IBM’s Watson Will Make Decisions About Cancer Care in 14 Hospitals in the U.S. and Canada
May 7th, 2015Via: BBC:
IBM’s supercomputer Watson will be used to make decisions about cancer care in 14 hospitals in the US and Canada, it has been announced.
Using computers to trawl through vast amounts of medical data speeds up the diagnosis process.
The system will help assess individual tumours and suggest which drug should be used to target them.
Doctors have welcomed the new computer which will learn from each case it examines.
“When you are dealing with cancer, it is always a race,” said Dr Lukas Wartman, assistant director of cancer genomics at the McDonnell Genome Institute at Washington University in St. Louis, one of those signed up to use the Watson system.
“As a cancer patient myself, I know how important genomic information can be.
“Unfortunately, translating cancer-sequencing results into potential treatment options often takes weeks with a team of experts to study just one patient’s tumour and provide results to guide treatment decisions. Watson appears to help dramatically reduce that timeline,” he explained.
Thoughts on Tesla’s Powerwall
May 6th, 2015Update: 11 May 2015: Tesla Q1 2015 Earnings Call
More info was released on the recent Tesla earnings call. The Powerwall will be charged directly from the DC from the solar panels and the battery will output into an existing string inverter. At one point they say that the Powerwall looks like the solar array to the inverter. Still loads of unanswered questions, but these were two huge points. Also, the demand is completely off the rails. I’ve been one of the very skeptical voices on this and it turns out that tens of thousands of residential and industrial customers and installers don’t care about the details, they just want it. Tesla has already sold out until the middle of 2016.
Definitely worth a listen.
I’ve excerpted a lot of the material about the Powerwall and Powerpack from the transcript of the call. I’ve bolded the parts that I found particularly interesting:
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean, let me just talk more broadly about the response to the Powerwall and Powerpack because I don’t think that’s really the question you should be asking. The response has been overwhelming, okay, like crazy. In the course of like less than a week, we’ve had 38,000 reservations for the Powerwall, 2,500 reservations for Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies for heavy industrial work. So, typically Powerpack, it’s like at least 10 Powerpacks per installation. So if there’s 2,500 reservations, actually 25,000 Powerpacks.
Powerwall also we suspect is probably an average of number of Powerpacks, it’s probably 1.5 to 2 per installation. So, 38,000 reservations is more, like 50,000 or 60,000 actual Powerwalls.
So, I mean, there’s, like, no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year and we’re basically like sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It was just crazy. We had 2,500 requests from companies that want to distribute and install the Powerwall and Powerpack. We can’t even respond to them. We have to, like, triage our response to those who want to be a distributor.
So, it’s like crazy off the hook. Yeah. And it seems to have gone super viral. For the specific case of SolarCity, what they are referring to is that there’s two versions of the Powerwall. There is the daily cycling version and there is the Power backup version. One is energy optimized and one is daily-cycling-optimized.
For the daily-cycling-optimized one, the economics, it is true in the U.S. with rare exception are more expensive than utility. So if somebody wants to do a daily cycling, basically go off grid. It’s going to be more expensive than being on grid. This doesn’t mean that people won’t buy it because there are people who want to go off grid on principle, or they just want to be independent. And that’s what the SolarCity comment is about.
Jeffrey B. Straubel – Chief Technology Officer
Yeah. It might also be worth noting that SolarCity doesn’t yet operate in Europe and the main target application for the daily cycling battery pack was actually were several markets not in the Continental U.S. and particularly Germany and Australia are very strong markets where it does make economic sense today based on the feed in tariff and the electricity rate structures in those countries. So, SolarCity’s comments I think need to be sort of put in the regional context.
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. SolarCity is only operating in the U.S. And I mean, the Powerwall, it will be available from SolarCity and from other installers in both configurations. But if someone is doing a daily cycling application, they’re doing it out of – because they specifically want grid independence and there are some number of people who will want to do that and that’s good.
And it’s also important to appreciate even for say the power backup systems that you always have power in the event of power outage, if like let’s say that appeal to like 2% of households in the U.S. or 1%, that’s 1 million households, like it is 1 person in a 100 care about having battery backup in the event of a utility outage, probably. We couldn’t even support a small fraction of that right now. So, it’s kind of a moot point.
…
And the daily cycler one, I mean, we expect it to be able to daily cycle for something on the order of 15 years. Actually the warranty period would be a little bit less than that. But we expect it to be something that’s in the kind of 5,000 cycle range capability, whereas the high-energy pack is more like around the maybe depending upon on how it’s used anywhere from 1,000 cycles to 1,500 cycles.
