Telling Swiss Secrets: A Banker’s Betrayal

August 6th, 2010

Via: Global Post:

It’s the inner sanctum of Swiss banking — the heavily-guarded nexus between numbered Swiss bank accounts and their owner’s good names — and it’s the rare American that is allowed entry.

Bradley Birkenfeld was one of the few Americans who held the keys to the kingdom. A Boston-born, high-flying, cross-border banker at Switzerland’s premier financial institution, UBS, he had access to the kind of secret account information that American law enforcement had only dreamed of through all the decades that terrorists, dictators, arms dealers, mafia dons and wealthy tax cheats had hidden behind the fortress of secrecy that Swiss banking promised.

Subterranean bomb-proof vaults and state-of-the-art security systems are the superficial trappings of Swiss banking and its culture of secrecy, but the cornerstone of protection for its clients is the numbered account system that offers all but foolproof privacy. Or so they thought.

At UBS, clients’ names and their account information are divided irreconcilably between separate computer servers in secret locations. Even for a world-class hacker with free roam of electronic bank records, identifying the owner of a numbered account is literally “Mission: Impossible.” Nowhere do names and numbers appear side-by-side.

At vaunted UBS, the only seam of vulnerability resided in nothing more advanced than the kind of old-school card catalog you might find in a local library.

At the start of business each morning, private bankers like Birkenfeld, then a director in the wealth management division of UBS, would check in at combination vaults to pull their “racks” — wooden trays of 4×5 paper index cards that are the Achilles heel of Swiss secrecy. Printed on each confidential client card — in plain, unencrypted typeset — is the client’s name, account and safety deposit box numbers, the fees paid, and home addresses and unique passwords — secret challenge phrases known only to the banker and the client that are used to verify identity on the phone (“Rose and Eagle” on a surreptitiously photocopied card Birkenfeld showed me).

“If I was really devious … I would have just taken my gym bag, slid them in, walked out the door, hopped on a plane,” Birkenfeld laughed during our interview.

…

The information Bradley Birkenfeld eventually provided — first to the DOJ, then to investigators from the IRS, SEC, Department of Treasury and U.S. Senate — would set off cascading criminal and civil investigations into UBS. Within two years, it would bring down UBS’ entire U.S. cross-border banking division and compel intensive negotiations between the highest levels of the American and Swiss governments.

The bank would admit to intentionally subverting U.S. tax laws and defrauding the U.S. government by sending dozens of unregistered bankers, Birkenfeld among them, to the United States on thousands of illegal trips to facilitate tax evasion schemes for wealthy U.S.-based clients — a fraud hiding as much as $20 billion in secret undeclared accounts and earning UBS up to $200 million a year in ill-begotten profits.


Wheat Heads for Biggest Gain in Half a Century on Export Bans

August 6th, 2010

Via: Bloomberg:

Wheat headed for the biggest weekly gain in half a century on concern other countries may follow an export ban by Russia, and may reach $10 a bushel, a price not seen since the global food crisis in 2008.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Kazakhstan and Belarus should also suspend shipments as Russia announced a ban on grain exports from Aug. 15 to yearend. “It’s got $10 written all over it,” said Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty, who on Aug. 3 correctly forecast the surge to $8.50. Wheat was last at $10 in March 2008, and a gain to that price would be up 23 percent from yesterday’s close.

Russia’s ban may benefit rival producers, including the U.S., the largest exporter, Australia and Argentina, according to Rabobank. Wheat prices have doubled in less than two months as drought slashed the harvest in Russia, the third-largest grower, and rains cut Canadian output. The surge may herald a new food crisis as corn and other staples jump, said a trade group from Indonesia, Asia’s top wheat buyer.

“This situation is reminiscent of the irrational moves already seen in the past, for example at the start of 2008,” Bourges, France-based farm adviser Offre et Demande Agricole said in a comment today. “It’s always very hard to say where prices can end up in such conditions.”


Irish Unemployment Reaches 13.7 Percent, 16-Year High

August 6th, 2010

Via: Bloomberg:

Ireland’s unemployment rate has reached a 16-year high of 13.7 percent as idle university students and laid-off professionals joined the welfare lines, the Central Statistics Office reported Thursday.

Economists said July’s rise from the previous monthly rate of 13.4 percent was sharper than expected. The government said it reflected, in part, a surge of welfare claims from university students who have failed to find summer jobs.


Pakistan Floods Affect 12 Million

August 6th, 2010

Via: Al Jazeera:

About 12 million people have now been affected by Pakistan’s worst floods in 80 years, disaster officials have said, raising previous estimates by three times.

