Poverty Spreading in Suburbs
November 29th, 2008Via: Reuters:
Poverty in the United States is spreading from rural and inner-city areas to the suburbs, according to a study, a situation that can worsen as the economy confronts what may be a protracted recession.
The study by the Federal Reserve’s Community Affairs department and the Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program found that poverty levels in the world’s richest nation were on the rise.
“It shows that concentrated poverty is still very much with us, and that it can be found among a much more diverse set of communities and families than previous research has emphasized,” said Bruce Katz, a director Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program.
“Poverty is spreading and may be re-clustering in suburbs, where a majority of America’s metropolitan poor now live.”
The study was released ahead of next week’s conference on concentrated poverty at the Fed. It shied away from explaining the causes of poverty, but past research have linked the phenomenon to loss of jobs in manufacturing, agriculture and mining.
Goose Park Blog
November 29th, 2008Our next door neighbor, Jacqui, is an extremely talented flax weaver. She has put up a site that describes her flax weaving in great detail. She has also made some of her individual pieces available for sale. The site is called Goose Park Blog.
She rang me up the other day and said, “I’ve put up this site, but nobody’s coming to visit. Do you know what I can do to get people to visit my site?”
I said that I had an idea about how to get a few people to have a look. *grin*
Jacqui and her partner B (I don’t know if he wants me to mention his name) are living totally off the power grid. They have solar panels and a Pelton wheel microhydro system. It’s a BEAUTIFUL place. Jacqui also loves her geese, so don’t forget to read all about them if you’re curious.
Jacqui has offered to pay Becky and me a commission in honey (she’s a bee keeper too) if any of you decide to buy some of her kits. I like the idea of an affiliate relationship that compensates the referrer in honey. HA
I know that many Kiwis are familiar with flax weaving, but I had never seen it and was taken aback by it when I saw it for the first time. Jacqui makes each piece by hand from wild flax that she harvests on her land. Anyone who has created anything with natural materials will find this fascinating.
At a minimum, I thought that you guys might be curious to read about what’s going on next door to the Farmlet / Cryptogon operations center.
Two Deaths Result from WalMart Stampede
November 28th, 2008Maybe I need a Zombie Uprising category.
Via: Daily News:
A worker died after being trampled and a woman miscarried when hundreds of shoppers smashed through the doors of a Long Island Wal-Mart Friday morning, witnesses said.
The unidentified worker, employed as an overnight stock clerk, tried to hold back the unruly crowds just after the Valley Stream store opened at 5 a.m.
Witnesses said the surging throngs of shoppers knocked the man down. He fell and was stepped on. As he gasped for air, shoppers ran over and around him.
“He was bum-rushed by 200 people,” said Jimmy Overby, 43, a co-worker. “They took the doors off the hinges. He was trampled and killed in front of me. They took me down too…I literally had to fight people off my back.”
Nassau County Police are still investigating and would not confirm the witness accounts. The Medical Examiner will determine the cause of death. Police did say there were several injuries but weren’t more specific.
Jessica Keyes was among the shoppers. She told the Daily News she saw a woman knocked down just a few feet from the dying worker.
“When the paramedics came, she said ‘I’m pregnant,'” Keyes said.
Paramedics treated the woman inside the store and then, according to Keys, told the woman:
“There’s nothing we can do. The baby is gone.”
UK: Taxpayer Now Owns Nearly 60% of Royal Bank of Scotland
November 28th, 2008Via: Guardian:
Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s second biggest bank until the credit crunch struck last year, confirmed today that is now majority-owned by the taxpayer after a £20bn bail-out by the government.
The Edinburgh-based bank announced this morning that its existing investors had shunned its £15bn cash call, leaving almost all the new shares in the hands of the government. The taxpayer now owns 57.9% of the business. Only a handful of investors took up the offer to subscribe to new shares at 65.5p because the bank’s share price had been trading below that level, giving them no incentive to support the cash call.
How an Italian Judge Made the Internet Illegal
November 28th, 2008Via: Register:
Italian bloggers are up in arms at a court ruling early this year that suggests almost all Italian blogs are illegal. This month, a senior Italian politician went one step further, warning that most web activity is likely to be against the law.
The story begins back in May, when a judge in Modica (in Sicily) found local historian and author Carlo Ruta guilty of the crime of “stampa clandestina” – or publishing a “clandestine” newspaper – in respect of his blog. The judge ruled that since the blog had a headline, that made it an online newspaper, and brought it within the law’s remit.
