Import Prices Rise 2.7%, the Most in 17 Years

December 13th, 2007

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

There’s lots of yammering about gold rising here, but until we break above 845, it’s range bound slop and whipsaws. Congratulations, though, to the Cryptogon falling knife catchers, who have done very well recently.

Let me consult my Magic 8-Ball: All of this nice consolidation around 800… I would expect to see a very sharp sell off, followed by a very sharp rally higher. That sharp sell off is called some variation of, “shaking the apple tree.” The point is to frighten suckers to sell so the smart money can acquire more of the asset at a discount. This is the part of buy low, sell high that you don’t learn about unless you’ve gotten bloody as trader. The translation, for smart money players is, “Induce short term panic to get valuable assets as a discount.”

Now, aren’t you glad that you’re not trading this thing!?

Via: MarketWatch:

Driven by a weaker dollar and much higher prices for petroleum and natural gas, import prices surged 2.7% in November, the largest monthly increase in 17 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Even excluding fuels, import prices rose 0.5%.

Import prices have now risen 11.4% in the past year, the largest gain in the 25-year history of the import price index. Import prices increased a downwardly revised 1.4% in October.

The report comes one day after the Federal Reserve cut its overnight interest rate target by a quarter percentage point, citing slower economic growth. However, the Fed also said some inflationary pressures remain, which could be an argument against cutting rates further.

The import price index report certainly highlighted the inflationary dangers facing the Fed and the economy. More bad inflationary news is likely over the next two days with the release of the producer price index on Thursday and the consumer price index on Friday.

“Today’s data imply substantial upside inflation risk over the near-term,” wrote Mike Englund, chief economist for Action Economics.


U.S. DOLLAR HOLDERS MAY BE FORCED TO ACCEPT IMF RESERVE ASSETS IF THEY WANT TO DIVERSIFY; FLOOD OF DOLLARS THREATENS GLOBAL ECONOMY

December 12th, 2007

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

“This is the warning I’ve been repeating for years: You do not want to try to reach the exit as millions of other people attempt to do the same thing. Waiting for clarity is not often rewarded.

— Cryptogon: Waiting for Clarity on the Brink of Oblivion

This is easily the most dire financial story in a generation.

I almost tagged the title with EMERGENCY, but I didn’t because the plan outlined below hasn’t been implemented yet. This is, however, almost certainly a warning of major dislocations ahead.

In my portfolio ideas post, I discussed the strategy that I have employed with our meager savings. That strategy called for 65% of our portfolio to be held in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar.

That strategy has worked well for us and sophisticated investors who have been a few steps ahead of the curve.

The problem, however, is that the herd now smells danger and the people who run the show want to block the exits. They want to try to contain the problem; keep it from spilling out into the rest of the world.

That problem is the U.S. Dollar.

Writing in the Financial Times, former Council on Foreign Relations economist, C. Fred Bergsten, lays out a global financial crisis management scenario that calls on the International Monetary Fund to absorb the flood of dollars that are looking for safety outside of the United States. Depositors would be issued instruments called SDRs (Special Drawing Rights), which the IMF defines as, “an an international reserve asset,” comprised of a, “basket of currencies, today consisting of the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, and U.S. dollar.”

I’m not going to try to speculate as to what this plan would mean, because I don’t think there’s any way to comprehend how serious the implications would be.

States are considering controls to prevent U.S. Dollars from moving into their currencies, bloating them up and making their exports too expensive. There’s just too many dollars and not enough places for them to go. This is a global problem, and the IMF appears to be stepping into the vacuum that the collapse of the dollar is creating.

In summary: Ordo ab chao…

Via: Financial Times:

How to solve the problem of the dollar

By Fred Bergsten

Published: December 10 2007 19:24 | Last updated: December 10 2007 19:24

The world economy faces an acute policy dilemma that, if mishandled, could bring on the mother of all monetary crises. Many dollar holders, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds as well as private investors, clearly want to diversify into other currencies. Since foreign dollar holdings total at least $20,000bn, even a modest realisation of these desires could produce a free fall of the US currency and huge disruptions to markets and the world economy. Fears of such an outcome have risen sharply in both official circles and the markets.

However, none of the countries into whose currencies the diversification would take place want to receive these inflows. The eurozone, the UK, Canada and Australia among others believe that their exchange rates are already substantially overvalued. But China and most of the other Asian countries continue to intervene heavily to keep their currencies from rising significantly. Hence, further large shifts out of the dollar could indeed push the floating currencies far above their equilibrium levels, generating new imbalances and a possibly severe slowdown in global growth.

