Too Big to Fail List a Secret

October 30th, 2009

Via: Reuters:

U.S. regulators on Thursday scoffed at the administration’s plan to not publicly identify financial firms the government considers “systemic,” saying such a list cannot remain under wraps for long and federal laws could mandate disclosure.

“It’s likely that most, if not all, of the institutions so identified would eventually be known to the public,” said Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, to the House Financial Services Committee during a hearing on systemic risk.

“While there is a reason to try to avoid an increase in moral hazard, we should probably be realistic here about what will and won’t be known.”

The Obama administration, in draft legislation released on Tuesday, proposed that there be no public list, the thinking being that listed firms could be perceived as too big to fail.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner even acknowledged that the public will know who these firms are, but said the government act of publishing such a list could send the wrong message.

“What you don’t want to do is, by identifying a list of companies that are going to be held to tougher standards, create an expectation the government will step in and protect them if they screw up,” he said at the same hearing.


More Than 40% of President Obama’s Top-Level Fundraisers Given Posts in His Administration

October 30th, 2009

Via: USA Today:

More than 40% of President Obama’s top-level fundraisers have secured posts in his administration, from key executive branch jobs to diplomatic postings in countries such as France, Spain and the Bahamas, a USA TODAY analysis finds.

Twenty of the 47 fundraisers that Obama’s campaign identified as collecting more than $500,000 have been named to government positions, the analysis found.

Overall, about 600 individuals and couples raised money from their friends, family members and business associates to help fund Obama’s presidential campaign. USA TODAY’s analysis found that 54 have been named to government positions, ranging from Cabinet and White House posts to advisory roles, such as serving on the economic recovery board charged with helping guide the country out of recession.

Nearly a year after he was elected on a pledge to change business-as-usual in Washington, Obama also has taken a cue from his predecessors and appointed fundraisers to coveted ambassadorships, drawing protests from groups representing career diplomats. A separate analysis by the American Foreign Service Association, the diplomats’ union, found that more than half of the ambassadors named by Obama so far are political appointees, said Susan Johnson, president of the association. An appointment is considered political if it does not go to a career diplomat in the State Department.

That’s a rate higher than any president in more than four decades, the group’s data show, although that could change as the White House fills more openings. Traditionally about 30% of top diplomatic jobs go to political appointees, and roughly 70% to veteran State Department employees. Ambassadors earn $153,200 to $162,900 annually.

Research Credit: Lagavulin


Trading Note: Bought Deep Out of the Money November Puts on Apple (AAPL)

October 30th, 2009

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any instrument.

Just in case a black swan attacks.


Florida Car Dealership: Save Your Cash, Use Your Gold as Down Payment

October 30th, 2009

Via: Bob Dance Automotive:

Bob Dance Gold Rush Program

Take advantage of soaring gold prices!

Use your old or unwanted jewelry and gold as

DOWN PAYMENT!
Save your cash!!
$$$$

Precious metal appraisers on site

Just another way Bob Dance Automotive makes car buying easy


Stimulus Money Going to Contractors That Are “The Most Egregious Offenders of State and Federal Laws”

October 29th, 2009

Via: Washington Post:

President Obama and members of Congress told federal agencies earlier this year to avoid awarding funds under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to contractors with troubled histories of work for the federal government.

But that isn’t happening at numerous agencies, a Washington Post analysis shows. So far, 33 federal departments and agencies have awarded more than $1.2 billion in stimulus contracts to at least 30 companies that are ranked by one watchdog group as among the most egregious offenders of state and federal laws.

Government records show that as a group, these contractors have sold defective products, manufactured safety tests, submitted false travel claims and padded contracts with fraudulent fees.

…

Judith Neal called a hotline and exposed Honeywell for fabricating tests on at least $7 million in ammunition it manufactured and sold in 1987, according to a court finding. She’s watched as similar incidents have continued for two decades.

