Saudi Regime Delays Revolution with Payouts
June 9th, 2011Via: New York Times:
As one nation after another has battled uprisings across the Arab world, the one major country spared is also its richest — Saudi Arabia, where a fresh infusion of money has so far bought order.
The kingdom is spending $130 billion to pump up salaries, build housing and finance religious organizations, among other outlays, effectively neutralizing most opposition. King Abdullah began wielding his checkbook right after leaders in Tunisia and Egypt fell, seeking to placate the public and reward a loyal religious establishment. The king’s reserves, swollen by more than $214 billion in oil revenue last year, have insulated the royal family from widespread demands for change even while some discontent simmers.
Nice to read a well-informed analysis on this for a change, since most commentators have taken the easy route of soliciting the views of the same handful of exiled, publicity-hungry dissidents, as if they are broadly representative.
He is correct that the royal family has taken a multi-pronged approach, and the co-opting of the religious establishment is hugely important (though relying on their support may have consequences later). While he points out that “Saudis of all stripes say that they are less concerned about democratic elections than about fixing chronic problems…lack of housing, unemployment…corruption..” (so the financial largess may not be quite as cynical as it sounds) the fact that such a multi-layered strategy can be feasible shows just how deep the roots go.
There are two main issues with the way this is perceived in the West, as I see it. First, and this is shared in varying degrees, is that people tend to assume that since it is an autocratic government, the population as a whole simply “must” feel oppressed, chomping at the bit to break free. True, some may feel that way (Western-educated youth for ex), but if you ask ten different people on the streets of Riyadh for their views are on the future of the monarchy, you will get ten different answers. It is a mistake to think that Saudis in general are pushing for change; in fact, the king has run into strong headwinds implementing what changes he has put forth, such as a co-educational university. A recent poll, for example, on the pace of change found that 20% felt it was not fast enough, 20% just right, and 60% thought things were moving too fast. So the assumption that the royals are hunkered down in their palaces ruling over a seething poplace underlies much of the debate on this. In many ways, the royals have always had a more progressive orientation than the population, but as Prince Talal points out, those influential few at the top now are very resistent to change, which is worrisome for the future.
Secondly, another factor is that society is not as atomistic as here. Family and community opinion matter intensely. It is important to note that the protests in al-Qatif did not stop solely because of the police presence, but rather because of pressure from community elders. There was a similar influence countering the Day Of Rage movement, where a number of anti-protest Facebook groups attracted as much, if not more, support, than those advocating a turn-out. So the overwhelmingly conservative population which has been brought up to shun instability does act as a very strong countervailing force.
Nawwaf Obaid, an advisor to Prince Turki al-Faysal (the former Ambassador to the US) just wrote a piece here:
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/08/a-saudi-perspective-on-the-arab-uprisings/
Now, this can be easily dismissed as the official government line, but Obayd has written articles scathingly critical of American policy before, certainly not the “official” view. His patron Turki enjoys a sort of intentionally-ambiguous position as an influential, but slightly out-of-favor, royal. This allows the government to put forward strong viewpoints or test the waters through an unofficial channel, easily waved off if controversial, yet giving some insight into its more strategic thinking.
Along the same lines, from Joseph Kechichian, one of the top two or three experts on Saudi:
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/saudi-diplomacy-comes-into-its-own-1.819191
My impression overall is that while everyone is still looking at the situation in Saudi through the lens of the Arab uprising, they have moved on by now, so that way of thinking is already behind the curve.
Sorry to be so prolix in my first post :/