There is only one solution to this dilemma that would satisfy all parties: creation of a substitution account at the International Monetary Fund through which unwanted dollars could be converted into special drawing rights, the international money created initially by the fund in 1969 and of which $34bn-worth now exists. Such an account was worked out in great detail in 1978-1980 during an earlier bout of currency diversification and free fall of the dollar that closely resembled today’s circumstances.

There was widespread agreement, including from influential private sector groups and congressional leaders as well as the IMF’s governing body, that the initiative would enhance global monetary stability. It failed only because the sharp rise in the dollar that followed the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening of 1979-1980 obviated much of its rationale, and over disagreement between Europe and the US on how to make up for any nominal losses that the account might suffer as a result of further depreciation of dollars that had been consolidated.

The idea of a substitution account is simple. Instead of converting dollars into other currencies through the market, depressing the former and strengthening the latter, official holders could deposit their unwanted holdings in a special account at the IMF. They would be credited with a like amount of SDR (or SDR-denominated certificates), which they could use to finance future balance-of-payment deficits and other legitimate needs, redeem at the account itself or transfer to other participants. Hence the asset would be fully liquid.

The fund’s members would authorise it to meet the demand by issuing as many new SDR as needed, which would have no net impact on the global money supply (and hence on world growth or inflation) because the operation would substitute one asset for another. The account would invest the dollar deposits in US securities. If additional backing were deemed necessary, the fund’s gold holdings of $80bn would more than suffice.

All countries would benefit. Those with dollars that they deem excessive would receive an asset denominated in a basket of currencies (44 per cent dollars, 34 per cent euros, 11 per cent each yen and sterling), achieving in a single stroke the diversification they seek along with market-based yields. They would avoid depressing the dollar excessively, minimising the loss on their remaining dollar holdings as well as avoiding systemic disruption.

The US would be spared the risk of higher inflation and potentially much higher interest rates that would stem from an even sharper decline of the dollar. Such consequences would be especially unwelcome today with the prospect of subdued US growth or even recession over the next year or so.

The international financial architecture would be greatly strengthened by a substitution account. In the wake of the dollar crises of the early postwar period, the IMF membership adopted SDR as the centrepiece of a strategy to build an international monetary system that would no longer rely on a single currency.

The move to floating exchange rates by most major countries in the 1970s postponed the need to pursue that strategy to its conclusion but also generated the extreme currency instability that triggered official consideration of an account. The global imbalances and large currency swings in recent years, and the accelerated accumulation of official dollar holdings by countries that have essentially reverted to fixed exchange rates, replicate the conditions that led to both the creation of SDR and the negotiations on an account.

A substitution account would not solve all international monetary problems nor would it suffice to restore a stable global financial system.

The dollar needs to decline further to restore equilibrium in the US external position. China, many other Asian countries and most oil exporters will have to accept substantial increases in their currencies now and much more flexible exchange rates for the long run. But early adoption of a substitution account would minimise the risks of adjustment of the present imbalances and the inevitable structural shift to a bipolar monetary system based on the euro as well as the dollar.

The writer is director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He was assistant secretary of the Treasury for international affairs in 1977-1981 and led the substitution account negotiations for the US in 1980

Related: Council on Foreign Relations on U.S. Dollar: “An Absurdity… Supported Only by Faith”

Related: Lessons for Today’s Market in 1907 Panic

Research Credit: PR (Special Thanks)


UK: McDonald’s Security Contractor Uses License Plate Recognition to Fine Slow Eaters

December 12th, 2007

Don’t worry. You might be able to pay your fast food parking fine with the carbon credits that you’ll receive from your voluntary sterilization to stop global warming.

No?

Via: Guardian:

The question of just how long it should take to eat fast food is being answered by the burger giant McDonald’s, which is making customers finish within 45 minutes or face a charge of £125.

Motorists who care to linger over their McMeals for any longer at some drive-throughs are receiving demands from a private company that manages car parks for the burger chain.

If they do not pay, the fee rises steadily and customers are threatened with court action and approached by bailiffs. A spokeswoman for McDonald’s said the 45-minute restrictions had been introduced at about 40 restaurants because car parks were being abused. She said signs explaining the policy were displayed and leaflets given out.

Many supermarkets and restaurants are handing over the management of their car parks to companies which use number plate recognition cameras to log when people enter and leave.

If they stay too long, the details of the registered keeper of the vehicle are obtained from the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA), and he or she is billed. An elderly Wiltshire couple were recently berated by Tesco after taking too long to do their Christmas shopping at the supermarket.

The company that manages McDonald’s car parks, Civil Enforcement, also works with a string of other blue-chip companies.


