The Real Rate of U.S. Inflation Is Now 13%

August 26th, 2008

In case you don’t understand why there are so many exclamation points in the piece below, they are an essential part of the The Mogambo Guru’s style manual.

Via: Contrarian Profits:

When you look at what John Williams at shadowstats.com calculates as inflation, according to the time-honored method of actually looking at real prices instead of the “qualified estimates” that are used today, you will see that annual inflation in consumer prices is actually running at over 13%!

…

Mr. Cherniawski coolly says that I don’t know the literal half of it, as “The alarming part of this report is the acceleration of inflation in the past 3 months. While the unadjusted rate for the past 12 months was 6.2%, the 3-month annualized rate of increase was 11.9%.” Yikes! We’re freaking doomed!

The report itself noted, without any hint of alarm, that “On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.8 percent in July, following a 1.1 percent increase in June.” Yow!

Some of the terrifying specifics were that the energy index rose 4%, which accounted for “about half of the overall increase in the all items index.”

The worse news for people who eat food is that “the food index rose 0.9 percent in July after rising 0.8 percent in June. Indexes for five of the six major grocery store food groups rose at least 1.0 percent.” In one freaking month! This is outrageous inflation!


“There is no such thing as Euroland.”

August 26th, 2008

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

These data are pointing to a stronger dollar, as f*@#$%* nuts as that might sound. Why might it not be f*@#$%* nuts?

Europe has problems.

But leave it to a Brit to write, “There is no such thing as Euroland.”

Via: MarketWatch:

There is a simple reason why the members of Economic and Monetary Union all have different views about the economy: there is no such thing as Euroland. When a collection of politically and economically disparate states get together to unify their currencies, and wide policy and structural divergences remain years after monetary union is consummated, it is only a matter of time before something goes awry. This may be happening now.

The German Bundesbank, still the most influential Euro area national central bank 10 years after it handed decision-making to the European Central Bank, has recently been speaking of a “robust” German and European economy. The German central bank has been roundly defending the ECB’s interest rate hike last month as a necessary anti-inflationary measure. The Bundesbank, though, is something of a lone voice. A growing number of economic experts in various European countries believe the ECB may soon have to rescind the 1/4 point interest rate rise announced in July.


Beijing Swells Dollar Reserves Through Stealth

August 26th, 2008

There’s a lot of head scratching on the dollar rally (which is continuing).

Via: Telegraph:

China has resorted to stealth intervention in the currency markets to amass US dollars, using indirect means to hold down the yuan and ease the pain for its struggling exporters as the global slowdown engulfs the economy.

A study by HSBC’s currency team in Asia has concluded that China’s central bank is in effect forcing commercial banks to build up large dollar reserves, using them as arms-length proxies in a renewed campaign of exchange rate intervention.

Beijing has raised the reserve requirement for banks five times since March, quickening the pace with two half-point rises in late June.

This is having major spill-over effects into the currency markets because banks in China have been required over the last year to hold extra reserves in dollars rather than yuan. The latest moves have lifted the mandatory deposit from 15pc to 17.5pc of total lending since March.

“China has used the pretext of reserve requirement hikes to help slow yuan appreciation. We estimate that the PBOC [central bank] intervened by about $49.6bn in June,” said Daniel Hui, the bank’s Asia strategist.

Beijing has also slashed the amount of foreign debt banks operating in China can hold. The effect is to oblige the banks to become net buyers of dollars, halting the flow of foreign “hot money”.

Given the sheer scale of China’s foreign reserves – now $1,800bn (£970bn) – any shift in its exchange policy now ripples around the globe. The covert buying may help to explain at least part of the explosive dollar rebound over recent weeks.

There is little doubt that the key driver behind the wild currency ructions this summer has been the blizzard of dire data from Britain, Europe, Japan and Australasia. The mounting danger of a full-fledged recession across the club of rich OECD nations appears to have caught the markets off guard.

The closely watched Dollar Index reached an all-time low in March. It crept up gradually in the early summer before smashing through resistance in July.

The world’s currency system is swivelling on its axis. Central banks in Asia and Europe have stopped raising rates, and some have begun to cut aggressively. The Federal Reserve is no longer nakedly exposed. Indeed, investors are already starting to look ahead to the next round of Fed tightening.


Barack Obama Assassination Plot?

August 26th, 2008

Reminds me of Jane Greenhow and her friends.

