Green Shoots: Numbers on Welfare See Sharp Increase
June 22nd, 2009Via: Wall Street Journal:
Welfare rolls, which were slow to rise and actually fell in many states early in the recession, now are climbing across the country for the first time since President Bill Clinton signed legislation pledging “to end welfare as we know it” more than a decade ago.
Twenty-three of the 30 largest states, which account for more than 88% of the nation’s total population, see welfare caseloads above year-ago levels, according to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal and the National Conference of State Legislatures. As more people run out of unemployment compensation, many are turning to welfare as a stopgap.
The biggest increases are in states with some of the worst jobless rates. Oregon’s count was up 27% in May from a year earlier; South Carolina’s climbed 23% and California’s 10% between March 2009 and March 2008. A few big states that had seen declining welfare caseloads just a few months ago now are seeing increases: New York is up 1.2%, Illinois 3% and Wisconsin 3.9%. Welfare rolls in a few big states, Michigan and New Jersey among them, still are declining.
Japan Considering Taxing Cash; “Nominal Rates of -4% Might be Closer to What is Required to Rescue the Economy from Another Deflationary Spiral”
June 21st, 2009Japanese people will just buy more gold and park their speculative yen back in the carry trade pachinko parlor (this may already be happening). Why wouldn’t they? If holding cash means a guaranteed loss of 4% a year, that’s a pretty good incentive to gamble.
Bonus points to the state for the totalitarian surveillance grid side benefit of this.
Via: Times Online:
With recovery elusive, a population doddering into old age and perhaps a decade of deflation in prospect, Japan may start mulling the most radical monetary policy of all — the abolition of cash.
Unorthodox, untried and, said one Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi strategist, “in the realms of economic science fiction”, the recommendation has nevertheless begun floating around Tokyo’s corridors of power and economists have described Japan as particularly suitable as a testing ground.
The search for more outré economic policies continues, despite the recent surge in the Nikkei 225 index.The market may be reflecting soaring Chinese investment, rising consumer confidence and other cheerful data but economists see few long-term beacons of hope for Japan.
Other extreme ideas mooted by the financial authorities include a tax on physical currency or introducing one to operate alongside the yen.
All three ideas are based on a theory concerning interest rates and the concept that a nominal rate of zero — as Japan has now lived with for much of the past decade — may be too high. In Japan’s case, the theory would suggest that nominal rates of -4 per cent might be closer to what is required to rescue the economy from another deflationary spiral. Having agreed that this might be necessary, the next question is how it could be imposed.
Several MPs in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party believe the abolition of cash, though politically radioactive, might be technically feasible. Richard Jerram, a senior economist with Macquarie bank, told investors that “the proposal has become practical with the broad penetration of electronic money and credit cards in Japan”.
He said that all the proposals were radical but worth consideration for Japan. Without physical cash, a central bank can set rates exactly where it likes, runs the argument. Mr Jerram said: “At the heart of the problem of achieving negative nominal interest rates is the idea that physical currency is an anonymous bearer bond with a nominal interest rate of zero.” While a central bank can impose positive or negative rates on non-physical assets, transmitting those rates to physical currency is a huge challenge. By permanently removing cash from a system, he added, policymakers are robbed of the excuse that zero is the lowest that nominal rates can go as a deflation-fighting tool.
In theory, many Japanese could easily make the leap into a cashless world. The country has six main competing cashless payment systems, many of them embedded into mobile phones. Including Oyster-type cards issued by public transport companies, industry sources estimate that there are about 120 million cashless payment chips sitting in Japan’s wallets and handbags, waiting to be swiped.
Nevertheless, the country remains a wholeheartedly cash-based consumer society. Currency in circulation is about 16 per cent of its GDP, compared with the levels of 2 to 3 per cent in most developed countries. Reducing that 16 per cent to zero would be a wrench but would come with considerable benefits, Mr Jerram said.
But just as Japan’s cultural attachment to cash may prove hard to dislodge, some economists believe that the same may be true of deflation. The country’s growing population of elderly people mainly hold cash or cash equivalents and, compared with its US and European counterparts, the Bank of Japan has come under virtually no political pressure to be more belligerent in its war on deflation. It is unlikely, added Mr Jerram, to brook anything as radical as abolishing cash.
Goldman Sachs to Make Record Bonus Payout
June 21st, 2009Mission accomplished!
