17.5%: A More Realistic Government Unemployment Rate
November 24th, 2009Via: CNBC:
As experts debate the potential speed of the US recovery, one figure looms large but is often overlooked: nearly 1 in 5 Americans is either out of work or under-employed.
According to the government’s broadest measure of unemployment, some 17.5 percent are either without a job entirely or underemployed. The so-called U-6 number is at the highest rate since becoming an official labor statistic in 1994.
The number dwarfs the statistic most people pay attention to—the U-3 rate—which most recently showed unemployment at 10.2 percent for October, the highest it has been since June 1983.
The difference is that what is traditionally referred to as the “unemployment rate” only measures those out of work who are still looking for jobs. Discouraged workers who have quit trying to find a job, as well as those working part-time but looking for full-time work or who are otherwise underemployed, count in the U-6 rate.
Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government
November 23rd, 2009This is the New York Times. Yes. The New York Times.
I like the U.S.-as-liar-loan-home-buyer theme:
“The government is on teaser rates,” said Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonpartisan group that advocates lower deficits. “We’re taking out a huge mortgage right now, but we won’t feel the pain until later.”
Via: New York Times:
The United States government is financing its more than trillion-dollar-a-year borrowing with i.o.u.’s on terms that seem too good to be true.
But that happy situation, aided by ultralow interest rates, may not last much longer.
Treasury officials now face a trifecta of headaches: a mountain of new debt, a balloon of short-term borrowings that come due in the months ahead, and interest rates that are sure to climb back to normal as soon as the Federal Reserve decides that the emergency has passed.
Even as Treasury officials are racing to lock in today’s low rates by exchanging short-term borrowings for long-term bonds, the government faces a payment shock similar to those that sent legions of overstretched homeowners into default on their mortgages.
With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.
In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The potential for rapidly escalating interest payouts is just one of the wrenching challenges facing the United States after decades of living beyond its means.
The surge in borrowing over the last year or two is widely judged to have been a necessary response to the financial crisis and the deep recession, and there is still a raging debate over how aggressively to bring down deficits over the next few years. But there is little doubt that the United States’ long-term budget crisis is becoming too big to postpone.
Americans now have to climb out of two deep holes: as debt-loaded consumers, whose personal wealth sank along with housing and stock prices; and as taxpayers, whose government debt has almost doubled in the last two years alone, just as costs tied to benefits for retiring baby boomers are set to explode.
The competing demands could deepen political battles over the size and role of the government, the trade-offs between taxes and spending, the choices between helping older generations versus younger ones, and the bottom-line questions about who should ultimately shoulder the burden.
“The government is on teaser rates,” said Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonpartisan group that advocates lower deficits. “We’re taking out a huge mortgage right now, but we won’t feel the pain until later.”
So far, the demand for Treasury securities from investors and other governments around the world has remained strong enough to hold down the interest rates that the United States must offer to sell them. Indeed, the government paid less interest on its debt this year than in 2008, even though it added almost $2 trillion in debt.
The government’s average interest rate on new borrowing last year fell below 1 percent. For short-term i.o.u.’s like one-month Treasury bills, its average rate was only sixteen-hundredths of a percent.
“All of the auction results have been solid,” said Matthew Rutherford, the Treasury’s deputy assistant secretary in charge of finance operations. “Investor demand has been very broad, and it’s been increasing in the last couple of years.”
The problem, many analysts say, is that record government deficits have arrived just as the long-feared explosion begins in spending on benefits under Medicare and Social Security. The nation’s oldest baby boomers are approaching 65, setting off what experts have warned for years will be a fiscal nightmare for the government.
“What a good country or a good squirrel should be doing is stashing away nuts for the winter,” said William H. Gross, managing director of the Pimco Group, the giant bond-management firm. “The United States is not only not saving nuts, it’s eating the ones left over from the last winter.”
Terrorism That’s Personal
November 23rd, 2009Very graphic, disturbing and tragic images.
Via: tampabay.com:
We typically think of terrorism as a political act.
But sometimes it’s very personal. It wasn’t a government or a guerrilla insurgency that threw acid on this woman’s face in Pakistan. It was a young man whom she had rejected for marriage. As the United States ponders what to do in Afghanistan — and for that matter, in Pakistan — it is wise to understand both the political and the personal, that the very ignorance and illiteracy and misogyny that create the climate for these acid attacks can and does bleed over into the political realm. Nicholas Kristof, the New York Times op-ed columnist who traveled to Pakistan last year to write about acid attacks, put it this way in an essay at the time: “I’ve been investigating such acid attacks, which are commonly used to terrorize and subjugate women and girls in a swath of Asia from Afghanistan through Cambodia (men are almost never attacked with acid). Because women usually don’t matter in this part of the world, their attackers are rarely prosecuted and acid sales are usually not controlled. It’s a kind of terrorism that becomes accepted as part of the background noise in the region…
Hedge Fund Manager Who Made Billions on Real Estate Collapse Now Betting on Gold
November 23rd, 2009Via: Telegraph:
Hedge fund manager John Paulson plans to invest as much as $250m (£149m) of his $6bn personal fortune in a new gold fund he is in the process of establishing.
Mr Paulson, best known for making $3.7bn from bets on the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market, is believed to have told investors that the new fund, to be run by Paulson & Co, will invest not just in gold miners but also in other investments related to the precious metal.
Although not Paulson & Co’s first foray into gold, given approximately 10pc of the $30bn it has under management is in gold-related investments, it would be the firm’s first pure-play gold fund.
No fund-raising cap is thought to have been set at the moment, but Mr Paulson’s personal commitment is considerable and is likely to be seen as a highly attractive draw by investors.
