LEHMAN DOWN 40%
September 9th, 2008Via: Reuters:
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc shares fell as much as 40 percent on Tuesday to their lowest level in nearly a decade on concern the fourth-largest Wall Street investment bank would be unable to raise needed capital.
Much of the decline came after reports that Lehman’s talks with state-owned Korea Development Bank on a possible capital infusion had ended.
In early afternoon trading, Lehman shares were down $4.89, or 34.6 percent, at $9.26 on the New York Stock Exchange. They earlier fell to $8.50, their lowest level since October 1998, Reuters data show.
“The market fears that no one will inject capital in the company,” said Nick Kalivas, equity market analyst at MF Global Research in Chicago.
A Lehman spokeswoman declined to comment on the lower share price. In Washington, the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission also declined to comment.
Taxpayers Take on Trillions in Risk in Fannie, Freddie Takeover
September 9th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
I don’t use fundamental analysis to trade, but I’ve been looking at the FOREX charts and I really started to wonder, “How is the dollar continuing to run higher?”
I think one possible answer must be that, with the Fannie/Freddie bailout, investors like the fact that the people (U.S. Taxpayers) who are responsible for backing the dodgy debt have no choice but to pay up.
Well, it’s not quite no choice: My wife and I voluntarily live on a very low income, which doesn’t leave much for the taxman to take from us. And some Americans simply ignore the IRS, or use various “legal” tactics to try to avoid paying taxes, but these options have the potential to yield suboptimal results; such as the government seizing the individuals’ funds and property and potentially pointing guns at them. But these are the outliers.
Most Americans work hard, and pay their taxes on time.
The situation reminds me of those humans who are entombed in containers of nutrient agar in the Matrix movies. Their lifeforce is literally being sucked up to the top of the pyramid by entities who are out of sight, and out of mind. These entities must think something like, “No matter what outrages we carry out against these people, they don’t resist us. Why not turn the screws tighter? They’ll hardly notice, and so what if they do. We’ll just pump some more jelly into their brains and then take from them whatever we want.”
Well, that’s enough lallygagging, Citizen! Back to work!
Via: USA Today:
The unprecedented federal takeover of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae announced on Sunday is a bold attempt to stabilize financial markets and restore the faltering housing market, but it thrusts trillions of dollars of risk directly onto taxpayers’ shoulders.
“You can call it a bailout, you can call it a safety net or you can call it a rescue package, but the bottom line is the American taxpayer is left footing the bill,” says Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research.
French Cabinet Revolts Over Sarkozy’s Big Brother Database
September 9th, 2008Via: Times Online:
President Nicolas Sarkozy faced an embarrassing split in his Cabinet today over a computer system that a new French internal intelligence service will use to spy on the private lives of millions of law-abiding citizens.
Hervé Morin, the Defence Minister, broke government ranks to side with a growing revolt against Edvige, an acronym for a police database that will store personal details including opinions, the social circle and even sexual preferences of more or less anyone who interests the State.
Edvige, which is also a woman’s name, was created by decree in July to store data on anyone aged 13 or above who is “likely to breach public order”.
“Sarkozy’s Big Sister”, as it has been dubbed, will also track anyone active in politics or trade unions and in a significant role in business, the media, entertainment or social or religious institutions. Listed people will have limited rights to consult their files.
Police Can Sometimes Recover “Deleted” Information from Mobile Phones
September 9th, 2008Chip implants? Most people willingly carry their own surveillance team around in their pockets.
That’s right. If you use a mobile phone, the filth can track your position on the ground in real time AND activate the microphone, turning your mobile phone into a audio bugging device. And this is all while you’re not talking on the phone.
But as usual, it’s not that bad, it’s worse.
Via: San Francisco Chronicle:
Deep in the bowels of San Francisco’s Hall of Justice, Sgt. Wayne Hom plugs in a USB key to activate a new high-tech tool that has become the delight of cops, the bane of bad guys and a cloud over civil liberties – a device to extract contacts, text messages, pictures and videos from cell phones.
“Around here they call me Inspector Gadget because I can wire just about anything,” said Hom, a former gang task force officer who now battles crime digitally with a new genre of cell phone forensic extraction devices.
Hom said these devices – made by companies including Cellebrite, Data Pilot and Oxygen Software – often can extract text messages, pictures or contact lists that the phone owner thinks they have erased, so long as new data hasn’t written over the old location in the cell phone’s memory.
Robert Morgester, a California deputy attorney general and expert on the topic, said that since cell phone extraction devices became available in the past couple of years, they have quickly become vital tools in solving crimes.
