And Now… The Commercial Mortgage Blitzkrieg
June 12th, 2009Via: Bloomberg:
Investors in bonds that packaged $62 billion of debt for U.S. offices, hotels and shopping malls are bracing for more loan defaults through 2010 as Bank of America Merrill Lynch says landlords’ monthly payments may jump 20 percent or more.
Principal is coming due on the so-called partial interest- only loans as an 18-month-old recession saps demand for commercial real estate. About $179 billion of such loans were written between 2005 and 2007 and bundled into bonds, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
With soaring vacancies and falling rents, some cash- strapped borrowers will fail to cover the higher costs, said Andy Day, a commercial mortgage-backed securities analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York. About 87 percent of mortgages sold as securities in 2007 allowed owners to put off paying principal for several years or until maturity, compared with 48 percent in 2004, Morgan Stanley data show.
“The worst is yet to come,” MetLife Inc. Chief Investment Officer Steven Kandarian said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Typically there’s a lag between when the economy softens and when the defaults actually occur.”
Investors have already seen prices on top-rated senior debt drop below 70 cents on the dollar from 95 cents a year ago, according to Aaron Bryson, a commercial mortgage-backed securities analyst at Barclays Capital in New York.
Just a Stopgap
Interest-only mortgages were designed as a stopgap to allow owners to do renovations and absorb other costs. Owners delay paying principal for the first several years, lowering their initial monthly expenses. Partial interest-only loans allow for postponement of principal payments for a portion of the term. Full-term interest-only deals require the principal at maturity.
Loans that postpone principal payments had become the norm by the time the commercial-mortgage bond market peaked two years ago, said Frank Innaurato, managing director of analytical services at Realpoint LLC, a Horsham, Pennsylvania-based credit- rating service.
“The proliferation of interest-only loans was symptomatic of the loose underwriting standards of that time,” Innaurato said. “Borrowers were taking advantage of the best terms possible.”
Property owners turned to Wall Street to finance office towers, apartment complexes and hotels as banks bundled the debt and sold it to investors. A record $230 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities were sold in 2007, up from $93.3 billion in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley data. About $750 billion of such debt is outstanding, bank data show.