Still No Justice for Priests in Notorious El Salvador Massacre 20 Years Later
November 23rd, 2009Via: Alternet:
In 1989, six Jesuit priests, their housekeeper and her daughter, were brutally murdered in El Salvador. Two decades later, the extent of U.S. complicity remains largely unspoken.
Several Cryptogon Readers Sign Up for Hosting with BlueHost
November 23rd, 2009Thanks to the owners of the following domains for signing up for hosting with BlueHost:
Cryptogon received $450.
Air Force Zaps Drones in Laser Test
November 23rd, 2009Via: Wired:
In a recent series of tests at the Naval Air Warfare Center, China Lake, Calif., a trailer-mounted laser was able to knock five unmanned aircraft out of the sky.
The demo, sponsored by the Air Force Research Laboratory, was a test of the Mobile Active Targeting Resource for Integrated eXperiments (MATRIX), an experimental system developed by Boeing Directed Energy Systems. According to a company news release, the test showed the ability to take down a hostile unmanned aircraft with a “relatively low laser power” weapon. According to AFRL, MATRIX uses a two and a half kilowatt-class high energy laser.
While ballistic missile defense may get all of the press, some homeland-security experts worry about a more low-tech threat: drone technology. Bill Baker, chief scientist of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Directed Energy Directorate, said in a statement that the shootdowns “validate the use of directed energy to negate potential hostile threats against the homeland.”
It’s not clear, exactly, how the lasers shot down the drones: Whether they disrupted the aircraft controls, or burned a big hole in them. (An AFRL news release said the drones were “acquired, tracked and negated at significant ranges” but offered few additional details.)
As part of the counter-drone tests, Boeing also shot down an unmanned aircraft with its Laser Avenger system, a Humvee-mounted directed-energy air defense system the company is developing. They also test-fired a lightweight 25mm machine gun integrated on the Laser Avenger platform (the machine gun fired at a static target board, not a drone). The idea behind this is to use good ol’ kinetic energy — i.e., a stream of hot lead — as a backup if the directed energy system fails to down the target.
Boeing has been developing a range of directed-energy weapons for the military, including the Airborne Laser (a Boeing 747 reconfigured as a ballistic-missile shooter), the Advanced Tactical Laser (a laser gunship), and the High Energy Laser Technology Demonstrator (a mobile laser cannon that can shoot down rockets and mortars).
Marines Use Brain Scans to Spot PTSD Triggers Before and During War
November 23rd, 2009In other words, the military is using the war as a giant MK screening lab.
Via: Wired:
Two days before shipping off to war, Marine Pfc. Jesse Sheets sat inside a trailer in the Mojave Desert, his gaze fixed on a computer that flashed a rhythmic pulse of contrasting images.
Smiling kids embracing a soldier. A dog sniffing blood oozing from a corpse. Movie star Cameron Diaz posing sideways in a midriff top. Troops cowering for safety during an ambush. (See pictures of movie costumes.)
A doctor tracked his stress levels and counted the number of times he blinked. Electrode wires dangled from his left eye and right pinky finger.
Sheets is part of a military experiment to try to predict who’s most at risk for post-traumatic stress disorder. Understanding underlying triggers might help reduce the burden of those who return psychologically wounded — if they can get early help.
Transsexual Linked to Italy’s Sex Scandal ‘Found Dead’
November 23rd, 2009Via: Guardian:
A Brazilian transsexual named in a sex scandal involving a former Italian politician is believed to have been killed in a fire in her Rome flat.
The media said a bottle of whisky was found near the body of the woman, known as Brenda. There is no confirmation.
She was linked to the case of Lazio Governor Piero Marrazzo, who quit last month after a video emerged apparently showing him with a transsexual.
Brenda had denied having any relationship with the former governor.
On Friday, police said that forensic tests were expected to formally identify the remains found in Brenda’s basement flat.
Depressed
It was not immediately known if there were any signs of foul play.
Earlier this month, Brenda called police to report that she had been attacked and robbed in the street.
Brenda’s friends have also said that she recently told them she felt depressed and suicidal.
Brenda and another Brazilian transsexual, known as Natalie, were involved in the scandal that led to Mr Marrazzo’s resignation.
He was allegedly blackmailed by four Italian policemen, who had reportedly shot the compromising video. All four have since been arrested.
Mr Marrazzo has admitted having encounters with transsexual prostitutes.
His lawyer, Luca Petrucci, said the “affair is taking a tragic and worrying turn”, Italy’s Ansa news agency reports.
The lawyer also called for police protection for Natalie.
Forced Labor and Rape, the New Face of Slavery in America
November 23rd, 2009I don’t know about the “new” part, but so it goes.
Via: Guardian:
In the Midwestern heartland, police are encountering a new social evil: trafficking, often involving women and children who are forced to work as prostitutes or unpaid labour; and the outcomes can be brutal.
Human trafficking has become a major issue in the Midwest heartland of America, causing some campaigners to dub it a modern form of slavery.
Figures from the State Department reveal that 17,500 people are trafficked into the US every year against their will or under false pretences, mainly to be used for sex or forced labour. Experts believe that, when cases of internal trafficking are added, the total number of victims could be up to five times larger. And increasing numbers of trafficked individuals are being transported thousands of miles from America’s coasts and into heartland states such as Ohio and Michigan.
“It is not only a crime. It is an abomination,” said Professor Mark Ensalaco, a political scientist at the University of Dayton, Ohio, who organised a recent conference on the issue. In Ohio a human trafficking commission has just been set up to study the problem, while in the northern Ohio city of Toledo a special FBI task force is tackling the issue. For many local law enforcement officials, it is a bewildering new world.
Research Credit: ltcolonelnemo