“The reason why the cell phone is important is that you are carrying around a personal diary of who you talk to and often what you talked about,” Morgester said in reference not to conversations but rather to texting, adding: “Youth today communicate through MySpace and texting.”
Cell phone forensic extraction is a relatively new technology that grew out of a problem faced by consumers who switch cell phone carriers and want to port their old data to their new device, said Adi Ofrat, chief executive of Cellebrite, which has offices in Israel and New Jersey, one of the vendors the San Francisco Police Department uses.
Since 2000, his 70-person company has sold more than 50,000 office-based cell phone data conversion systems to mobile phone carriers worldwide, he said.
“About one-and-a-half years ago we were approached by certain government agencies that said, ‘We would like for you to provide us with XYZ,’ ” Ofrat said in a telephone interview from New Jersey.
Research Credit: ottilie
Britain Training Chinese Military Officers
September 8th, 2008I should create a Blowback category.
Via: Telegraph:
The government has breached EU rules banning military cooperation with China by allowing a Chinese army officer to study at Sandhurst.
Officer Cadet Liu Liu, who graduated from the Royal Military Academy last month, has spent the past year training alongside British army cadets.
A second Chinese People’s Liberation Army officer is expected to join the new intake at Sandhurst this week.
London Stock Exchange Trading Derailed by Computer Crash
September 8th, 2008This is… very interesting. Not in a good way.
Via: Telegraph:
Trading on the London Stock Exchange has been halted after a computer system failed on one of the most frantic days of trading so far this year.
In an embarrassment for the LSE, the exchange said that no orders can be entered or executions of those trades occur. The LSE plans to bring back trading in a “controlled way’’, but couldn’t say how long that will take.
The computer crash left the exchange’s customers fuming on a day of heavy trading following the US government’s bail-out of mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Traders said the exchange was suffering an ‘overloading’ caused partly because the FTSE 100 ended down sharply on Friday so traders who were betting on further falls in the index would have to close their positions.
Simon Denham, founder of Capital Spreads, said; “It (trading) went down at 8.44 am. This happens on the LSE two or three times a year, but I can’t remember it ever having been down this long.
advertisement
“I don’t know what excuse they will give – for the second biggest stock exchange in the world it’s pretty poor.”
The FTSE 100 had surged more than 3pc before trading was halted, following an earlier rally across Asia, on hopes that the nationalisation of America’s two biggest mortgage lenders may help revive the troubled US housing market.
Yes, The U.S. Did Kill 92 Afghan Civilians, 60 of Which Were Children
September 8th, 2008Via: Times Online:
As the doctor walks between rows of bodies, people lift funeral shrouds to reveal the faces of children and babies, some with severe head injuries.
Women are heard wailing in the background. “Oh God, this is just a child,” shouts one villager. Another cries: “My mother, my mother.”
The grainy video eight-minute footage, seen exclusively by The Times, is the most compelling evidence to emerge of what may be the biggest loss of civilian life during the Afghanistan war.
These are the images that have forced the Pentagon into a rare U-turn. Until yesterday the US military had insisted that only seven civilians were killed in Nawabad on the night of August 21.
Last night the Pentagon announced that it was reopening the investigation in the light of “emerging evidence” and was sending an officer to Nawabad to review its previous inquiry. Villagers and the UN insist that 92 were killed, including as many as 60 children. Locals say that the US and Afghan troops who came into the village looking for a Taleban commander, with US air support, used excessive force.
In the video scores of bodies are seen laid out in a building that villagers say is used as a mosque; the people were killed apparently during a combined operation by US special forces and Afghan army commandos in western Afghanistan. The film was shot on a mobile phone by an Afghan doctor who arrived the next morning.
Local people say that US forces bombed preparations for a memorial ceremony for a tribal leader. Residential compounds were levelled by US attack helicopters, armed drones and a cannon-armed C130 Spectre gunship.
“The Free Market”
September 8th, 2008Via: IHT:
Despite decades of free-market rhetoric from Republican and Democratic lawmakers, Washington has a long history of providing financial help to the private sector when the economic or political risk of a corporate collapse appeared too high.
The effort to save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is only the latest in a series of financial maneuvers by the government that stretch back to the rescue of the military contractor Lockheed Aircraft and the Penn Central Railroad under President Richard Nixon, the shoring up of Chrysler in the waning days of the Carter administration and the salvage of the U.S. savings and loan system in the late 1980s.
More recently, after airplanes were grounded because of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Congress approved $15 billion in subsidies and loan guarantees to the faltering airlines.