The penalties for this crime are not onerous: A fine of 250 Euros or a prison sentence of up to two years. Carlo Ruta was fined and ordered to take down his site, which has now been replaced by a blank page, headed “Site under construction”, and a link directing surfers to his new site. Hardly serious stuff – except that he now has a criminal record, and his original site has disappeared.
The offence has its origins in 1948, when in apparent contradiction of Article 21 of the Italian Constitution guaranteeing the right to free expression, a law was passed requiring publishers to register officially before setting up a new publication. The intention, in the immediate aftermath of Fascism, may have been to regulate partisan and extremist publications. The effect was to introduce into Italian society a highly centrist and bureaucratic approach to freedom of the Press.
A further twist to this tale took place in 2001, with the realisation that existing laws were inadequate to deal with the internet. Instead of liberalising, the Italian Government sought to bring the internet into the same framework as traditional print media. Law 62, passed in March 2001, introduces the concept of “stampa clandestina” to the internet.
The suspicion expressed by a number of commentators is that this extension of the law suited government and publishers alike. The state was able to maintain its benevolent stranglehold on the media, whilst publishers could use the system of authorisation and regulation as a means to extend state subsidies to their ventures on the internet.
What few noticed at the time was that this law had the capacity to place blogs on a par with full-blown journalism. It would only take a judge to decide that something as simple as a headline was what defined a “newspaper”.
Meltdown Far From Over, New Mortgage Crisis Looms
November 28th, 2008Via: AP:
Black Friday’s retail shoppers hunting for holiday bargains won’t be enough to stave off what’s likely to become the next economic crisis. Malls from Michigan to Georgia are entering foreclosure, commercial victims of the same events poisoning the housing market.
Hotels in Tucson, Ariz., and Hilton Head, S.C., also are about to default on their mortgages.
That pace is expected to quicken. The number of late payments and defaults will double, if not triple, by the end of next year, according to analysts from Fitch Ratings Ltd., which evaluates companies’ credit.
“We’re probably in the first inning of the commercial mortgage problem,” said Scott Tross, a real estate lawyer with Herrick Feinstein in New Jersey.
That’s bad news for more than just property owners. When businesses go dark, employees lose jobs. Towns lose tax revenue. School budgets and social services feel the pinch.
Companies have survived plenty of downturns, but economists see this one playing out like never before. In the past, when businesses hit rough patches, owners negotiated with banks or refinanced their loans.
But many banks no longer hold the loans they made. Over the past decade, banks have increasingly bundled mortgages and sold them to investors. Pension funds, insurance companies, and hedge funds bought the seemingly safe securities and are now bracing for losses that could ripple through the financial system.
“It’s a toxic drug and nobody knows how bad it’s going to be,” said Paul Miller, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, who was among the first to sound alarm bells in the residential market.
Unlike home mortgages, businesses don’t pay their loans over 30 years. Commercial mortgages are usually written for five, seven or 10 years with big payments due at the end. About $20 billion will be due next year, covering everything from office and condo complexes to hotels and malls.
The retail outlook is particularly bad. Circuit City and Linens ‘n Things have sought bankruptcy protection. Home Depot, Sears, Ann Taylor and Foot Locker are closing stores.
Those retailers typically were paying rent that was expected to cover mortgage payments. When those $20 billion in mortgages come due next year — 2010 and 2011 totals are projected to be even higher — many property owners won’t have the money.
Some will survive, but those property owners whose loans required little money up front will have less incentive to weather the storm.
Refinancing formerly was an option, but many properties are worth less than when they were purchased. And since investors no longer want to buy commercial mortgages, banks are reluctant to write new loans to refinance those facing foreclosure.
California, New York, Texas and Florida — states with a high concentration of mortgages in the securities market, according to Fitch — are particularly vulnerable. Texas and Florida are already seeing increased delinquencies and defaults, as are Michigan, Tennessee and Georgia.
The worst-case scenario goes something like this: With banks unwilling to refinance, a shopping center goes into foreclosure. Nobody can buy the mall because banks won’t write mortgages as long as investors won’t purchase them.
“Credit markets have seized up,” corporate securities lawyer Michael Gambro said. “People are not willing to take risks. They’re not buying anything.”
That drives down investments already on the books. Insurance companies are seeing their stock prices fall on fears they are too invested in commercial mortgages.
“The system has never been tested for a deep recession,” said Ken Rosen, a real estate hedge fund manager and University of California at Berkeley professor of real estate economics.
