Billboards that Look Back

May 31st, 2008

Pretty high creep-out factor here.

Via: New York Times:

In advertising these days, the brass ring goes to those who can measure everything — how many people see a particular advertisement, when they see it, who they are. All of that is easy on the Internet, and getting easier in television and print.

Billboards are a different story. For the most part, they are still a relic of old-world media, and the best guesses about viewership numbers come from foot traffic counts or highway reports, neither of which guarantees that the people passing by were really looking at the billboard, or that they were the ones sought out.

Now, some entrepreneurs have introduced technology to solve that problem. They are equipping billboards with tiny cameras that gather details about passers-by — their gender, approximate age and how long they looked at the billboard. These details are transmitted to a central database.

Behind the technology are small start-ups that say they are not storing actual images of the passers-by, so privacy should not be a concern. The cameras, they say, use software to determine that a person is standing in front of a billboard, then analyze facial features (like cheekbone height and the distance between the nose and the chin) to judge the person’s gender and age. So far the companies are not using race as a parameter, but they say that they can and will soon.

The goal, these companies say, is to tailor a digital display to the person standing in front of it — to show one advertisement to a middle-aged white woman, for example, and a different one to a teenage Asian boy.


Eurozone Inflation Reaches 16-Year High

May 31st, 2008

Via: Financial Times:

Eurozone inflation surged to the highest rate for 16 years on the back of sharply higher oil prices as consumer spending in the 15-country region showed further signs of weakness.

Annual inflation in the eurozone reached 3.6 per cent in May, according to official data released on Friday, up from 3.3 per cent in the previous month. That appeared to rule out any chance of an early cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank, which aims to keep inflation “below but close” to 2 per cent.

Evidence also emerged that higher prices were wreaking economic damage by forcing households to retrench. Germany reported a surprise 1.7 per cent drop in April retail sales, extending a 2.2 per cent fall in March.

This week, the European Commission reported eurozone consumer confidence had plunged in May to its lowest level for almost three years.

As well as driving inflation higher, the soaring cost of fuel has led to Europe-wide protests this week – with fishermen blocking ports in France and on Friday giving out fish free in Madrid.


Large UK Stores Ration Rice Purchases

May 31st, 2008

Via: Financial Times:

Supermarket chains have begun rationing rice as the effects of rising prices and disruptions to supply spill over from specialist grocers and suppliers to larger stores.

Netto, the Danish-owned discount store, has been restricting sales of larger bags of rice to one per person in all stores in recent weeks across the UK.

Mike Hinchcliffe, marketing manager for Netto UK, said: “We’re temporarily limiting our larger 10 kg bags of rice to one per customer because, like most other UK supermarkets, we are having to manage and minimise the impact the global rice shortage is having on our suppliers.

“We are experiencing a high demand for rice and have introduced this measure across our 184 UK stores to ensure that all of our customers have a fair opportunity to make their regular rice purchases. Our smaller 1kg packs remain on free sale with no restrictions planned at this time.” It expects the restriction to continue “indefinitely”.


Chertoff: “Novel” Israeli Security Methods Coming to U.S. Airports

May 30th, 2008

Mmm hmm.

Via: Reuters:

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said on Thursday he will seek to adopt novel Israeli methods, like behaviour-detection technologies, to better secure America’s airports.

“That’s a scenario where Israel has a lot of experience,” Chertoff said in an interview with Reuters. “I think that it is of interest to us to see if there is any adaptation there.”

Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport, known for its strict security measures, relies heavily on techniques that detect suspicious behaviour among travellers.

Chertoff said such methods, as well as Israeli technologies that detect explosives, are some of the things that may help protect U.S. airports and other public places against attacks.

Chertoff, at a conference in Jerusalem for public and homeland security ministers from around the world, signed an agreement with Israel to share technology and information on methods to improve homeland security.

One of the new systems presented at the conference, developed by the Israeli technology company WeCU, uses behavioural science, together with biometric sensors, to detect sinister intentions among travellers.

The U.S. homeland security chief said that not all methods developed and used in Israel, such as questioning every passenger, are practical in larger U.S. airports.

Israel’s Ben Gurion handles about 9 million travellers a year while major U.S. hubs, like Chicago O’Hare, see some 76 million passengers.