Nadeem Ahmed, chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority, said that the figure only applied to the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and central Punjab provinces, with figures from the southern Sindh province not yet available.

Previous estimates had said that four million Pakistanis have been affected, a reflection of the rapidly growing scale of the disaster.

The new figures come as Pakistan braces for yet more rains in areas already badly hit by torrential monsoon downpours that have caused devastation, washing away villages and destroying swathes of agricultural land.

“We’re forecasting widespread rains in the country, especially in flood-affected areas,” Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, director general of Pakistan’s meteorological department, said.

More than 1600 people been killed by the floods, which started last week when torrential monsoon downpours hit the north-west of the country. Swollen rivers are now flowing south, raising fears that further destruction lies ahead.


New Jersey City Prepares to Shut Down Library System

August 6th, 2010

Via: Philadelphia Enquirer:

Camden is preparing to permanently shut its library system by the end of the year, potentially leaving residents of the impoverished city among the few in the United States unable to borrow a library book free.

At an emotional but sparsely attended meeting of the library board Thursday, its president, Martin McKernan, said the city’s three libraries cannot stay open past Dec. 31 because of severe budget cuts by Mayor Dana L. Redd.

“It’s extraordinary, it’s appalling,” McKernan said.

All materials in the libraries would be donated, auctioned, stored, or destroyed. That includes 187,000 books, historical documents, artifacts, and electronic equipment. Keeping materials in the shuttered buildings is a fire hazard, officials said, and would make them vulnerable to vandalism and vermin.

“They don’t want to see our children grasp a future, but go down the toilet,” said Jean Kehner, who described herself as a Camden resident for 76 years.

Redd is facing a $28 million projected deficit stemming from reductions in state aid and a long-standing lack of taxable property. She is planning deep cuts in all departments, and she told McKernan last month that she would slash funding to the 105-year-old library system by about two-thirds.

Because not even one of the three libraries could stay open in 2011 on such limited support, all 21 employees would be laid off, McKernan said.


U.S. Government Funding Program to Train Foreign Workers So American Firms Can Outsource Jobs

August 5th, 2010

In other news:

The number of Americans who are receiving food stamps rose to a record 40.8 million in May as the jobless rate hovered near a 27-year high, the government reported yesterday.

Via: Information Week:

Federally-backed program aims to help outsourcers in South Asia become more fluent in areas like Java programming—and the English language.

Despite President Obama’s pledge to retain more hi-tech jobs in the U.S., a federal agency run by a hand-picked Obama appointee has launched a $36 million program to train workers, including 3,000 specialists in IT and related functions, in South Asia.

Following their training, the tech workers will be placed with outsourcing vendors in the region that provide offshore IT and business services to American companies looking to take advantage of the Asian subcontinent’s low labor costs.

Under director Rajiv Shah, the United States Agency for International Development will partner with private outsourcers in Sri Lanka to teach workers there advanced IT skills like Enterprise Java (Java EE) programming, as well as skills in business process outsourcing and call center support. USAID will also help the trainees brush up on their English language proficiency.

USAID is contributing about $10 million to the effort, while its private partners are investing roughly $26 million.

“To help fill workforce gaps in BPO and IT, USAID is teaming up with leading BPO and IT/English language training companies to establish professional IT and English skills development training centers,” the U.S. Embassy in Colombo, Sri Lanka, said in a statement posted Friday on its Web site.

“Courses in Business Process Outsourcing, Enterprise Java, and English Language Skills will be offered at no charge to over 3,000 under- and unemployed students who will then participate in on-the-job training schemes with private firms,” the embassy said.

USAID is also partnering with Sri Lankan companies in other industries, including construction and garment manufacturing, to help create 10,000 new jobs in the country, which is still recovering from a 30-year civil war that ended in 2009.

But it’s the outsourcing program that’s sure to draw the most fire from critics. While Obama acknowledged that occupations such as garment making don’t add much value to the U.S. economy, he argued relentlessly during his presidential run that lawmakers needed to do more to keep hi-tech jobs in IT, biological sciences, and green energy in the country.

He also accused the Bush administration of creating tax loopholes that made it easier for U.S. companies to place work offshore in low-cost countries.


40 Billionaires Pledge to Give Away Half of Wealth

August 5th, 2010

Yep, we can’t get those flying syringes fast enough.

Via: MSNBC:

A little over a year after Bill Gates and Warren Buffett began hatching a plan over dinner to persuade America’s wealthiest people to give most of their fortunes to charity, more than three-dozen individuals and families have agreed to take part, campaign organizers announced Wednesday.