One hope was that the U.S. would use some of the $700 billion financial bailout to buy shaky investments from banks and insurance companies. That was the original plan. But Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has issued a stunning turnabout, saying the U.S. no longer planned to buy troubled securities. For those watching the wave of commercial defaults about to crest, the announcement was poorly received.
“He’s created havoc in the marketplace by changing the rules,” Rosen said. “It was the stupidest statement on Earth.”
The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering another option that might ease the crisis, one that would change accounting rules so banks don’t have to declare huge losses whenever the market declines.
But the only surefire remedy is for the economy to stabilize, for businesses to start expanding and for investors to trust the market again. Until then, Tross said, “There’s going to be a lot of pain going forward.”
The Citigroup Gold-At-$2000 Story
November 28th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
DISCLOSURE: I am a BullionVault client and affiliate. I am a Nitro-Pak affiliate. I am an Impact Guns affiliate. I hold DBA.
Oh my, the Citigroup Gold-At-$2000 Story is making the rounds.
If Citigroup analysts knew their collective ass from a hole in the ground, maybe the bank wouldn’t have been nationalized as a result of its bad decisions and catastrophic losses. However, since a broken clock is right twice a day and since gold is substantially lower than earlier highs this year—apparently consolidating in the low 800s—this article is worth mentioning as just another data point for your consideration.
If you read this and think, “This is a sure bet! I’ll go mortgage the house and buy gold,” you are almost certainly going to lose your ass and wind up reading Cryptogon wearing a barrel or a set of sandwich boards.
Diversify. Diversify. Diversify.
So, besides land with decent soil and a reliable water supply, gold and cash, what else looks good? Here are some things to consider, in order:
3. DBA. People have to eat. My stop is $23 on this.
4. Oil. I don’t trade oil. However, the recent Goldman Sachs note, indicating that there wasn’t much upside potential for oil, pretty much describes the near term technical bottom:
Goldman Sachs to end oil recommendations; doesn’t expect ‘significant upside potential’
November 20, 2008: 06:10 PM ESTNEW YORK (Associated Press) – Goldman Sachs, which earlier this year said it expected oil to reach $200 a barrel, said it is discontinuing its crude-oil trading recommendations as it does not see “significant upside potential” to oil.
Goldman said Wednesday in its weekly energy report said that while continued weak demand and constrained credit would keep prices under pressure, it hoped that high volatility would provide a better exit point for trading.
“The volatility in the past few weeks has mostly been to the downside and the pressure on the oil complex has increased,” the report said. “In the near term, we do not expect significant upside potential and as a consequence we are closing all of our trading recommendations.”
Oil has fallen 66 percent since hitting $147 a barrel in July. It fell $4 Thursday to settle at $49.62 a barrel.
The same crooks, you might remember, were trying to shill it higher near the top. So, with Goldman Sachs publicly talking down oil, and some Peak Oil bloggers taking the consolation prize of economic collapse, oil is looking interesting here, mostly because of the double-bottom-esque chart pattern.
Options 3 and 4 assume that the dollar will go on to break down again. If you don’t understand the connection between the dollar and commodities by now, DO NOT even consider these options.
I don’t see how you can go wrong with options 1 and 2. You see stories daily about the food situation and Obama Clause is a rabid gun banner. With regard to the guns, what happens to prices on things that are banned? Hint: They don’t go down. The reasons for recommending that Sig piece are somewhat arcane, and will bore most readers. But, if you’re looking to make an investment in an outstanding assault rifle, very briefly, here’s why I recommended the Sig556: 1) Kalashnikov-type gas system, 2) Legendary Sig fit and finish, 3) It’s a relatively rare weapon, unlike the AR and AK variants which are made by dozens of manufacturers. The Sig556 is a very solid investment. There are always going to be lots of ARs and AKs around. But how many people do you know who own Belgian FN FALs, German HK91s, Israeli Galils, or Finnish Valmet M62s? Someday, the Sig556 will be one of those weapons that’s gone forever. That’s where the investment potential comes in.
A short anecdote:
When I was 16, I walked into a gun store with my dad. I had a wallet full of cash. I was there to buy a Colt AR-15 HBAR.
“Son, that’s a fine weapon,” said the man behind the counter. “But why not get yourself something that will appreciate in value?”
“Oh, I want that AR,” I said.
“What did you have in mind?” my dad asked the man.
And off the rack it came.
“There’s one more new in the box in the back and this one. That’s it. There won’t be any more. Ever.”
He laid out several leather mats on the glass gun case. He cocked back the bolt and it locked open on the empty magazine with a distinctive metal on metal snap. He removed the mag and laid the weapon on the leather mats. The sound of that action going back drew a small crowd of other customers. They murmured things like:
“What is it?”
