Moody’s Warns U.S. of Credit Rating Fears
February 4th, 2010Via: Financial Times:
Moody’s Investors Service fired off a warning on Wednesday that the triple A sovereign credit rating of the US would come under pressure unless economic growth was more robust than expected or tougher actions were taken to tackle the country’s budget deficit.
In a move that follows intensifying concern among investors over the US deficit, Moody’s said the country faced a trajectory of debt growth that was “clearly continuously upward”.
Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s, said the deficits projected in the budget outlook presented by the Obama administration outlook this week did not stabilise debt levels in relation to gross domestic product.
“Unless further measures are taken to reduce the budget deficit further or the economy rebounds more vigorously than expected, the federal financial picture as presented in the projections for the next decade will at some point put pressure on the triple A government bond rating,” the rating agency added in an issuer note.
This week, the White House forecast a $1,565bn budget deficit for 2010, which represents 10.6 per cent of gross domestic product and is the highest such ratio of debt to GDP since the second world war.
While the budget gap is forecast to fall to about 4 per cent by 2013, it is based in part on economic growth not falling below government expectations, Congress agreeing to tax rises and a spending freeze on non-security discretionary spending.
Crucially, projections of the overall debt-to-GDP ratio for the US are seen rising from 53 per cent in 2009 to 73 per cent in 2015 and 77 per cent by 2020.
Moody’s, however, says this understates the overall US debt level.
“Using the general government measure, including state and local governments as well as the federal government, which is used internationally, this ratio would be well over 100 per cent in 2020.”
Cryptogon Readers Send Contributions After January Earnings Miss
February 4th, 2010Well done, guys! There are several new contributors here, as well as core supporters who have given far too much already. Thank you very much.
Pookie $75
Ivan $69.23
RM $25
RM $25 (Farmlet)
DS $20
SC $20
DH $15
AT €20
KM £30
KC $40
JR £10
FB $50
MS CA$25
CJ $9.99
CH $10
MR $126.12 !
JF $20
BT $25
CS £20
MW $20
DH $130 !
AS $20
MM $20
RD $15
JF $75
DW $30
RR $100 ! Signed up for a trading account with TradeKing.
Police Want Point and Click Access to Private Email
February 4th, 2010Via: Cnet:
Anyone with an e-mail account likely knows that police can peek inside it if they have a paper search warrant.
But cybercrime investigators are frustrated by the speed of traditional methods of faxing, mailing, or e-mailing companies these documents. They’re pushing for the creation of a national Web interface linking police computers with those of Internet and e-mail providers so requests can be sent and received electronically.
CNET has reviewed a survey scheduled to be released at a federal task force meeting on Thursday, which says that law enforcement agencies are virtually unanimous in calling for such an interface to be created. Eighty-nine percent of police surveyed, it says, want to be able to “exchange legal process requests and responses to legal process” through an encrypted, police-only “nationwide computer network.”
GOOGLE NOW WORKING WITH NSA
February 4th, 2010Via: Washington Post:
The world’s largest Internet search company and the world’s most powerful electronic surveillance organization are teaming up in the name of cybersecurity.
Under an agreement that is still being finalized, the National Security Agency would help Google analyze a major corporate espionage attack that the firm said originated in China and targeted its computer networks, according to cybersecurity experts familiar with the matter. The objective is to better defend Google — and its users — from future attack.
Google and the NSA declined to comment on the partnership. But sources with knowledge of the arrangement, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the alliance is being designed to allow the two organizations to share critical information without violating Google’s policies or laws that protect the privacy of Americans’ online communications. The sources said the deal does not mean the NSA will be viewing users’ searches or e-mail accounts or that Google will be sharing proprietary data.
The partnership strikes at the core of one of the most sensitive issues for the government and private industry in the evolving world of cybersecurity: how to balance privacy and national security interests. On Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair called the Google attacks, which the company acknowledged in January, a “wake-up call.” Cyberspace cannot be protected, he said, without a “collaborative effort that incorporates both the U.S. private sector and our international partners.”
But achieving collaboration is not easy, in part because private companies do not trust the government to keep their secrets and in part because of concerns that collaboration can lead to continuous government monitoring of private communications. Privacy advocates, concerned about a repeat of the NSA’s warrantless interception of Americans’ phone calls and e-mails after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, say information-sharing must be limited and closely overseen.
“The critical question is: At what level will the American public be comfortable with Google sharing information with NSA?” said Ellen McCarthy, president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, an organization of current and former intelligence and national security officials that seeks ways to foster greater sharing of information between government and industry.
On Jan. 12, Google took the rare step of announcing publicly that its systems had been hacked in a series of intrusions beginning in December.
The intrusions, industry experts said, targeted Google source code — the programming language underlying Google applications — and extended to more than 30 other large tech, defense, energy, financial and media companies. The Gmail accounts of human rights activists in Europe, China and the United States were also compromised.
So significant was the attack that Google threatened to shutter its business operation in China if the government did not agree to let the firm operate an uncensored search engine there. That issue is still unresolved.
Google approached the NSA shortly after the attacks, sources said, but the deal is taking weeks to hammer out, reflecting the sensitivity of the partnership. Any agreement would mark the first time that Google has entered a formal information-sharing relationship with the NSA, sources said. In 2008, the firm stated that it had not cooperated with the NSA in its Terrorist Surveillance Program.
Sources familiar with the new initiative said the focus is not figuring out who was behind the recent cyberattacks — doing so is a nearly impossible task after the fact — but building a better defense of Google’s networks, or what its technicians call “information assurance.”