The feds are already saying hinting that there’s nothing to see here. That’s almost certainly because the feds are involved—in a COINTEL capacity—with this crew.

Via: Telegraph:

One of the group said he was “going to shoot Obama”, who is in Denver, Colorado, for the Democratic National Convention, “from a high vantage point using a rifle sighted at 750 yards”.

Police said that one of the suspects “was directly asked if they had come to Denver to kill Obama. He responded in the affirmative”.

The shooting was planned for Thursday, when Mr Obama is set to accept the nomination as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate for the November election at the 75,000-seat Invesco stadium.

Tharin Gartrell, 28, who was wanted on numerous warrants, was arrested on Sunday after police found two high-powered rifles, boxes of ammunition, a rifle scope, a bullet-proof vest, walkie-talkies and methamphetamine in a rented truck he was driving.

Gartrell then led police to a hotel, where a second man, Shawn Robert Adolph, 33, tried to jump out of a sixth-storey window. After landing on an awning and trying to escape with a broken ankle, Adolph, who had a handcuff ring and was wearing a swastika, according to reports, was eventually arrested.

An associate of Gartrell and Adolph, Nathan Johnson, 32, and his girlfriend, Natasha Gromek, were also arrested. Johnson is understood to have told authorities that the two men “planned to kill Barack Obama at his acceptance speech.”

It is thought the men may have ties to Sons of Silence, an outlaw biker group, with suspected connections with white supremacists. However, federal sources have said that the incident may have had more to do with drugs than with a plot to assassinate Mr Obama, despite local police claims.

The federal officials said that the verbal threats against Mr Obama were made during one of the arrests, but were not considered credible. “It could turn out that these were nothing but a bunch of knuckleheads, meth heads,” a US government source has claimed.

The US Attorney’s Office in Denver has scheduled a press conference to discuss the incident, but Attorney Troy Eid said he did not believe there was a real threat to Mr Obama.

The alleged plot was being investigated by the Secret Service, which is co-ordinating security for the Democratic Party convention, as well as the FBI and the joint terrorism task force.

Mr Obama has been under Secret Service protection for over a year after receiving credible death threats.


Marijuana Grow House Found In Mall Of The Americas

August 25th, 2008

Via: CFNews13:

MIAMI — The Drug Enforcement Administration discovered something unexpected in the Mall of the Americas.

DEA agents found a hydroponics lab with more than 200 marijuana plants, standing 3 to 6 feet tall in the air and worth millions of dollars, in a storage area on the second floor of the mall.

Authorities said the electricity that powered the lab was diverted from the mall’s main power supply.

No arrests have been made. Authorities said officials with the Mall of the Americas are cooperating with the investigation.

Research Credit: EB


FDIC Gets Ready for Bank Failures

August 25th, 2008

Via: Statesman:

Hundreds could fail, some industry experts predict. That could force the agency to make good on its promise to insure most customers’ checking and savings deposits up to $100,000 and some retirement accounts up to $250,000, putting pressure on its insurance fund.

Is the agency, whose combined insurance funds were technically pushed into insolvency during the savings and loan debacle two decades ago, ready for another banking crisis? And how bad could it get?

Despite the frequent gloom on both Wall Street and Main Street, industry players seem confident in the overall resiliency of the banking industry and the FDIC’s ability to shelter customers from bank failures.

The FDIC, which had shrunk to 4,600 employees from 23,000 at the height of the savings and loan meltdown, has been gearing up for another wave of bank failures.

It’s hiring 70 new employees and bringing back 70 retirees to beef up its teams that swoop in, usually over a weekend, to take over and reopen banks under new management.

The FDIC’s Atlanta regional office, which covers seven states from West Virginia to Florida, also recently boosted its bank examiner and professional staff by about 10 percent, to about 300. The agency is also expected to soon raise the insurance premiums it charges banks and thrifts to begin rebuilding its reserves.


Russia Warns Moldova Against “Georgian Mistake”

August 25th, 2008

Via: Reuters:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned ex-Soviet Moldova on Monday against repeating Georgia’s mistake of trying to use force to seize back control of a breakaway region.

Russia sent peacekeepers to Moldova in the early 1990s to end a conflict between Chisinau and its breakaway Transdniestria region and is trying to mediate a deal between the two sides.