In addition to Buffett and Gates — America’s two wealthiest individuals, with a combined net worth of $90 billion, according to Forbes — 38 other billionaires have signed The Giving Pledge. They include New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, entertainment executive Barry Diller, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, energy tycoon T. Boone Pickens, media mogul Ted Turner, David Rockefeller, film director George Lucas and investor Ronald Perelman.


WHEAT HALTED; RUSSIA IMPOSES EXPORT BAN

August 5th, 2010

In other news, Speculators Rediscover Agricultural Commodities.

Via: Reuters:

Chicago wheat markets jumped 8 percent to near two-year highs on Thursday, twice triggering trading curbs to restore order before easing back after Russia said it would temporarily halt grain exports.

Russia’s worst drought on record has devastated crops in parts of the country and sent international grain prices soaring as markets placed bets that without shipments from one of the world’s leading exporters, global supplies would be restricted.

Wheat has risen seven of the past eight days at the Chicago Board of Trade and buying by funds and traders spilled across the grain markets. Corn and soybeans were 2 and 0.5 percent higher, respectively.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed an order banning grain and flour exports from August 15 to December 31, with a spokesman saying this would apply to contracts that had been already signed.

The news confirmed an earlier report from Interfax that kicked off the buying.


Google’s CEO: Technology Good, Anonymity “Dangerous”

August 5th, 2010

Via: Cnet:

For those concerned with privacy, Google CEO Eric Schmidt gave them a few more things to start worrying about.


Cisco’s Sub Second Melt Up and Identifying Crop Circles in the High Frequency Market Data

August 5th, 2010

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

Last week, Cisco (CSCO) was halted because the new “circuit breaker” rule kicked in. The price had moved more than 10% in five minutes (ABC/Reuters):

Trading in Cisco Systems Inc shares was briefly halted on Thursday after triggering a circuit breaker.

According to the Nasdaq website, trading was paused due to a move of 10 percent or more in Cisco’s price in a five-minute period.

Cisco fell 1.7 percent at $23 in mid-day trading.

Thomson Reuters data showed a single trade at $26, which would have represented a more than 10 percent move. The halt started at around 10:41 a.m. EDT (14:41 GMT), and trading resumed five minutes later.

NYSE Amex, where the trade occurred, said in an e-mail that all trades will stand after it had reviewed those executed at 10:41 a.m. between $23.67 and $26.

Unless you know a bit about how Cisco behaves in the market, you might not have thought much more about this.

I used to watch Cisco all day and it just doesn’t move violently like that. CSCO is an extremely liquid stock. The daily volume (3 month average) is around 60 million shares. It meanders in a slow, nauseating grind, a penny at a time. I thought I’d bring up a minute chart to see how the action played out during this halt event.

There was just one whacked out upper candle shadow on the minute chart; it actually looked like bad data, but it wasn’t.

I went to a 30 second interval. Same weird upper candle shadow. Ten second. Same thing again. Five second. Two second.

One second, and still, just one upper shadow to $26.

“What the… This happened in under a second?!” I mumbled to myself in total disbelief. The circuit breaker is meant to kick in on moves that happen over five minutes. What all the news about this incident on Cisco fails to mention is that the circuit breaking move happened in under a second.

So, I was looking at a one second chart that contained the whole incident! Here it is:

Cisco Halt Event - One Second Interval

Cisco Halt Event - One Second Interval

I had to drill down further, so I brought it up in tick.

Tick data shows us every change to the best bid and ask as well as the volume. Tick data has no fixed time component. The number of ticks that occur in a second, minute or hour depends on the instrument in question and the activity at any given time.

For mere mortals, tick data is the most detailed data available, and this is what you see below (Data: IQFeed, Charts: MultiCharts):

Cisco Halt Event - One Tick Interval

Cisco Halt Event - One Tick Interval

There’s a lot of room for the machines to iterate inside of one second, and so, for a few fractions of a second last Thursday, all Hell broke loose.

CSCO, the stock that normally grinds pennies for minutes or hours at a time, gapped violently (almost three bucks) higher as sell side liquidity disappeared. It didn’t just happen once, or twice inside that fateful second. It was the third gap higher that was far enough to trigger the kill switch.

This was no normal ramp job, with the price moving sharply higher in an orderly way. The sell side liquidity disappeared several levels deep, for some number of cycles, inside this second, and someone’s bot just kept trying to find shares higher and higher, until the exchange pulled the plug.