…
And I should say like the most of our stationary storage sales to be at the utility or heavy industrial scale, it’s probably – and just a guess because early days – 5 to 10 times more megawatt hours will be deployed at the utility in heavy industrial scale than at the consumer scale.
…
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
So the Powerpack would be the one that’s like the heavy duty, like the big production sales one, not so much the Powerwall. Powerwall is great, but like I said, it’s probably only 10% to 20% that the size of the Powerpack demand.
…
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I mean, clearly, given the very high demand that we’re seeing for Tesla Energy products, we’re actually trying to figure out if we can go from like our current production target of like 35-gigawatt hours at the cell level and 50 at the pack level in our Nevada plant to maybe 50% more than that or even higher because just the sheer volume of demand here is just staggering. We could easily have the entire Gigafactory just do stationary storage.
…
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, because, like, we’re fairly confident at this point like so that the entire Gigafactory output could just do stationary storage. I mean it’s like, wow, okay. Well, we need to make cars too, so we’re just trying to make the factory bigger. That’s like the total logic. It’s lot more complicated than that.
…
I think there are a few points of clarification that should be made regarding the Powerwall, because a lot of people are confused about the whole inverter issue. So, the Powerwall does include a DC to DC inverter, and that can interface directly with a solar panel installation.
And if somebody has a solar panel installation, they already will have a DC to AC inverter for the solar panel system, and so no incremental DC to AC inverter is needed.
…
But like if you already have a solar installation or you’re going to get one, the DC/AC inverter is already there. That’s an important point in considering the cost of the system. And then, the operating temperature – it’s actually capable of operating at a much wider band of temperature. So we got to fix that specification that’s stated on the website.
…
Jeffrey B. Straubel – Chief Technology Officer
Yeah. And we’ve looked at pretty much every chemistry couple. They could possibly be relevant for this and are confident what we’re using is going to be the best. But if there’s something better we can also adjust and change over time. So there’s a lot of flexibility.
…
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. It’s not like we’re like wedded to a particular chemistry or anything like that, we just want to use the best chemistry. Like whatever little can that contains that cathode and anode and separator and electrolyte, whatever the best constituents of that can, that’s what we will want to use. So we’d love it if somebody could come up with a better internal chemistry for the cell. But it’s worth noting that nobody has sent us anything, a sample cell that’s better than the cell we’re producing, or that something that we will produce in the Gigafactory. So, we’d love it if somebody would do that, they just haven’t.
So, there’s like always things, which are big on promise and short on delivery when it comes to battery chemistry, and it’s just a real hard problem. And then hardly a week goes by that there’s not some alleged breakthrough in batteries, but what they’ll do is they’ll cite the power, but not the energy or they’ll forget to mention that it only lasts for 50 cycles or uses incredibly exotic raw materials.
Jeffrey B. Straubel – Chief Technology Officer
Or one component under the battery pulled separately.
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, exactly. It’s just not – it’s not like a – it’s not the full picture. So it’s not like we don’t want a better chemistry to exist than what we’re using. We’d love it if there was such a thing and I’m sure there will be improvements over time and we’ll implement them as soon as they are remotely production-ready.
…
Rod A. Lache – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Okay. And just a clarification on the comment about the fact that the DC/AC inverter is already there for solar, does the fact that it needs to be bidirectional change the nature of the cost or not really?
Jeffrey B. Straubel – Chief Technology Officer
No. Not in most cases. Because if you already have solar, typically the energy to charge the battery can come from the solar panel. So I think maybe one way to think of it is that the battery pack, the Powerwall, with its internal DC to DC converter can act much like a solar panel. It can match voltage with a solar panel array…
Jeffrey B. Straubel – Chief Technology Officer
…and it can feed power back into that. So the existing inverter doesn’t particularly see a big change.
…
Jeffrey B. Straubel – Chief Technology Officer
Well, some of the different revenue streams you’re talking about are kind of mixed between Powerpack and Powerwall. The BMS system lives inside the battery pack in both cases, but with the Powerpack and the more utility-sized installations, there, we often will have sort of a site master computer or master controller that controls multiple Powerpacks and that site controller is what then interfaces to the utility or maybe a commercial customer to sort of run the scheduled charge and discharge that would be appropriate for a given application.
On the Powerwall, it’s a bit of a different situation. Still the BMS lives inside the battery pack, but in some cases, the inverter may be the system that’s deciding how to manage energy in the overall house. And that can depend on which type of inverter we’re using and how that works. And in terms of the size, we really – for Powerwall, again, we optimized the size around what was the most common photovoltaic size and also what we felt was kind of the smallest modular increment for backup. And it’s pretty key to note here that you can install multiple Powerwalls together.