Via: Guardian:
Staff at Goldman Sachs staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm’s 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year, sparking concern that the big investment banks which survived the credit crunch will derail financial regulation reforms.
A lack of competition and a surge in revenues from trading foreign currency, bonds and fixed-income products has sent profits at Goldman Sachs soaring, according to insiders at the firm.
Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company’s prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever. Figures next month detailing the firm’s second-quarter earnings are expected to show a further jump in profits. Warren Buffett, who bought $5bn of the company’s shares in January, has already made a $1bn gain on his investment.
Goldman is expected to be the biggest winner in the race for revenues that, in 2006, reached £186bn across the entire industry. While this figure is expected to fall to £160bn in 2009, it will be split among a smaller number of firms.
Research Credit: ltcolonelnemo, Love Yourself
At Least 19 Dead in Iranian Protests
June 21st, 2009Via: CTV:
Iranian state television has raised the death toll from anti-government demonstrations to at least 19 and reported Sunday that the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, along with four other family members, has been arrested for participating in the protests.
According to the report, authorities made the arrests late Saturday. The names of the other arrested family members were not given.
Prior to news of the arrests, state television had broadcast pictures of Faezeh Hashemi, who is Rafsanjani’s eldest daughter, speaking to supporters of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Rafsanjani and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was declared the victor in the June 8 national elections by a landslide despite predictions of a close race, have traded insults in recent weeks.
Rafsanjani intensely dislikes Ahmadinejad, who accused the former president and his family of corruption.
State media broke news of the arrests not long after it updated the death toll from the violent demonstrations that have rocked much of Tehran to at least 19.
State media reported that 10 people died in Saturday’s fighting between protesters and pro-government Basij militia. However, the English-language Press TV, which is only broadcast outside of Iran, reported Saturday’s death toll as 13.
Protesters, supporters of Mousavi who allege the elections were rigged in favour of Ahmadinejad, have taken to the streets every evening since the election, clashing with militia members and riot police.
State media also said that 100 people were injured on Saturday. The deputy chief of police, who was quoted in the story, said officers did not use live ammunition against the crowds who, according to the report, set fire to gas stations and attacked a military post.
The casualty figures cannot be independently verified due to a government crackdown on media. Most foreign journalists were ordered to leave the country after the election, and Iranian reporters have been confined to reporting by phone or the Internet.
Anyone Willing to Translate a News Story from Japanese Into English?
June 21st, 2009UPDATE: TRANSLATIONS ARE IN
—End Update—
I know that there are at least two Cryptogon readers who are capable of doing this, but I’m not cheeky enough to ask them directly on a Sunday evening. So, guys, if you’re up for it, please let us know what this says. Totally at your convenience. No pressure. Feel free to ignore, etc…
I tried machine translations and they came out like glossolalia. HA.
MPs Claim Rates as Living Expenses Then Don’t Pay Councils
June 20th, 2009Via: Telegraph:
Dozens of MPs have made “phantom” claims for council tax on their parliamentary expenses – receiving thousands of pounds more than they actually paid their local authorities, Telegraph.co.uk can disclose.
Senior MPs and ministers, including Beverley Hughes, David Blunkett and Mark Tami, are accused of over-claiming for council tax on their designated second home over the past four years.
Eric Illsley, the Labour MP, is thought to have made the highest phantom claim – recouping more than £6,000 over and above his council tax bills since 2004. David Willetts and Jeremy Hunt, both shadow ministers, admitted last night that they had over-claimed on their council tax by at least £500 each.
In total, more than 50 MPs are thought to have profited from the dubious claims.
Eighteen have already privately repaid over-claimed council tax to the Commons fees office, including the Labour MPs Linda Gilroy and Michael Meacher.
Some MPs claim round figures – usually £150 or £200 a month – for council tax; others make 12 monthly claims even though their annual bills are divided into 10 instalments.
Until last year, Parliament only required receipts for expenses of more than £250 per month so many MPs did not bother submitting council tax bills before making claims.
When the rules were changed to require documentation, several MPs reduced their claims and were not questioned over previous council tax payments they had received.
California Faces Prospect of “Multi-Notch” Credit Rating Downgrade
June 20th, 2009Via: Reuters:
California, which is struggling to close a $24.3 billion budget gap, faces the prospect of a “multi-notch” downgrade in its credit rating if the state’s legislature fails to act quickly to produce a budget, Moody’s Investors Service warned on Friday.