Pentagon Poised to Resume Open Air Chemical and Biological Weapons Testing

December 12th, 2007

* shaking head * * mumbling *

Via: Scoop:

The Pentagon has denied President Bush issued a directive for it to resume open-air testing of chemical and biological warfare(CBW) agents that were halted by President Richard Nixon in 1969. Yet, the Pentagon’s stated preparations make it appear it is poised to do just that.

Spokesperson Chris Isleib did not respond to a request for comment on a passage from the Defense Department’s annual report sent to Congress last April that suggests the Pentagon is gearing up to resume the tests.

Resumption of open-air testing would reverse a long-standing moratorium adopted after a public outcry against them following accidents in the Sixties.

The Pentagon’s annual report apparently calls for both the developmental and operational “field testing of (CBW) full systems,” not just simulations.

The Pentagon’s report to Congress contains the following passage: “More than thirty years have passed since outdoor live-agent chemical tests were banned in the United States, and the last outdoor test with live chemical agent was performed, so much of the infrastructure for the field testing of chemical detectors no longer exists or is seriously outdated. The currently budgeted improvements in the T&E infrastructure will greatly enhance both the developmental and operational field testing of full systems, with better simulated representation of threats and characterization of system response.” “T&E” is an acronym for testing and evaluation.

“Either the military has resumed open-air testing already or they are preparing to do so,” said Francis Boyle, a University of Illinois Professor of International Law who authored the implementing legislation for the U.S. Biological Weapons Convention signed into law by President George Bush Sr. and who has tracked subsequent developments closely.

“I am stunned by the nature of this development,” Boyle said. “This is a major reversal of policy.” The 1972 treaty against germ warfare, which the U.S. signed, forbids developing weapons that spread disease, such as anthrax, a pathogen that is regarded by the military as “ideal” for conducting germ warfare.

“The Pentagon is fully prepared to launch biological warfare by means of anthrax,” Boyle charged. “All the equipment has been acquired and all the training conducted and most combat-ready members of U.S. armed forces have been given protective equipment and vaccines that allegedly would protect them from that agent.”

Open-air testing takes research into deadly agents out of the laboratories in order to study their effectiveness, including their aerial dispersion patterns, and whether they actually infect and kill in field trials. Since the anthrax attacks on Congress in October, 2001, the Bush administration has funded a vast biological research expansion at hundreds of private and university laboratories in the U.S. and abroad involving anthrax and other deadly pathogens.


Voice to Skull Technology in New York

December 12th, 2007

Via: AdAge:

New Yorker Alison Wilson was walking down Prince Street in SoHo last week when she heard a woman’s voice right in her ear asking, “Who’s there? Who’s there?” She looked around to find no one in her immediate surroundings. Then the voice said, “It’s not your imagination.”

Indeed it isn’t. It’s an ad for “Paranormal State,” a ghost-themed series premiering on A&E this week. The billboard uses technology manufactured by Holosonic that transmits an “audio spotlight” from a rooftop speaker so that the sound is contained within your cranium. The technology, ideal for museums and libraries or environments that require a quiet atmosphere for isolated audio slideshows, has rarely been used on such a scale before. For random passersby and residents who have to walk unwittingly through the area where the voice will penetrate their inner peace, it’s another story.

Ms. Wilson, a New York-based stylist, said she expected the voice inside her head to be some type of creative project but could see how others might perceive it differently, particularly on a late-night stroll home. “I might be a little freaked out, and I wouldn’t necessarily think it’s coming from that billboard,” she said.

Joe Pompei, president and founder of Holosonics, said the creepy approach is key to drawing attention to A&E’s show. But, he noted, the technology was designed to avoid adding to noise pollution. “If you really want to annoy a lot of people, a loudspeaker is the best way to do it,” he said. “If you set up a loudspeaker on the top of a building, everybody’s going to hear that noise. But if you’re only directing that sound to a specific viewer, you’re never going to hear a neighbor complaint from street vendors or pedestrians. The whole idea is to spare other people.”

Holosonics has partnered with a cable network once before, when Court TV implemented the technology to promote its “Mystery Whisperer” in the mystery sections of select bookstores. Mr. Pompei said the company also has tested retail deployments in grocery stores with Procter & Gamble and Kraft for customized audio messaging. So a customer, for example, looking to buy laundry detergent could suddenly hear the sound of gurgling water and thus feel compelled to buy Tide as a result of the sonic experience.