…
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
…man, there’s just no way we can meet the demand that we’re seeing right now. And so, we got to scale stationary storage as fast as possible.
…
Trip S. Chowdhry – Global Equities Research LLC
Thank you. A quick question, two quick questions. First is regarding the residences which may not have the solar panels, and say that residence goes and buys two Powerwalls. Does that customer have to buy two inverters or one inverter is sufficient for as many Powerwalls the customer buys?
Elon Reeve Musk – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Yes. It’s basically whatever the capability of that inverter is. So, typically, a inverter would be capable of handling – one inverter is probably capable of handling, depending on the situation, up to maybe four or five Powerwalls.
— End Update —
A few people have asked for my thoughts on Tesla’s energy storage announcement from last week.
For most Americans with grid-tie solar, the 7kw Powerwall almost certainly doesn’t make economic sense. As a backup solution, the 10kw version might be considered, but my guess is that a more traditional generator is a better way to go at this time, assuming a generator can be used.
In places like Germany, Australia, Hawaii and maybe parts of California, the 7kw Powerwall would be much closer to being viable.
BUT:
For some inexplicable reason, Tesla has not released meaningful specifications on the Powerwall systems. We don’t, for example, know anything about how the Powerwall integrates with existing solar power systems.
How does it actually charge?
Unknown.
What is the DC voltage range on the charging side? Does it include MPPT?
Unknown. Unknown.
Can one use an existing string inverter to output AC from the Powerwall?
Unknown. SMA told me that they have no comment because they have not been included in any testing of the Powerwall. In other words, they’re in the dark with the rest of us. This is incredible (not in a good way), since SMA is the #1 inverter manufacturer in the world.
How does the Powerwall play with the most popular inverter solution in the Americas (Enphase)?
Unknown, but probably very incompatible.
X capacity loss after Y full discharge cycles?
Unknown. Unknown.
The unknowns go on and on.
Tesla’s announcement was designed for consumption by people who know next to nothing about solar power or battery storage and this includes most of the media. The specs Tesla released are unbelievably—almost hilariously—incomplete. My suspicion is that the installed cost per kWh for the residential Powerwall models is going to be much higher (2x, 3x?) than the wholesale prices Tesla has published. Maybe keeping these facts quiet served to make tastier soundbites. I don’t know.
Now, I say all of the above as probably the most rabid advocate of solar power you’re likely to encounter, as a solar user with 5kw of panels on my own roof, as a solar power sales consultant, and as a potential customer and sales consultant for the Powerwall.
“It has all of the integrated safety systems, the thermal controls, the DC to DC converter. It’s designed to work very well with solar systems right out of the box.”
—Elon Musk
I want to believe.
Tesla, please just release the real Powerwall specifications and wiring diagrams for different installation scenarios. Simple.
Regardless of what the reality is, I think Tesla is going to sell a shitload of Powerwalls, probably far more than they will be able to produce in the near future. There is enough hype and excitement that people will pull the trigger by the tens of thousands without really knowing what they’re doing.
I’m doubling down on what I told all of you before the announcement:
Whatever Tesla announces today, my personal and professional advice (all of my grid-tie PV customers are now asking about batteries) for the average residential solar user is to wait at least until Tesla’s Gigafactory has ramped production.
What?
Wait two or three more years?
Yep. Definitely. Wait.
I’m less familiar with the industrial and utility side of things, but the Tesla Powerpack looks to be profoundly disruptive in those spheres. If you’re a company or utility that’s already using some mix of wind or solar and/or have backup requirements running into the thousands of kWh or more, Tesla is easily at the top of the heap.
Robots to Build New Google HQ
May 6th, 2015Via: Architects Journal:
An army of robot-crane hybrids will be assembled to build Google’s new headquarters in California, according to the latest design papers posted by the IT giant
Mock-ups of the so-called ‘crabots’ are featured in lengthy planning documents submitted to the City of Mountain View Council in Silicon Valley and seen by AJ this week.
As revealed last July, the tech firm has commissioned Thomas Heatherwick, BIG and engineers AKTII to design its extended HQ, which will house 20,000 Google staff.
The ‘crabots’ are described in the documents as a mash-up of flexible crane and robotic machine.
Much of the internal design of Google’s new HQ will depend on the success of the robots which will roam under the gigantic canopies of the sprawling site and lift and shift pre-fabricated components, furniture and services.
Surveillance Planes Spotted in Sky for Days After West Baltimore Rioting
May 6th, 2015Via: Washington Post:
What Shayne’s online rumination helped unveil was a previously secret, multi-day campaign of overhead surveillance by city and federal authorities during a period of historic political protest and unrest.