Now, with the U.S. government preparing to save Fannie and Freddie only six months after the Federal Reserve Board orchestrated the rescue of Bear Stearns, it appears that the mortgage crisis has forced the government to once again shove ideology aside and get into the bailout business.
“If anybody thought we had a pure free-market financial system, they should think again,” said Robert Bruner, dean of the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia.
Open Thread: Financial Situation Following Fannie and Freddie Takeovers
September 8th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
U.S. SEIZES FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC
September 8th, 2008We’ve seen this coming for weeks. Here it is.
Forget references to billions of dollars. This is a multi trillion dollar swindle, and all U.S. taxpayers are going to be walking funny as a result.
This represents a crime of such gigantic proportions that many people won’t even be able to fathom what has happened.
So it goes…
I’ve read a few stories about this so far and the Wall Street Journal piece below is pretty good snapshot of the unfolding situation. The full text is there. I bolded the parts that I found most noteworthy.
Via: Wall Street Journal:
In its most dramatic market intervention in years, the U.S. government seized two of the nation’s largest financial companies, taking direct responsibility for firms that provide funding for around three-quarters of new home mortgages.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced plans Sunday to take control of troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, replace the companies’ chief executives and provide up to $200 billion in capital to restore the firms to financial health. The Treasury’s plan puts the two companies under a conservatorship, giving management control to their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA. In return for agreeing to provide as much equity capital as needed later to cover losses stemming from mortgage defaults, the Treasury gets $1 billion of preferred stock in each company without providing any immediate cash.
With that, the U.S. mortgage crisis entered a new and uncharted phase, potentially saddling American taxpayers with billions of dollars in losses from home loans made by the private sector. Bush administration officials, backed cautiously by legislators on both sides of the aisle, argued that the cost of doing nothing would be far greater because of the toll on the economy of falling home prices and defaults in the $11 trillion U.S. mortgage market.
Mr. Paulson noted that more than $5 trillion of debt and mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie is owned by central banks and other investors world-wide. “Failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe,” Mr. Paulson said.
By taking this action, the government has seized control of the vast bulk of the secondary market for home mortgages, where these loans are sold to investors, and will have a more direct responsibility than ever for solving the housing crisis. The intervention also marks the failure of the public-private experiment that was created to boost home ownership among Americans. Though Fannie and Freddie were created by Congress to help prop up the housing market, they have long been owned by private shareholders seeking to maximize profits.
The federal takeover of mortgage giants was initially welcomed by banks and market watchers outside the U.S. as a way to dispel some of the uncertainty roiling the world’s financial markets. The intervention could eventually be a boon for Wall Street, by providing a boost to the moribund mortgage industry and by perhaps diminishing the influence of Wall Street’s two largest competitors in the market packaging and reselling mortgage-backed bonds.
The move is also likely to nudge down interest rates for consumers and help prevent a deepening of what is already the worst housing bust since the 1930s. Despite steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the cost of a typical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has remained well over 6% for most of the past year. To bolster the mortgage market, Treasury said it will buy, on the open market, at least $5 billion of new mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie.
The government rescue of Fannie and Freddie is likely to leave a trail of billions in losses for stock holders, including some major banks. But it protects the investments of bondholders, including mutual funds, foreign central banks and government investment funds that own large amount debt issued by the two companies. Investors such as Pacific Investment Management Co., the large Newport Beach, Calif., bond manager, that have loaded up recently on mortgage-backed bonds could benefit as Treasury purchases of such securities drive up their values.
It is unclear how much the government’s intervention will ultimately cost taxpayers. In exchange for agreeing to provide as much capital as needed to the companies as they cope with heavy losses on mortgage defaults, the Treasury will acquire $1 billion of preferred shares in each company. It has obtained warrants that give it the right to a stake of 79.9% for a nominal sum. The Treasury’s preferred shares will be senior to those earlier issued, meaning the government will have the first right to receive dividends.
The new overseers will also eliminate dividends on billions of common and preferred stock, moves that are expected to drive down the price of those shares, which have already dropped precipitously this year. The issue of additional preferred shares will dilute common shares.
“The common shareholders seem to be in worse shape than they were on Friday,” said Robert Napoli, an analyst at the securities firm Piper Jaffray in Chicago. “The preferred shareholders have much more hope of retaining significant value over the long run.”
Andrew Brenner, a senior vice president at MF Global Inc., a brokerage firm, said Fannie and Freddie common shares are likely to fall 50% to 75% in light of the government moves and preferred shares could fall about 30%.