U.S., British Oil Probes Focusing on Price Manipulation

May 30th, 2008

Assume maximum criminal behavior…

—Insider Crimes, Funny Money and Options Rackets

The parts I found especially interesting are in bold. I think my favorite phrase is, “generally not illegal.” You might like the part about the Enron style antics. Or maybe the questionable reporting of reserves. But there’s plenty of fun for the whole family here.

Via: Reuters:

A U.S. regulatory probe into potential oil-market trading abuses is focusing on possible short-term manipulation of benchmark crude prices and the use of information related to important oil storage tanks to influence prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

The report comes a day after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, under pressure from U.S. lawmakers to crack down on speculators they blame for pushing energy prices to record highs, said it would step up market surveillance.

The CFTC announced a nationwide investigation into energy trading last December, but is in fact pursuing several oil investigations, many of which relate to one another, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with enforcement priorities of the agency.

It has expanded its probe into alleged short-term manipulation of crude-oil prices via a widely used price-reporting system run by Platts, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos, the newspaper reported.

The probes appear to focus on gambits well known by traders in the opaque physical oil market, where trading a small volume of cash crude or gasoline during a short period when benchmark prices are set can yield big profits on derivatives positions.

Oil traders say that these kind of leveraged trading plays — which are generally not illegal — were more common prior to the Enron melt-down and the California power trading scandal that triggered increased scrutiny of world energy markets earlier this decade, but rarely had a lasting effect on prices.

However traders and analysts believe that increased investment from pension and other funds into commodities markets is partly responsible for causing prices to quadruple since 2004, with U.S. crude hitting a record high of $135.09 a barrel last week after rising by more than 40 percent this year alone.

The Journal quoted CFTC enforcement chief Gregory Mocek as saying the agency has about 60 manipulation investigations open in various commodity markets.

On Thursday the CFTC said it would expand its oversight of energy trading by tracking index funds, and had reached an agreement with the U.K.’s Financial Services Authority and ICE Futures Europe to share information.

WINDOW TRADE, STORAGE TANKS

One suspicion, the newspaper said, is that energy companies and traders have at times issued a flood of orders during the trading “window” used by Platts to determine its reported prices for physical oil transactions, then used the potentially distorted prices to make profits in other markets.

According to the Journal, Platts has said its system has safeguards to protect against manipulation. Subpoenas on the matter have gone out in several stages, the report cited people familiar with the cases as saying.

A Platts spokesman was not immediately available to comment.

The Journal cited people familiar with the matter as saying the agency has also been questioning traders about similar activity in the jet-fuel market.

Another area of concern for CFTC regulators is whether the owners of crude-oil storage tanks use their knowledge to make bets on oil-futures markets.

In theory, the owner of a tank could issue misleading information about the tanks being full or empty, leaving the wrong impression about whether oil is in plentiful supply. Then they could make trades to profit on the misunderstanding.

Regulators have long been wary of allowing any one company to gain too much control over storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange’s light, sweet crude oil contract, the world’s main benchmark.

Government regulators forced BP to sell the Cushing storage assets of ARCO before allowing it to buy the U.S. company in 2001. BP is no longer the biggest tank holder at Cushing.

Related: CBOT Resembles Carnival Act as Billion Dollar Black Box Operators Move In


Venezuela Arrests U.S. “DEA Agent”

May 30th, 2008

Uh, when DEA isn’t operating in Venezuela? And “the DEA agent” was carrying Canadian and French passports…

Via: Reuters:

Venezuela said on Thursday it arrested a man who identified himself as a U.S. anti-drugs agent, which if confirmed could inflame tensions between the United States and one of its biggest oil suppliers.

President Hugo Chavez in 2005 ended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), saying the agency was spying on him. The United States denied the charge and says Chavez does too little to stop trafficking from neighboring Colombia, the world’s largest cocaine exporter.

Gen. Gabriel Oviedo said the man was acting suspicious when he was detained close to the border with Colombia while bearing Canadian and French passports and a Venezuelan identity card.

“The official at the scene proceeded to interrogate him and he said he was a DEA agent,” Oviedo told state television.

The U.S. Embassy in Caracas said it had no knowledge of the arrest.