One senior defense official, while not confirming or denying any agreement the NSA might have with any firm, said: “If a company came to the table and asked for help, I would ask them . . . ‘What do you know about what transpired in your system? What deficiencies do you think they took advantage of? Tell me a little bit about what it was they did.’ ” Sources said the NSA is reaching out to other government agencies that play key roles in the U.S. effort to defend cyberspace and might be able to help in the Google investigation.
These agencies include the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security.
Over the past decade, other Silicon Valley companies have quietly turned to the NSA for guidance in protecting their networks.
“As a general matter,” NSA spokeswoman Judi Emmel said, “as part of its information-assurance mission, NSA works with a broad range of commercial partners and research associates to ensure the availability of secure tailored solutions for Department of Defense and national security systems customers.”
Despite such precedent, Matthew Aid, an expert on the NSA, said Google’s global reach makes it unique.
“When you rise to the level of Google . . . you’re looking at a company that has taken great pride in its independence,” said Aid, author of “The Secret Sentry,” a history of the NSA. “I’m a little uncomfortable with Google cooperating this closely with the nation’s largest intelligence agency, even if it’s strictly for defensive purposes.”
The pact would be aimed at allowing the NSA help Google understand whether it is putting in place the right defenses by evaluating vulnerabilities in hardware and software and to calibrate how sophisticated the adversary is. The agency’s expertise is based in part on its analysis of cyber-“signatures” that have been documented in previous attacks and can be used to block future intrusions.
The NSA would also be able to help the firm understand what methods are being used to penetrate its system, the sources said. Google, for its part, may share information on the types of malicious code seen in the attacks — without disclosing proprietary data about what was taken, which would concern shareholders, sources said.
Greg Nojeim, senior counsel for the Center for Democracy & Technology, a privacy advocacy group, said companies have statutory authority to share information with the government to protect their rights and property.
The Dollar: I Don’t Try to Divine Much Meaning From the Squiggly Wigglies
February 4th, 2010Short to medium outlook dollar bears and gold bulls: Stay the course as long as the downtrending channel on the USDX remains intact. Keep in mind, however, that a move up and out of the downtrending channel on the USDX above could mean substantial pain in the weeks and months ahead for dollar bears and gold bulls.
…
I’m in the process of accumulating U.S. Dollars to balance out my positions in anticipation of a dollar rally.
J writes re: The U.S. Dollar:
Kevin,
You called the dollar move. I didn’t believe it then. I don’t believe it now even as it’s going up and up. But why? How? What is driving this?
I wrote back:
J,
I don’t try to divine much meaning from the squiggly wigglies, except up or down. I’m not an economist, witch doctor or someone who pretends to know much about this stuff, in terms of the alleged fundamentals. If we were going by fundamentals, knowable to relatively informed people like you and me, this horror show probably should have collapsed decades ago. That’s why I trade with nothing but the woowoo. Think of correct calls as good luck, chance, calling heads and seeing the bust of Washington after the toss (or, in my case, the f*&^%$# Queen of England.) When it comes to computer generated numbers that update in real time, I gave up on asking ‘why’ a long time ago.
Kevin
More: Gold: Down $46, Quasi Shooting Star for the Week
U.S. Doing ‘Scientific Research’ to Boost Interrogations
February 4th, 2010Via: AFP:
An elite US interrogation unit will conduct “scientific research” to find better ways of questioning top suspected terrorists, US intelligence director Dennis Blair said Wednesday.
“It is going to do scientific research on that long-neglected area,” Blair told the House Intelligence Committee, without elaborating on the nature of the techniques being tested.
A spokesman for Blair, Ross Feinstein, also declined to detail “specific research projects” but stressed that any such projects would follow US law, which forbids torture, and abide by internal review safeguards.
Blair said the task would fall to an interagency group of top US interrogators from across the intelligence community dubbed the High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group (HIG).
“We’ve given it the responsibility of doing the scientific research to determine if there are better ways to get information from people that are consistent with our values,” he said.
Blair said the HIG charter required it to abide by the US Army Field Manual, which forbids abusive interrogation techniques.
US interrogation tactics in the global war on terrorism have drawn heavy scrutiny in the United States and overseas because of the past use of techniques like waterboarding that meet international definitions of torture.
Obama formally abolished such methods shortly after taking office, drawing fire from former vice president Dick Cheney, who described them as critical to thwarting terrorist attacks in the wake of the September 11, 2001 strikes.
Asked to detail the research, Feinstein replied: “We are not going to discuss specific research projects, but Intelligence Community-sponsored research is performed in accordance with the law and institutional review board processes.”
Bernanke Says Federal Reserve Faces ‘Enormous Challenges’
February 4th, 2010Slather on an extra layer of warpaint on Maria Bartiromo and let’s hear more about the jobless recovery and the green shoots.
Via: Bloomberg:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told his staff today that the U.S. central bank faces “enormous challenges” as he was sworn in for a second four- year term.
“This institution, like our country, faces enormous challenges,” including the need to increase transparency and protect the central bank’s independence, the Fed chairman said, according to the text of his remarks released by the Fed.
The 56-year-old former Princeton University professor was confirmed last month by a Senate vote of 70 to 30, the most opposition to a Fed chief since the chamber started confirming in 1978.
And Now: Unemployment Data Worse Than Previously Stated
February 4th, 2010I’m sure everyone is shocked. * duh * * drool *
Via: Bloomberg:
The U.S. may lose 824,000 jobs when the government releases its annual revision to employment data on Feb. 5, showing the labor market was in worse shape during the recession than known at the time.


