We already know that this 'period' involves concentration camps
Will the ovens be supersized?
This morning on Fox News, Newt Gingrich claimed there is a "legitimate insurgency in Connecticut, which needs to be met head on," made up of people who say Iraq "is so hard, it is so frightening, it's so painful, can't we come home and hide?" Gingrich said that if the "insurgency" wins, "it will be the beginning of extraordinarily important period in American politics, and in American history."
I was pouring over the comments in this Oil Drum story
when I found this little nugget of data. The original source is BP PRUDHOE BAY ROYALTY TRUST (BPT) Form: 10-K Filing Date: 3/16/2006
Production from the Prudhoe Bay field has declined over the past five years. The average well production rate was about 546 barrels of oil per day in 2001, 375 barrels per day in 2002, 350 barrels per day in 2003, 317 barrels per day in 2004 and 293 barrels per day in 2005.
That's a fairly obvious trend.
Keep reading and you find that in 2005 "Oil Net to BP Interests" was 101,500 barrels per day, down from 144,100 in 2001.
Here is a question that I can't answer: What is the minimum operational threshold of the pipeline that BP shutdown?
They have to be able to pump a minimum amount of oil through the thing to make it work. Has the decline in production, documented in their own corporate filings, reached a point where the operation of the pipeline is affected?Deploy tinfoil hat:
Is it too far out to wonder if BP simply had to shut the thing down because they're not extracting enough oil?
Obviously, "rusty pipeline" sounds better than, "not enough oil to fill the pipeline."UPDATE: BP Neglected Prudhoe Maintenance Because Production Was Declining
G sent in a short email telling me to start Googling Prudhoe Bay whistleblowers, and that BP is running the operation there into the ground (no pun intended!) because the fields are running dry. Why sink more money into a drying up hole?
Or, as recent events may indicate, a dry hole.
This is from an Anchorage Daily News
article, Workers Convince BP Valve is Faulty
, dated, January 9, 2002:
Some workers believe BP, which runs Prudhoe, is finally replacing the valve only after facing criticism for poorly maintaining the pipes, valves and other machinery that handle more than a half-million barrels of oil a day.
These valves are like the brakes on your car, and the brakes don't work right now, said Marc Kovac, vice chairman of a union that represents about 200 BP workers on the western side of Prudhoe Bay.
The matter was dropped until last year, when workers publicly criticized BP for not keeping up with maintenance at Prudhoe as production has fallen. Production at the 24-year-old Prudhoe -- North America's largest oil field -- peaked 13 years ago.
BP has wanted to run the same equipment until the field runs dry, but we need this stuff in top shape for the life of the field. Otherwise, we're going to have problems, Kovac said.
And now, in a research note, AG Edwards analyst, Bruce Lanni, is telling investors to expect up to 10% less output when the pipeline is brought back online
"We estimate it could take between 2-3 months to get it back on line," Bruce Lanni, an industry analyst with A.G. Edwards, wrote in a research note. "However, there are no assurances that it will return to current capacity, given the complexities and age of the reservoirs. Thus, we would not be surprised to see volume losses in the area of 5 percent to 10 percent."
pipeline, get 10% less oil? That makes sense:If the diameter of the new pipeline is smaller.
And why would it have to be smaller?
You better be making progress with your garden.UPDATE 8/9/06: BP NEARLY HALVING DIAMETER OF PRUDHOE BAY PIPELINE
Original pipeline diameter 34 inches, replacement pipeline diameter 18 inches.
It's only a conspiracy theory on Cryptogon until it's verified as fact by the mainstream press several days later.
From BP PRUDHOE BAY ROYALTY TRUST (BPT) Form: 10-K Filing Date: 3/16/2006
Production from the Prudhoe Bay field is carried to Pump Station 1, the starting point for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, through two 34-inch diameter transit lines, one from each half of the Prudhoe Bay field.
The following is from the Associated Press, Oil Field Shutdown Raises More Questions by Allison Linn, 8/9/2006
BP has approached the Japanese firm JFE Steel Corp. and other steel producers about buying 18-inch pipe to replace the corroded sections at Prudhoe Bay, said David Belvin, senior technology manager of sales and service at JFE's Houston office.The new pipeline diameter will be nearly half the size of the original.
Previous analysis confirmed.
What does this mean, in terms of output?
Reader Ulf notes:
18" pipe is actually only about 28% of the size of a 34" pipe in cross-section. Nearly half-size equals just over a quarter in possible volume to be pumped, greatly reducing actual output!!
Again, Cryptogon leads in free, actionable intelligence and analysis on a critical issue. Why not put my skills to use on your specific project, issue or case?To All the Big Oil Company Employees Reading This:
If you feel like unburdening your soul, my PGP key is here
.Related: Sludge Buildup