At the time, both Neal, who worked in the company’s personnel department, and the Justice Department prevailed in court against Honeywell. However, the federal government secured $2 million from the company and $400,000 in ammunition, not even half the value of the faulty ammunition, records show. Such disparities in cost recoveries continue and are common.

“It is not punitive at all,” said Neal, now director of the Tyson Center for Faith and Spirituality in the Workplace at the University of Arkansas. “When you talk about repeat offenders, there are too many profits involved to stop them from doing it again. They just get their hands slapped.”


National Insanity: British Parents Not Allowed in Parks With Children Unless They Complete Police Background Checks

October 29th, 2009

Via: Telegraph:

Only council-vetted “play rangers” are now allowed to monitor youngsters in two adventure areas in Watford while parents must watch from outside a perimeter fence.

The Watford Borough Council policy has been attacked as insulting and a disgrace by furious relatives who say they are being labelled as potential paedophiles.

It will further fuel concerns over a growing nanny state amid the deepening row over the Government’s new national anti-paedophile database.

That will see at least 11 million adults have to be vetted to work with children or vulnerable adults, including parents who give officials lifts to and from social or sports clubs.

Councillors in Watford claim they are only following Government guidelines and cannot allow adults to walk around playgrounds “unchecked”.

But Osfted dismissed the ban while parents branded it “a joke”.

The rules have been imposed at Harwoods and Harebreaks adventure recreation grounds.

Activities on the half acre sites include a skateboard half-pipe, a zip line, rope swings, den building, arts and crafts, plus a wide range of indoor and outdoor sports activities.

Play rangers currently patrol both parks – which are specifically for children aged five to 15 – and are fully qualified and have been cleared by the Criminal Records Bureau.


SAUDIS DROP NYMEX WTI OIL CONTRACT

October 29th, 2009

Via: Financial Times:

Saudi Arabia on Wednesday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The decision by the world’s biggest oil exporter could encourage other producers to abandon the benchmark and threatens the dominance of the world’s most heavily traded oil futures contract. It is the main contract traded on Nymex.

The move reveals the growing discontent of Riyadh and its US refinery customers with WTI after the price of the price of the benchmark became separated from the global oil market this year.

The surge in oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is delivered into America’s pipeline system, depressed the value of the WTI against other global benchmarks, throwing the global oil market into disarray.

In January, WTI, which usually trades at a premium of $1-$2 a barrel to Brent, fell sharply, leaving it at a discount of almost $12 – a record gap. This dislocation in the market continued well into the summer.

From January, Saudi Arabia will base the price of oil for its US customers on a new index developed by Argus, the London-based oil pricing company.

The Argus Sour Crude Index will track the price in the physical market of a basket of US Gulf Coast crudes, including Mars, Poseidon and Southern Green Canyon.

Argus said the change in policy reflected the “increased importance of the US Gulf coast sour crude market, in which both production and trading activity was rising sharply”.

Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London, said Saudi Arabia’s decision was likely to reflect a “wider discontent” from its customers in the US about WTI performance.

ExxonMobil, Marathon and Valero are among the US’s biggest buyers of Saudi crude oil.

Edward Morse, chief economist at LCM Commodities in New York, said: “It is a recognition by large players that WTI sometimes does not reflect the true value of crude oil in the waterborne market.”

Saudi Arabia has priced its oil using WTI since 1994.

The price was based on quotes from the physical market which were compiled by Platt’s, a unit of McGraw-Hill.

Oil companies then covered their exposure to WTI using the futures market on Nymex.

Bob Levin, managing director of market research at the CME Group-owned Nymex, said the exchange was ready to move with the market.

“We plan to introduce a cash-settled futures contract tracking the new Argus index,” he said.

Mike Vinciquerra, equity research analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said the new Argus index would not replace WTI. “It’s more a supplement,” he said.


The Big Picture on the Dollar

October 29th, 2009

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

Some dollar bears are asking for an update on what I think is happening on the dollar. The answer depends on the time horizon that individual market participants are interested in.