…
A government official familiar with the operations, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss matters not approved for public release, said the flights were aerial support that Baltimore police officials requested from the FBI.
Flight records maintained by the Web site Flightradar24 show two Cessnas — one a propeller plane, the other a small jet — flying precise formations over the part of West Baltimore where the rioting had occurred. The smaller Cessna conducted flights in the area on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, always after dark. The planes used infrared technology to monitor movements of people in the vicinity, the official said.
MIT: Solar Has Best Potential for Meeting Humanity’s Energy Needs
May 6th, 2015Disclosure: I sell solar power systems in New Zealand.
—
Via: Computerworld:
A massive study on solar power by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) came to two main conclusions: Solar energy holds the best potential for meeting the planet’s long-term energy needs while reducing greenhouse gasses and federal and state governments must do more to promote its development.
The main goal of U.S. solar policy should be to build the foundation for a massive scale-up of solar generation over the next few decades, the study said.
“What the study shows is that our focus needs to shift toward new technologies and policies that have the potential to make solar a compelling economic option,” said Richard Schmalensee, a Professor Emeritus of Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
Related: Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables
France: More Surveillance
May 6th, 2015Via: BBC:
The French parliament has approved a controversial law strengthening the intelligence services, with the aim of preventing Islamist attacks.
The law on intelligence-gathering, adopted by 438 votes to 86, was drafted after three days of attacks in Paris in January, in which 17 people died.
The Socialist government says the law is needed to take account of changes in communications technology.
But critics say it is a dangerous extension of mass surveillance.
They argue that it gives too much power to the state and threatens the independence of the digital economy.
First Road-Legal Big Rig That Can Drive Itself
May 6th, 2015Via: The Verge:
Last night, atop the Hoover Dam, Freightliner unveiled the Inspiration Truck — a partially autonomous big rig that could save lives, mitigate driver fatigue and stress, and reduce CO2 emissions up to 5 percent. Daimler, which owns Freightliner, says it has done more than 10,000 miles of testing on the truck. And now it’s street-legal, having been officially granted one of Nevada’s “Autonomous Vehicle” license plates (the first for a commercial truck) by Nevada governor Brian Sandoval at a media event before the unveiling.
The Inspiration Truck and Daimler’s underlying “Highway Pilot” technology isn’t meant to replace truck drivers completely. Instead, it’s meant to solve the problem of fatigued driving, something that plagues truck drivers who have to pull long shifts. According to Daimler, 90 percent of truck crashes result from driver error, and in one out of every eight of those cases driver fatigue plays a role.
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhard, Daimler AG’s truck boss, says that the Inspiration Truck mitigates that problem significantly. At a media event before the unveiling, he spoke about how taking control away from drivers positively impacts their ability to focus for long periods of time. “We measured brain activity with or without autonomous function, and it clearly shows that driver drowsiness decreases by about 25 percent when the truck is operating in autonomous mode,” he said.
Fracking Chemicals Contaminated Drinking Water in Pennsylvania
May 6th, 2015Via: The Verge:
Traces of a chemical compound used in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have been found in drinking water at three homes in Pennsylvania, according to a study published this week. The findings of the study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, add to growing concerns over the public health risks involved with fracking, which uses water, sand, and chemicals to release shale gas from rocks deep below the Earth’s surface.
“This is the first documented and published demonstration of toxic compounds escaping from uncased boreholes in shale gas wells and moving long distances” into drinking water, Susan Brantley, a geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University and one of the study’s authors, told the Associated Press.
Cops No Longer Need a Warrant When Seeking Cellphone Records from Wireless Carriers
May 6th, 2015Via: Vice:
Cops no longer need a warrant when seeking cellphone records from wireless carriers in the US a federal appeals court ruled on Tuesday—reversing its own decision from last year.
The United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit ruled that citizens have no expectation of privacy when it comes to records held by a third party, such as a cellphone company.
New GPS Technology Identifies Locations within Centimeters
May 5th, 2015Via: Independent:
New GPS technology that can identify locations accurate to within centimetres could open the way for huge advances in virtual reality and mobile mapping, scientists believe.
Researchers at the Cockrell School of Engineering at The University of Texas said the centimetre-accurate GPS-based positioning system could allow unmanned aerial vehicles to deliver packages to a specific spot on a consumer’s back porch.
…
Humphreys and his team in the Radionavigation Lab have built a low-cost system that reduces location errors from the size of a large car to the size of a penny coin – a more than 100 times increase in accuracy.