“That’s not American.”
“Damn, that’s expensive.”
“That’s serious f*ckin’ business right there.”
(Don’t ask what it was. It doesn’t matter.)
I wound up taking the man’s advice and (technically, my dad) bought the weapon that he suggested, even though it cost three hundred dollars more than I had tucked away in my already bulging wallet. My dad let me borrow the rest.
Needless to say, the man behind the counter was right. It was a much better choice than that AR. (Don’t get me wrong, I like ARs.)
I didn’t buy a Sig556 all those years ago (Sig assault rifles were not available for purchase by civilians back then), but I’m telling you the story because that Sig556 is the equivalent option now.
Don’t dawdle.
Via: Telegraph:
Gold is poised for a dramatic surge and could blast through $2,000 an ounce by the end of next year as central banks flood the world’s monetary system with liquidity, according to an internal client note from the US bank Citigroup.
The bank said the damage caused by the financial excesses of the last quarter century was forcing the world’s authorities to take steps that had never been tried before.
This gamble was likely to end in one of two extreme ways: with either a resurgence of inflation; or a downward spiral into depression, civil disorder, and possibly wars. Both outcomes will cause a rush for gold.
“They are throwing the kitchen sink at this,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, the bank’s chief technical strategist.
“The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done. When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed though into an inflation shock.
“Or it will not work because too much damage has already been done, and we will see continued financial deterioration, causing further economic deterioration, with the risk of a feedback loop. We don’t think this is the more likely outcome, but as each week and month passes, there is a growing danger of vicious circle as confidence erodes,” he said.
“This will lead to political instability. We are already seeing countries on the periphery of Europe under severe stress. Some leaders are now at record levels of unpopularity. There is a risk of domestic unrest, starting with strikes because people are feeling disenfranchised.”
“What happens if there is a meltdown in a country like Pakistan, which is a nuclear power. People react when they have their backs to the wall. We’re already seeing doubts emerge about the sovereign debts of developed AAA-rated countries, which is not something you can ignore,” he said.
Gold traders are playing close attention to reports from Beijing that the China is thinking of boosting its gold reserves from 600 tonnes to nearer 4,000 tonnes to diversify away from paper currencies. “If true, this is a very material change,” he said.
Mr Fitzpatrick said Britain had made a mistake selling off half its gold at the bottom of the market between 1999 to 2002. “People have started to question the value of government debt,” he said.
Citigroup said the blast-off was likely to occur within two years, and possibly as soon as 2009. Gold was trading yesterday at $812 an ounce. It is well off its all-time peak of $1,030 in February but has held up much better than other commodities over the last few months – reverting to is historical role as a safe-haven store of value and a de facto currency.
Gold has tripled in value over the last seven years, vastly outperforming Wall Street and European bourses.
An Open Letter to President-Elect Barack Obama
November 28th, 2008Via: WAPF:
AN OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA
From Sally Fallon Morell, President, the Weston A. Price Foundation
November 16, 2008
Dear Mr. Obama,
Congratulations on your recent victory in the American presidential elections. As the president-elect, you have many issues to consider as you prepare to take office. One issue I would urge you to focus on concerns a grave injustice taking place in the prisons of your home state, namely, a prison diet that is slowly killing the inmates assigned to the Illinois Department of Corrections. This is a diet based largely on soy protein powder and soy flour. As you stated on last night’s 60 Minutes Program, America does not condone torture. I think you would agree that what is happening in the Illinois prisons is a form of torture. Soy protein and soy flour are toxic, especially in large amounts. The US Food and Drug Administration lists 288 studies on its database showing the toxicity of soy. Numerous studies show that soy consumption leads to nutrient deficiencies, digestive disorders, endocrine disruption and thyroid problems.
Even the most ardent supporters of soy, such as Dr. Mark Messina, warn against consuming more than about 20 grams of soy protein per day. But the inmates in Illinois are getting upwards of 100 grams per day—beef and chicken by-product mixtures containing 60-70 percent soy, fake soy meats and cheese, even soy added to baked goods. The soy products are produced by Archer Daniel Midlands, which contributed heavily to the campaign of Rod Blagojevich. The change from a diet based largely on beef to one based on soy happened in 2003, when Mr. Blagojevich began his first term as governor.