Moody’s decision to place California’s general obligation debt on alert for a possible “multi-notch” downgrade stunned state officials.
The state’s current A2 credit rating is Moody’s sixth-highest investment grade and makes California the lowest rated of the 50 states.
The A2 rating is just five notches above speculative status and Moody’s raised the potential for the rating to tumble toward “junk” status if lawmakers fail to quickly produce a budget for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to sign.
“If the legislature does not take action quickly, the state’s cash situation will deteriorate to the point where the controller will have to delay most non-priority payments in July,” Moody’s said in a statement.
“Lack of action could result in a multi-notch downgrade,” Moody’s added.
“I cannot remember reading a ratings note that raised the specter of a multi-notch downgrade,” said H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger on state finance matters. “It’s another clear warning from the financial markets that there will be substantial and costly consequences if the legislature does not send the governor a budget that he can sign.”
A downgrade could push California’s borrowing costs up at time when state officials expect to issue up to $9 billion in revenue anticipation notes as soon as possible after a budget agreement is notched — a deal whose timing is in doubt.
Moody’s said California’s leasing debt and other state-related debt are also on review, affecting a total of $72 billion of debt.
FDIC Friday: Banks in Georgia, North Carolina, Kansas Closed by Regulators
June 20th, 2009Via: Bloomberg:
Banks in Georgia, North Carolina and Kansas with total assets of $1.5 billion were closed yesterday, bringing this year’s tally of failures in the U.S. to 40 amid the highest unemployment in a quarter century.
State regulators shut Southern Community bank of Fayetteville, Georgia and Cooperative Bank in Wilmington, North Carolina. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency closed First National Bank of Anthony, Kansas. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named as receiver for all three, according to statements from the FDIC.
Southern Community’s $307 million in deposits were bought by United Community Bank of Blairsville, Georgia, and most of Cooperative’s $774 million in deposits went to First Bank in Troy, North Carolina, the FDIC said. Bank of Kansas in South Hutchinson acquired First Bank’s $142.5 million in deposits. The acquiring banks are taking over a combined $1.47 billion in assets, mostly loans, from the failed institutions, and signed agreements with the FDIC to share more than 80 percent of the losses with the government.
“The loss-sharing arrangement is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector,” the FDIC said in each statement. “The agreement also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers.”
Regulators this year have closed the most banks since 1993, as the loss of jobs contributes to mounting home foreclosures and loan delinquencies. The U.S. economy contracted at a 5.7 percent annual pace in the first quarter. More than a quarter of all states have unemployment rates higher than 10 percent, the Labor Department said yesterday.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is Interested in Operation Blackjack
June 19th, 2009A U.S. Department of Homeland Security user (host: bcp3.cbp.dhs.gov, ip: 63.167.255.153) conducted the following Google search: operation blackjack.
The DHS user visited Operation Blackjack: The Story of Terrorist Nuclear Attacks on Major Western Cities. Twice.
I’ve avoided following the Blackjack/Jackblack developments too closely on here because I’m pretty sure that the point is to study the people who are paying attention to it. And yes, I’m up to speed on all the latest nonsense. There’s no need to send me any more story suggestions or emails about it, UNLESS you know who is behind it.
Next week, we have record U.S. Treasury debt offerings that might not go so well. There’s also Ardent Sentry 2009 underway now, and running into next week. And… Wait for it: The Summer/Winter solstice.
The fact that these events play out at the same time as the Blackjack/Jackblack game/viral marketing/social experiment is probably just a coincidence. In fact, I wasn’t planning on mentioning this at all because whoever is behind the Blackjack/Jackblack thing is probably getting off on watching all the activity on the message boards.
But then Boeing took a look.
And now DHS is sniffing around.
Personally, I don’t think it’s viral marketing. I can’t imagine that there are more than a couple of thousand people on the planet even paying attention to this ridiculous stunt. I also seriously doubt that it has anything to do with any sort of pre-attack planning. I mean, come on you guys, snap out of it… My best guess is that it’s a sociology project and that the topics involved with it finally attracted the attention of DHS and others.
Who’s behind it? I have no idea, but I bet DHS is going to find out.
Twitter Feed
June 19th, 2009I can’t imagine why people are asking me for this, but here you go: http://twitter.com/cryptogon.


