This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It’s Opening Again

August 7th, 2026

Via: Bloomberg:

Near a windswept beach off the southern coast of Australia lies a weirdly accurate indicator of global conflict.

Sprawling over 80 hectares (200 acres) between a platypus stream and a penguin colony, the Dolphin Mine was for many years the biggest employer on King Island, a speck of 1,600 people halfway between Tasmania and the Australian mainland. The only other industries are cattle, tourism, fishing and kelp. As one of the world’s largest deposits of tungsten — a preternaturally tough metal used to harden bullets, shells and armor plating — the pit has risen and fallen through more than a century of war and peace.

First opened in 1917 to support munitions production in World War I, it shut down three years later when peace crashed the tungsten market. Starting up again in 1938 on the eve of World War II, it was saved twice more as conflict broke out first in Korea and then Vietnam. In 1990, exactly 12 months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it closed, seemingly for good. Water flooded its pit and underground tunnels, and the workers’ settlement became a ghost town.

Since the start of 2025, prices have jumped almost eight-fold, attracting the attention of many players, including the president of the United States. Donald Trump’s sons are collaborating with the family of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on a tungsten project in Kazakhstan, according to the New York Times.

Kevin Pallas is betting that global interest in tungsten will work in the Dolphin Mine’s favor. As executive chairman of the pit’s owner Group 6 Metals Ltd., he’s teamed up with a group of aging mineral investors to bring the flooded underground tunnels back into operation.

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