The national office of the Weston A. Price Foundation has heard from dozens of inmates begging for help. Almost all suffer from serious digestive disorders, such as diarrhea or painful constipation, vomiting, irritable bowel syndrome and sharp pains in the digestive tract. One reason for these problems is the high oxalic acid content of soy—no food is higher in oxalic acid than soy protein isolate, which can contain up to 630 milligrams per serving, at least six times higher than the amount found in typical diets.
Oxalic acid is associated with kidney stones, but the sharp crystal deposits can form in almost every tissue in the body–in the heart where they can stop electrical signals; in the bones where they can displace bone marrow cells, leading to anemia or immune deficiency; in the brain where they can impair the transmission of signals; and in the skin where they can cause fibromyalgia.
Other problems reported by the inmates include acne, hair loss, depression, lethargy, allergies, heart arrhythmias, passing out after soy consumption, frequent infections and constant feeling of cold. Many of these are symptoms of low thyroid function. The estrogen-like compounds in soy are known to depress thyroid function.
When the prisoners seek medical treatment, they are told that soy does not cause the problems they are experiencing. Even those who vomit or pass out immediately after eating soy cannot get an order for a soy-free diet. They are told: “If the soy disagrees with you, don’t eat it. Buy food from the commissary.” And since most of the inmates cannot afford to purchase food from the commissary, they are faced with a choice of serious health problems or starvation. Several have had sections of their colons removed when a simple return to a nutritious, soy-free diet would have solved the problem. One inmate who passes out whenever he consumes soy was given a pacemaker.
Several inmates have filed lawsuits. One inmate has been subjected to illegal and life-threatening retaliatory actions as a result of his filing two lawsuits claiming inadequate medical care. Pro bono legal help is urgently needed for these cases. According to law, prisoners are entitled to “nutritionally adequate food” (Ramos v Lamm, 639.2d 559, 1980). According to Illinois law, “Infliction of unnecessary suffering on prisoner by failure to treat his medical needs is inconsistent with contemporary standards of decency and violates the Eighth Amendment” (Key Note 7. Criminal Law 1213).
The justification for the switch from beef to soy is to save money. But according to one court case, “A lack of financing is not a defense to a failure to satisfy minimum constitutional standards in prisons” (Duran v. Anaya, 642, Supp. 510 (DNM 1986), page 525, paragraph 6). And it is not clear that the soy diet is saving the state of Illinois any money, not when you consider the greatly increased medical costs that have ensued, and the risk to the state of costly lawsuits. The state of Virginia provides grass-fed beef to inmates at no cost to the state. Lowrisk prisoners raise the beef at Sky Meadows State Park. The surplus is sold to the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections, resulting in a net gain for the prison budget. All over the country prisons are instituting creative ways to save money while teaching inmates new skills, including gardening, animal husbandry, beekeeping, food processing, composting and recycling. Only the state of Illinois has chosen to poison its prisoners instead.
It is said that a nation is judged on the way it treats its prisoners. The American prison system is predicated on the premise that criminals can be rehabilitated. To feed prisoners a diet that can permanently ruin their health robs them of any opportunity for rehabilitation, renders them unfit for normal life when they are released, and will impose an unnecessary burden on the state’s medical services. It constitutes a medical experiment and amounts cruel and unusual punishment, which must be stopped.
Mr. Obama, you can stop this cruel soy-feeding experiment with one phone call. I urge you to be that champion of fairness and justice that you promised during your campaign by making that call.
Sincerely yours,
Sally Fallon Morell, President
The Weston A. Price Foundation
The Weston A. Price Foundation is a non-profit nutrition education foundation dedicated to restoring nutrient-dense foods to the human diet through education, research and activism. The Foundation is spearheading a national campaign to warn consumers about the dangers of modern soy foods. Please visit their website www.westonaprice.org to learn more about the Foundation’s Soy Alert! campaign.
Thai Protesters Brace for Police Assault
November 28th, 2008Via: Reuters:
Protesters laying siege to Bangkok’s two airports braced for a battle with security forces on Friday after Thailand’s prime minister declared a state of emergency to end a blockade threatening to cripple the economy.
People’s Alliance of Democracy (PAD) “security guards,” armed with sticks and metal bars, manned a series of makeshift fortified roadblocks on the expressway leading to the capital’s $4 billion Suvarnabhumi airport, shut since Tuesday.
There were similar scenes at the city’s Don Muang airport, whose closure late on Wednesday severed all air links between the city of 8 million and the outside world.
In a televised address from the government stronghold of Chiang Mai, 700 km (400 miles) north of Bangkok, Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat declared emergency law, saying the export and tourism-driven economy could not tolerate further disruption.