When, exactly, did this happen?

Well, that’s an interesting question. We’re looking inside the one second bar that ended 7/29/2010 10:41:34. I can’t be more precise than that because my tick data is only time stamped with seconds.

I don’t know who or what took out the sell side of the CSCO book, during those fractions of a second last week, but if this can happen to a stock like Cisco… You should be extremely concerned if you have more than pocket lint riding on stock market. This isn’t a functional market, where buyers and sellers are efficiently determining prices by their activities. This is machines juggling chainsaws.

The only reason I noticed was because a wheel came off the cart. Keep in mind, however, that this kind of thing is happening in all electronic markets, every trading day.

Now, let’s turn to the The Atlantic piece, “Market Data Firm Spots the Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders,” which I’ve referenced below. A firm called Nanex, LLC. provides a set of tools that are used for developing trading systems that are capable of operating in timeframes measured in nanoseconds. Nanex started finding wild patterns of activity in these tiny slices of time. It’s a fascinating article, mainly because nobody has any good explanations as to what the Hell is really going on here. (Don’t miss Nanex’s Crop Circle of the Day – Quote Stuffing and Strange Sequences page.)

What’s even more fascinating is that millions of people are trusting their financial futures to this hyped up game of pong that has been left to run in autonomous mode.

Via: The Atlantic:

Mysterious and possibly nefarious trading algorithms are operating every minute of every day in the nation’s stock exchanges.

What they do doesn’t show up in Google Finance, let alone in the pages of the Wall Street Journal. No one really knows how they operate or why. But over the past few weeks, Nanex, a data services firm has dragged some of the odder algorithm specimens into the light.

The trading bots visualized in the stock charts in this story aren’t doing anything that could be construed to help the market. Unknown entities for unknown reasons are sending thousands of orders a second through the electronic stock exchanges with no intent to actually trade. Often, the buy or sell prices that they are offering are so far from the market price that there’s no way they’d ever be part of a trade. The bots sketch out odd patterns with their orders, leaving patterns in the data that are largely invisible to market participants.

In fact, it’s hard to figure out exactly what they’re up to or gauge their impact. Are they doing something illicit? If so, what? Or do the patterns emerge spontaneously, a kind of mechanical accident? If so, why? No matter what the answers to these questions turn out to be, we’re witnessing a market phenomenon that is not easily explained. And it’s really bizarre.

It’s thanks to Nanex, the data services firm, that we know what their handiwork looks like at all. In the aftermath of the May 6 “flash crash,” which saw the Dow plunge nearly 1,000 points in just a few minutes, the company spent weeks digging into their market recordings, replaying the day’s trades and trying to understand what happened. Most stock charts show, at best, detail down to the one-minute scale, but Nanex’s data shows much finer slices of time. The company’s software engineer Jeffrey Donovan stared and stared at the data. He began to think that he could see odd patterns emerge from the numbers. He had a hunch that if he plotted the action around a stock sequentially at the millisecond range, he’d find something. When he tried it, he was blown away by the pattern. He called it “The Knife.”

…

“When I pulled up that first chart, we saw ‘the knife,’ we said, that’s certainly algorithmic and that is weird. We continued to refine our software, honing the algorithms we use to find this stuff,” Donovan told me. Now that he knows where and how to look, he could spend all day for weeks just picking out these patterns in the market data. The examples that he posts online are just the ones that look the most interesting, but at any given moment, some kind of bot is making moves like this in the stock exchange.

“We probably get 10 stocks in any 10 minutes where we see something like this,” Donovan said. “It’s happening all the time.”

These odd bots don’t really make sense within the normal parameters of the high-frequency trading business. High-frequency traders do employ algorithms to look for patterns in the market and exploit them, but their goal is making winning trades, not simply sending quotes into the financial ether.

…

But the algorithms we see at work here are different. They don’t serve any function in the market. University of Pennsylvania finance professor, Michael Kearns, a specialist in algorithmic trading, called the patterns “curious,” and noted that it wasn’t immediately apparent what such order placement strategies might do.

Donovan thinks that the odd algorithms are just a way of introducing noise into the works. Other firms have to deal with that noise, but the originating entity can easily filter it out because they know what they did. Perhaps that gives them an advantage of some milliseconds. In the highly competitive and fast HFT world, where even one’s physical proximity to a stock exchange matters, market players could be looking for any advantage.

“They are moving the high-frequency services as close to the exchanges as possible because even the speed of light matters,” in such a competitive market, said Stanford finance professor Peter Hansen.


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