That prospect is especially disturbing for some commercial banks and thrifts, which are among the biggest holders of Fannie and Freddie preferred stock. The Office of Thrift Supervision, a government agency that supervises savings and loans, said that roughly 2% of the 829 companies it regulates had a concentration in common or preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that surpassed 10% of their Tier 1 capital. Regulators said Sunday they would work with banks that hold large exposures to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “to develop capital-restoration plans” if necessary.
The Treasury’s move doesn’t answer what could be the $5 trillion question of what ultimately happens to Fannie and Freddie. Under the conservatorship of their regulator, the companies will still have their shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange, but management control goes to the regulator until it deems the companies financially healthy. Congress ultimately will have to decide in what form Fannie and Freddie will be relaunched or whether they will be replaced by different types of entities.
The Treasury plan limits the size of each company’s mortgage portfolios to a maximum of $850 billion as of the end of 2009. After that, the Treasury intends for the mortgage holdings to shrink about 10% a year until they reach about $250 billion at each company.
Wrangling over the future shape of Freddie and Fannie will likely be kicked to the next Congress. Already the majority Democrats are pushing back on elements of Treasury’s plan. “Good luck on that,” said Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee, when asked about the Treasury’s plan to start reducing the firms’ portfolios beginning in 2010. Mr. Frank called it a “more of a sop to the right” than a real policy prescription and said it wasn’t going to happen.
Many economists and analysts believe the government had to wade deeper into the mortgage market because for now “private markets are just not willing to put up the capital” for home mortgages at prices U.S. consumers could afford, said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Without government support for the mortgage market, home prices would fall much farther, exposing the country as a whole to greater economic strain, Ms. Wachter says.
The stunning turn of events for Fannie and Freddie are remarkable considering the two companies for so long shunned the riskiest type of mortgages, only to embrace those mortgages late in the game in an effort to regain market share from Wall Street rivals.
As early as 2005, Fannie executives publicly expressed concerns about growing risks in the mortgage market. In May of that year, Thomas Lund, a Fannie Mae executive vice president, said that lenders should be concerned if borrowers straining to afford homes were given loans allowing for low payments in the early years but storing up much higher ones for later. “In many cases the consumers may not understand all the risks,” he said.
Yet both companies expanded their exposure to riskier loans. At both Fannie and Freddie, so-called Alt-A loans, a category between prime and subprime, accounted for roughly 50% of credit losses in the second quarter, even though such loans accounted for only about 10% of the companies’ business. Alt-A mortgages include loans made with less than full documentation of borrowers’ income or assets.
“Business they thought was prime is turning out not to be prime because of limited documentation of income and declining home prices,” said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.
As these and other loans — including many in areas such as California and Florida that are among the hardest hit by the housing crisis — started to go bad, the companies made a series of missteps. They failed to raise enough capital late last year, when investors were still fairly bullish on their prospects, to see them through the current storm. The companies have recorded combined losses totaling about $14 billion over the past four quarters, eating deeply into their meager capital holdings. Most analysts expect them to report sizable losses for at least another couple of years as the costs of foreclosures mount.
Fannie and Freddie’s credit problems are largely a reflection of the overall weakness in the housing market. Some 9.2% of mortgages on one-to-four family homes were at least a month overdue or in the foreclosure process in the second quarter, according to the latest survey of the Mortgage Bankers Association. That is the highest percentage in the 39 years that the trade group has been doing the surveys.
“Make no mistake, anybody in the mortgage business is going to see much higher losses than they thought they would a year ago because we’ve had the worst housing market and the largest home price declines that anybody has seen,” said Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Leesburg, Va., who formerly worked for Fannie.
Both companies are also heavily exposed to some of the mortgage industry’s most troubled players. Countrywide Financial Corp., now part of Bank of America Corp., was the largest provider of loans purchased by Fannie Mae, accounting for 29% of its business in 2007, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, and was the second largest source of loans for Freddie Mac, with a 16% share.
At Fannie, Herb Allison, who formerly served as chairman of the investment company TIAA-CREF, succeeds Daniel Mudd. Freddie’s chief executive, Richard Syron, was replaced by David Moffett, who has been vice chairman and chief financial officer of US Bancorp.
Mr. Syron may walk away with an exit package that could total as much as $15 million, says David Schmidt, a senior consultant at James F. Reda & Associates LLC, a compensation consulting concern in New York. That includes a pension and deferred compensation, about $3.7 million in severance pay and a possible payment of $8.8 million to compensate for forfeiting recent equity grants.
Mr. Mudd’s exit package, including stock he already owns, could total $14 million, Mr. Schmidt estimates. That includes $5 million in pension and deferred compensation, $4.2 million in severance pay and $3.4 million of restricted stock, based on Friday’s closing price. That value of that stock could fall sharply, however.


