University of Illinois Crop Scientist: Planting After June 20 May Cause Yields to Shrink by Half
June 12th, 2008Via: Grainnet:
A costly deadline looms for many growers in the Midwest, as every day of waiting for the weather to cooperate to plant corn and soybeans reduces potential yields. Research indicates that Illinois growers who plant corn or soybeans near the end of June can expect a 50 percent reduction in crop yield, according to a University of Illinois agriculture expert.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that corn and soybean growers in several Midwestern states are behind schedule on their planting. A cooler and wetter-than-average spring has left Illinois and Indiana furthest behind on planted corn and soybeans. Several other states are lagging behind their normal planting schedules, but by a lesser margin.
In Illinois, 95 percent of the corn is planted and 88 percent has emerged, but less than half of that is reported to be in good or excellent condition. Fully 14 percent of the acres planted are in poor or very poor condition, with another 38 percent reported as fair. Those acres in poor or very poor condition may have to be replanted. In Illinois, the corn was 7 inches high as of June 9, compared to an average of 17 inches by this time in recent years.
Illinois crop sciences professor Emerson Nafziger says cool temperatures and the third wettest January-April since 1895 in Illinois have led to delays that are undercutting potential yields.
“This has been a bad spring by most measures,” said Illinois crop sciences professor Emerson Nafziger.” We keep seeing forecasts that look favorable and then that doesn’t happen. The chance of having above-average yields has diminished greatly.” Cool temperatures and the third wettest January-April since 1895 in Illinois have led to delays that are undercutting potential yields. Nafziger’s analysis of previous years’ corn planting data in Illinois determined that “we can expect 50 percent of the maximum yield when planting is done around June 15 to 20.”
Those growing soybeans in southern Illinois may get 50 percent of their maximum yield if they plant no later than June 25 to 30, he said.
Some growers — in southern Illinois especially — will have to replant as wet conditions have caused some seed to rot.
More: Floods Have Farmers Scrambling with Crops
More: Ohio Farmers Starting from Behind After Soggy Spring
More: Iowa Floods Claim Significant Acres
Oh, my. The waters are rising, both literally and metaphorically, aren’t they?
U.S. food crisis on the horizon? We’re already dealing with a concurrent oil shock and mortgage crisis. Some parts of the world are sustaining a water crisis (and have been for years). The U.S. west is always on the edge of a water crisis. The ducks are lining up. Fasten your seatbelts.
Most of the population centers west of the Mississippi River in the U.S. cannot sustain their population without modern technology. Las Vegas, Phoenix and Los Angeles wouldn’t exist without 20th century hydro engineering projects and air conditioning; no sane people would live there at those population densities without those two prerequisites.
Native American civilizations in the West, like the Anasazi, prospered in wet periods and disappeared once the water dried up. By some accounts, the long “wet” (haha) period in the Southwestern US that persisted through the last century is now over, and it’s likely that the past decade of drought in that area is not an aberration or even attributable to anthropic global warming, but is indicative of a 100 to 150-year recurring dry cycle.
I feel bad for the folks who live in areas that are incapable of sustaining their present population levels if current weather and farming trends continue. Sucks to be them, but I guess most folks don’t think or care about long-term agricultural sustainability. 🙂