Transdniestria, one of a number of “frozen conflicts” on the territory of the former Soviet Union, mirrored the standoff between Georgia and its rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until they erupted in war earlier this month.

Russia sent troops to Georgia to crush Tbilisi’s military push into South Ossetia and Moscow says Georgia has now lost the chance of ever re-integrating the breakaway provinces.

“After the Georgian leadership lost their marbles, as they say, all the problems got worse and a military conflict erupted,” Medvedev told Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin.

“This is a serious warning, a warning to all,” he added. “And I believe we should handle other existing conflicts in this context.”

As the two leaders spoke in Medvedev’s Black Sea residence in Sochi, Russian lawmakers were voting non-binding resolutions urging the Kremlin to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.

That would be a nightmare scenario for Moldova which fears Russia could recognize Transdniestria, a pro-Moscow region in Moldova.


Danish Central Bank Nationalizes Roskilde Bank After Efforts to Find Buyer Failed

August 25th, 2008

Via: Bloomberg:

The Danish Central Bank will lead a buyout of Roskilde Bank A/S after a slumping property market drove the lender into insolvency and a private purchaser couldn’t be found.

Roskilde will receive 4.5 billion kroner ($890 million) in cash from the central bank and Danish lenders. The purchasers will also assume 37.3 billion kroner of debt, Roskilde said in a statement yesterday. The shares were suspended in Copenhagen trading today, after falling 75 percent this year.

Writedowns on real estate loans led to a pretax loss of at least 1 billion kroner in the first half, double an estimate the bank published on July 14, Roskilde said yesterday. Denmark became the first European economy to enter a recession since the global credit crisis began, as declining property values prompted consumers to spend less. The bailout is the first by the Danish central bank in 15 years.

“The central bank views this matter with great seriousness,” Nationalbanken, as the central bank is known, said in the statement. “This acquisition will contribute to limiting the negative effect on Denmark’s financial system” of Roskilde’s failure.

Roskilde, based in the Danish city of the same name, received “unlimited liquidity” from the central bank on July 10 and the Danish Bankers Association agreed to cover as much as 750 million kroner of losses. The central bank said at the time the backing was conditional on Roskilde finding a buyer within six months.


Russian Parliament Votes to Recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia

August 25th, 2008

Via: Bloomberg:

Both houses of the Russian parliament called on President Dmitry Medvedev to recognize the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions that sparked Russia’s first foreign military incursion since the Soviet era.

“Today we are faced with, I’m not afraid to say, a historic decision, to call upon the president of the Russian Federation to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Sergei Mironov, the speaker of the upper house, said in an address to lawmakers in Moscow today.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which broke away from Georgia in wars in the early 1990s, have cited Kosovo’s Feb. 17 declaration of independence from Serbia as a precedent for their aspirations. Medvedev — who alone can decide on whether to recognize the territories — has said previously that Russia supports the regions’ decisions on their future status, while stopping short of formally recognizing them. President George W. Bush has insisted the regions remain a part of Georgia.

Both the lower chamber, the state Duma, and the upper house, the Federation Council, voted unanimously in support of independence.

“Medvedev will recognize both regions,” said Alexander Rahr, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “There’s no way out,” he said. “This is a consequence of the recognition of Kosovo by the West and Western policy in the Balkans.”

Russian Troops

The vote “is yet another escalation of the geo-political tensions in central and eastern Europe and is likely to further worsen the relationship between Russia and the West,” said Lars Christensen, head of emerging markets research at Danske Bank in Copenhagen.


Uncle Sam Wants Your Brain

August 25th, 2008

Via: Wired:

Drugs that make soldiers want to fight. Robots linked directly to their controllers’ brains. Lie-detecting scans administered to terrorist suspects as they cross U.S. borders.

These are just a few of the military uses imagined for cognitive science — and if it’s not yet certain whether the technologies will work, the military is certainly taking them very seriously.

“It’s way too early to know which — if any — of these technologies is going to be practical,” said Jonathan Moreno, a Center for American Progress bioethicist and author of Mind Wars: Brain Research and National Defense. “But it’s important for us to get ahead of the curve. Soldiers are always on the cutting edge of new technologies.”

Moreno is part of a National Research Council committee convened by the Department of Defense to evaluate the military potential of brain science. Their report, “Emerging Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies,” was released today. It charts a range of cognitive technologies that are potentially powerful — and, perhaps, powerfully troubling.

Research Credit: PD


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