Mr. Pompei contends that the technology will take time for consumers to get used to, much like the lights on digital signage and illuminated billboards did when they were first used. The website Gawker posted an item about the billboard last week with the headline “Schizophrenia is the new ad gimmick,” and asked “How soon will it be until in addition to the do-not-call list, we’ll have a ‘do not beam commercial messages into my head’ list?”

“There’s going to be a certain population sensitive to it. But once people see what it does and hear for themselves, they’ll see it’s effective for getting attention,” Mr. Pompei said.


Several Cryptogon Readers Send Contributions

December 12th, 2007

Thank you all!

AS $75
MS $20
excarsalesman.com $25
DT $20


The Final Frontier for Solar Energy: An Absurd Boondoggle in Space

December 12th, 2007

Scientists in the U.S., Europe and Japan want to build a massive solar concentrator in space to beam gigawatts of power down to the surface of the planet. (The idea has been around, on paper, for years.) Clean, green power, They say.

Absurd?

Maybe not, if we consider some of the cast of characters, and wrap their public rhetoric in a bit of tinfoil.

The Pentagon likes the idea, so that might be the tipoff as to the real interest from the U.S. side in a space based solar array. A system like this could be used as a power source for a variety of space-based weapons. Power is a big problem for weaponized satellites. Sure, They’ll talk up the story about beaming the energy down to the surface of the planet, but think about the death ray applications! They could deploy killer satellites with the usual power systems for communications and orientation etc., but without any power source for the onboard weapon system. During combat/slaughter of innocents, the large solar collector could beam the energy to the smaller killer satellites; which would drive the death rays, rail guns, plasma cannons, etc.

As a power source for terrestrial consumption…

We should ask all the rocket scientists and Dr. Strangeloves—who are involved with this ridiculous project—to do a calculation for us:

How many solar towers/concentrators and wave/tidal power systems could be built for what this space based solar collector would cost?

I don’t know, but it would probably enough to cover the land masses and fill the oceans of a couple of dozen Earths; give or take a few Earths.

While systems such as solar towers and wave power buoys are viable, they lack the sweet, technophilic allure of spacecraft and energy beams. But what is the overall motivation? Far from being a democratic, decentralized clean energy technology, this is just another expensive way of, quite literally, concentrating power—to do work, to kill, to intimidate—into a few hands.

Cui bono?

Actually, just read the BBC article below, and parse it carefully. It might help to drape half a roll of Reynolds Wrap around your skull before continuing:

From the article: Researchers from Europe, Japan and the US are considering the viability of building giant solar panels in a low earth orbit that would supply cheap, inexhaustible energy to industry and homes.

Coincidence: The Trilateral Commission was formed in 1973 by private citizens of Japan, Europe (European Union countries), and North America (United States and Canada) to foster closer cooperation among these core democratic industrialized areas of the world with shared leadership responsibilities in the wider international system.

From the article: It’s an undertaking that has been likened to the building of the Pyramids.

Coincidence: Illuminati Pyramids, What’s that on Senior’s lap?

From the article: For Lt Col Damphousse, despite the technical and economic challenges, the advantages are clear. “It opens up all the other things that we are trying to do in space; our exploration strategy, our planetary defence, commercialism in space, space tourism.”

Coincidence: Our planetary defense!? See: U.S. Department of Defense Shills: Prepare for Alien Invasion

From the article: “If we’re able to do this as an international effort this helps to relieve some of those pressures on resource shortages, overpopulation. This is something that’s in the interest of the entire planet.”

Question: How, exactly, does a space based solar array and directed energy system resolve overpopulation? I’d love to hear the answer to that one. Is it something like what happens when a six-year-old-boy with a magnifying glass finds an ant hill on a sunny day? (I kid, of course.)

From the article: “Once we open up the medium, there’s a whole new world waiting for us out there.”

Coincidence: New World Order

This is obviously just another ingenious carbon neutral technology that’s being thought up from the gentle environmentalists at the Pentagon. Sounds like a perfect project for Al Gore and Colin Powell to get behind. Sure, what could possibly go wrong? Just don’t blame me if it winds up being called the ExxonMobil Clean Green Solar Array and Death Star.

No brilliant ideas out of the Pentagon to solve the top soil depletion issue, though, which makes energy scarcity look like a walk in the park. Maybe that’s where the skyscraper farms come in. (Sarcasm.)

Via: BBC:

Scientists are assessing the possibility of embarking on a space engineering project that would eclipse the effort to construct the International Space Station.

Researchers from Europe, Japan and the US are considering the viability of building giant solar panels in a low earth orbit that would supply cheap, inexhaustible energy to industry and homes.

Building a huge array outside the Earth’s atmosphere would have the advantage of having no clouds to interrupt the flow of solar energy to the arrays.