Relations have deteriorated since a failed 2002 coup against Chavez that Washington initially welcomed.

Tensions increased this month. The United States said new evidence of Chavez’s ties to Colombian rebels was troubling, while the leftist charged a U.S. military jet that entered Venezuelan airspace was spying on the OPEC nation.


Cryptogon Readers Send Contributions

May 30th, 2008

AH sent $15. AZ sent $20. JR sent £10.00.

Thank you.


U.S. Banks Likely to Fail as Bad Loans Soar

May 30th, 2008

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

I’ve been posting fewer financial doom stories, but this one is worth reading, especially for U.S. bank account holders. Watch those FDIC limits, move your money out of the U.S., consider cash in hand strategies and weigh the risks of doing that.

Via: Financial Times:

US banks set aside a record $37.1bn to cover losses on real estate loans and other credits during the first quarter in a sign of the growing economic pain being caused by the global credit crisis, regulators said on Thursday.

Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said it was likely loan-loss provisions and bank failures would rise in coming quarters as the fallout from market turmoil hits the real economy.

“While we may be past the worst of the turmoil in financial markets, we’re still in the early stages of the traditional credit crisis you typically see during an economic downturn,” she said, adding: “What we really need to focus on is the uncertainty surrounding the economy . . . and again it is all about housing.”

Ms Bair spoke as the FDIC released its quarterly banking profile, which showed loan-loss provisions in the first quarter were more than four times higher than last year’s level. That was the main reason bank earnings fell 46 per cent to $19.3bn from the first quarter in 2007 for the commercial banks and savings institutions where the FDIC insures customer deposits.

Following restatements by banks, the FDIC revised the industry’s net income for the fourth quarter of last year from $5.8bn to $646m – the lowest since the end of 1990.

Meanwhile, the FDIC said the number of “problem” banks rose in the first quarter from 76 to 90, with combined assets of $26.3bn. Three US banks have failed this year, compared with three for the whole of last year and none in 2005 and 2006.

Ms Bair said she expected more bank failures but emphasised that the number of problem institutions remained well below the record levels of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s – when one in 10 banks were in that category.

However, she said one worrying trend was the declining “coverage ratio”, which compares bank reserves with the level of loans that are 90 days past due. This ratio fell for the eighth consecutive quarter, to 89 cents in reserves for every $1 of noncurrent loans, the lowest level since the first quarter of 1993.

“This is the kind of thing that gives regulators heartburn,” said Ms Bair. “We also want them to beef up their capital cushions beyond regulatory minimums given uncertainty about the housing markets and the economy . . . It’s only prudent to be building up capital at a time like this.”

In a sign that some US banks may have underestimated the cost of the housing slump, KeyCorp this week doubled its forecast for loan losses – its second revision in as many months – sending its share price tumbling by more than 10 per cent. During the property boom, KeyCorp expanded in fast-growing regions such as southern California and Florida, where problem loans are now growing.


UK House Price Decline Accelerating

May 29th, 2008

Via: BBC:

UK house prices have recorded their largest monthly fall since 1991, says the Nationwide building society.

Prices have fallen by 2.5% during May, according to its latest monthly survey.

The lender said prices were now 4.4% lower than a year ago, a drop of £8,000, which has taken the average UK house price down to £173,583.

The Nationwide, the UK’s second-largest lender, said price falls were now accelerating and had continued for seven months in a row.

“The pace of house price falls accelerated in May as more weak economic news added to the gathering momentum of negative sentiment about the housing market,” said Fionnuala Earley, the Nationwide’s chief economist.

“At seven months, this is also the longest consecutive period of monthly falls since 1992,” she added.


Pickens Orders $2 Billion Worth of Wind Turbines from GE

May 29th, 2008

Via: The Street:

Mesa Power, a company run by well-known energy investor T. Boone Pickens, has ordered nearly 700 wind turbines from GE as part of its plans for a giant wind farm in Texas.

The company placed a $2 billion order for 667 turbines for the Pampa Wind Project, which will ultimately provide more than 4,000 megawatts of electricity, or enough for more than 1 million homes. The project will be completed in four phases.

Mesa will start getting the turbines in 2010 and 2011.

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