I’m going to break it down three ways: short term (days to weeks), medium term (months to a couple of years), and long term (several years).

For dollar bears, the current rally shouldn’t cause too much concern—yet. As you can see, on the daily chart, the well defined downtrending channel is still fully intact.

U.S. Dollar Index, Daily Chart

U.S. Dollar Index, Daily Chart

The medium term picture on the dollar should concern dollar bears with shorter time horizons. Technically, the dollar started an uptrend in early 2008 that remains intact. Additionally, there is a lot of support below the current action on the dollar. I have indicated several of those supports with green lines.

U.S. Dollar Index, Weekly Chart

U.S. Dollar Index, Weekly Chart

Now, let’s turn to the long term picture. The chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index as monthly candles. A chart like this is only useful for looking at multiyear trends and patterns. What do we see here?

U.S. Dollar Index, Monthly Chart

U.S. Dollar Index, Monthly Chart

The monthly U.S. Dollar Index chart clearly shows a bearish Elliott Wave cycle on the dollar that is partially into the 5th and final dominant trend wave. Elliot Wave cycles are described by five dominant trend waves (one through five), followed by three corrective trend waves (A, B, C).

According to [my interpretation] of Elliott Wave theory, the dollar is probably headed to new historic lows over the next few years.


Water Kefir and Other Cultures for Sale in New Zealand

October 29th, 2009

All of the cultures that Becky (my wife) maintains for our family are for sale and may be shipped anywhere in New Zealand.

Please see Water Kefir New Zealand for ordering information.

Available cultures include:

Water kefir

Milk kefir

Caspian Sea yogurt

Kombucha (SCOBY)

Sourdough (Wild New Zealand yeast, started in March 2006 in Northland)


More Mexicans Turn to the Lynch Mob as Crime Spirals Out of Control

October 28th, 2009

Via: Global Post:

The five teenage boys slump against the wall of a dark house and eye the camcorder nervously. Suddenly, a fist enters the frame smacking one of the boys in the face. Then the barrel of an automatic rifle appears and the teenagers’ expressions turn to terror.

“Why are you here?” shouts a voice.

“For robbing,” one of the boys mumbles.

“You see. You were little rats and now look at you,” replies the interrogator.

The torture video of the five alleged house burglars was posted on the internet last week. It is the latest sign of brutal vigilante justice spreading across Mexico.

As kidnappings, muggings and car jackings spiral out of control, and the authorities appear increasingly impotent, shadowy groups have been advocating justice by the sword.

In other recent cases, alleged kidnappers and car thieves have been abducted and murdered and had their corpses dumped in public places along with threatening notes.

There are also rising cases of mobs lynching alleged thieves and leaving them beaten, naked and tied up.

“The government is failing to provide security and people are turning to some brutal alternatives,” said Rossana Reguillo, who studies crime and violence at the Jesuit University of Guadalajara. “This is not something that has always been around in Mexico. It is a new phenomenon that has been growing since 2000.”

In the latest case, the five teenagers were abducted after they allegedly robbed a house in the town of Tepic in the Pacific state of Nayarit.

The boys — all students of a local high school — were taken to an abandoned building where they had their heads shaved and then were beaten by fists and rifle butts and threatened at gun point, as shown on the video. One of the torturers is heard on the film saying he is the man whose house was robbed.

The teenagers were also forced to perform sexual acts — including kissing each other in front of the camera — as a humiliation. The gunmen are heard threatening to cut their hands off unless they comply.

After being held all night the students were dumped naked on the street and then attended at hospital for injuries including broken ribs.

The torture film was posted on YouTube under the title “Little Rats of Tepic.” YouTube’s monitors quickly removed it from the site, flagging it as unsuitable content.

Following an outcry over the film, police on Monday arrested four building workers for the torture.

However, one of the boys said they had first been arrested by state police and it was the officers themselves who turned them to the vigilantes. The Nayarit police chief denies the charge, saying officers did not question the boys until after they had been tortured.


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