Yet the sizeable downside would be the technical challenges of construction and of getting the power down to the ground.

It’s an undertaking that has been likened to the building of the Pyramids.


Washington Mutual to Close 190 Offices

December 12th, 2007

Via: San Francisco Chronicle:

Washington Mutual Inc., the nation’s largest savings and loan, said Monday that problems in the mortgage and credit markets are forcing it to close offices, lay off more than 3,000 workers and set aside up to $1.6 billion for loan losses in its fourth quarter.

Additionally, the company slashed its quarterly dividend 73 percent and said it plans a $2.5 billion offering of convertible preferred stock. Washington Mutual has not yet priced the offering, but increasing the total number of company shares will dilute their value for existing stockholders. In after-hours trading, shares fell $1.73, or nearly 9 percent, to $18.15 following the company’s announcement.

Chairman Kerry Killinger said in a statement that “significant expense reductions” were needed “to further fortify” the bank’s capital and liquidity.

The Seattle thrift dismantled much of its subprime mortgage business in September, cutting 1,000 jobs related to the sale of home loans to people with questionable credit. It folded the remaining subprime operations into its regular mortgage business.

The savings and loan will now get out of the subprime mortgage business entirely.

The company said it will close about 190 of its 335 home loan centers and sales offices, shut down nine call centers, and eliminate 2,600 home loan workers and 550 corporate and support jobs.


Gang-Rape Cover-Up by U.S. Government, Halliburton/KBR

December 11th, 2007

Via: ABC News:

A Houston, Texas woman says she was gang-raped by Halliburton/KBR coworkers in Baghdad, and the company and the U.S. government are covering up the incident.

Jamie Leigh Jones, now 22, says that after she was raped by multiple men at a KBR camp in the Green Zone, the company put her under guard in a shipping container with a bed and warned her that if she left Iraq for medical treatment, she’d be out of a job.

“Don’t plan on working back in Iraq. There won’t be a position here, and there won’t be a position in Houston,” Jones says she was told.

In a lawsuit filed in federal court against Halliburton and its then-subsidiary KBR, Jones says she was held in the shipping container for at least 24 hours without food or water by KBR, which posted armed security guards outside her door, who would not let her leave.

“It felt like prison,” says Jones, who told her story to ABC News as part of an upcoming “20/20” investigation. “I was upset; I was curled up in a ball on the bed; I just could not believe what had happened.”

Finally, Jones says, she convinced a sympathetic guard to loan her a cell phone so she could call her father in Texas.

“I said, ‘Dad, I’ve been raped. I don’t know what to do. I’m in this container, and I’m not able to leave,'” she said. Her father called their congressman, Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas.

“We contacted the State Department first,” Poe told ABCNews.com, “and told them of the urgency of rescuing an American citizen” — from her American employer.

Poe says his office contacted the State Department, which quickly dispatched agents from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad to Jones’ camp, where they rescued her from the container.

According to her lawsuit, Jones was raped by “several attackers who first drugged her, then repeatedly raped and injured her, both physically and emotionally.”


Changing Images of Man

December 11th, 2007

If you have ever encountered wild eyed weirdos who talk about re-visioning the future, complete with new religions, etc., whether those people realize it or not, Changing Images of Man appears to be the blueprint for that brand of PSYOP. Unfortunately, I hadn’t heard of Changing Images of Man until 2005. (I wish I’d read it about 15 years earlier.) I felt very lucky to find an original copy in a university library. Now, it’s on the net here, or as smaller, text only version (torrent).

You might read through the book and think, “Gee whiz, this doesn’t sound so bad,” but consider the source. Indeed, I thought that a lot of it sounded pretty familiar, having looked into different ways of thinking about the future. I had no idea that what I was seeing, over and over again, was a rehash of this Stanford Research Institute material.

A lot of times, when you look for ways to think outside the box, you might find that you wind up inside some other box. SRI devised a lot of those other boxes. People who use utopia-speak should actually read Changing Images of Man because they will find that they’re just propagating creepy memes that were devised by a bunch of elitists in the 1960s and 1970s. This is the kinder, gentler management layer: Different words, different facades, more dazzling technology, but it’s the same wizards behind the curtain. The same people who created this crap situation in which the world finds itself.

Now, the story that’s going around the Intertubes today is: The Planned Collapse of America. That’s a decent summary of Changing Images of Man.

But also check out, Scientists on Acid: The Story Behind “Changing Images of Man,” for some great context material on the authors of the of the research.

Research Credit: Idleworm, Information Clearing House, Survival Acres, et al.


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