“I need to do something to restore peace and order,” he said.
A similar declaration in September to dislodge protesters occupying Government House was ignored by the army and, even though the PAD were preparing to repel a police assault, it was not clear when, or even if, one would materialize.
The sit-ins have forced hundreds of flights to be canceled, stranding thousands of foreign tourists in one of Asia’s biggest air hubs and grounding millions of dollars of air cargo.
“We will not leave. We will use human shields against the police if they try to disperse us,” PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila told Reuters.
Another PAD figurehead threatened to expand the movement’s six-month campaign by bringing Bangkok’s road traffic network to a halt with flying protests at dozens of motorway intersections.
A government spokesman said the economy could lose at least 100 billion baht ($2.8 billion) if the sieges drag on for a month and reduce GDP growth for the year to 4 percent from a current estimate of 4.5 percent, already a seven-year low.
The Bangkok Post said on Friday that the strife would lead to tens of thousands of job losses in the tourism industry while The Nation, citing a University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce survey, forecast losses of between 70 billion baht and 130 billion baht ($2 billion – $4 billion) in the sector.
FINAL BATTLE
Thailand’s three-year-old political crisis has deepened dramatically since the PAD began a “final battle” on Monday to unseat a government it accuses of being a pawn of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a 2006 coup. Somchai is Thaksin’s brother-in-law.
Pressure has built on the army to step in since Somchai rejected military calls to quit, but pro-government forces are threatening to take up arms if the elected administration is ousted, raising fears of major civil unrest.
Army chief Anupong has repeatedly said he would not take over, arguing the military is powerless to heal the fundamental political rifts between the Bangkok elite and middle classes who despise Thaksin, and the poor rural and urban majority who love him.
After Citi, is Bank of America Next?
November 28th, 2008Via: Reuters:
A government rescue plan has eased investors’ concerns about Citigroup Inc, but mines lurking in the balance sheets of rivals including Bank of America Corp could still tempt short-sellers.
Bank of America, the No. 3 U.S. bank by assets, has loaded up on mortgages as the world’s largest economy wrestles with the worst housing market since the Great Depression.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank further heightened its exposure to home loans by acquiring Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest U.S. independent mortgage lender and agreeing to buy Merrill Lynch & Co, which owns the world’s largest retail brokerage.
If losses on mortgages and other debt securities mount significantly, the bank may see the ratio of equity to risk-weighted assets, known as Tier-1 capital, dwindle to alarmingly low levels.
“I would expect there are more banks who are in dire straits and more who can expect to be helped,” said Michael Farr, president of investment management company Farr, Miller & Washington in Washington, D.C. “The share price makes it look like Bank of America might be next in line,” he said.
Before Monday’s stock market rally, Bank of America shares had lost 52 percent in November alone, making them the second biggest decliner for the month in the KBW Banks index after Citigroup.
Analysts at independent research company CreditSights forecast that in a scenario where the commercial and residential real estate markets really tank beyond banks’ expectations, Bank of America would have a Tier-1 capital ratio of 7.15 percent.
The minimum that regulators seek to consider a bank “well capitalized” is 6 percent, but any ratio near or below 7 percent tends to spook investors.
Bank of America declined comment.
…
Bank of America, through its acquisition of Countrywide, has more than $250 billion in residential mortgages and while it has stopped offering some of the most toxic types of mortgages, chargeoffs in the portfolio are increasing.
Wells Fargo inherited a portfolio of more than $260 billion in consumer loans when it acquired Wachovia, and JPMorgan Chase & Co acquired exposure to some of the most risky classes of mortgages, in addition to its own large consumer loan portfolio, when it bought Washington Mutual Inc.
Still, there are big differences. Critically for Citigroup, investors lost confidence in the company and its management after it failed to buy Wachovia Corp, thereby losing an important potential source of deposit-based funding, analysts said.
“The difference between Citi and the other three is that Citi clearly had more suspect management,” said Mal Polley, chief investment officer at Stewart Capital Advisors in Pittsburgh. “They had not done enough to take the fat out of the system and right the ship,” he added.
But management at Bank of America and Wells Fargo, and even JPMorgan, widely regarded as the bank that has best survived the credit crisis to date, will need to allay investors’ concerns about their capital position as financial conditions worsen.
And if their losses are big enough, or investors fear they will be big enough, Bank of America and Wells Fargo could turn to the same place Citigroup did: the U.S. government.
“I definitely think other companies will need this help,” said Paul Miller, analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co in New York.
Research Credit: Lagavulin


