GDP Splat: How ‘Bout That Dollar?

July 31st, 2009

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

Wee!

I already wrote the main commentary to the upcoming phase of the game back here: Dollar Finally Breaking Down

77.688 is the last chance support on the USDX anywhere around these levels. The next stop is likely the 71-72 zone. They’ll almost certainly try to shoot some spit balls at it around 77.688 to try to get a rally going. Good luck with that.

Via: Market Ticker:

It appears to be that traders in the FX market … have deduced that the entire “improvement” in 2Q GDP came from government spending.

Well that’s not hard to figure out – it did.

They also appear to be making a bet that the US Government will attempt to continue this, along with The Fed monetizing the debt through its buyback programs to destruction of both the government and currency.

This is not positive for our economy. At all.

But this is the meme today – traders are piling into bonds expecting more Fed buybacks, they are shorting dollars like crazy, and Gold is of course reacting to these two facts.

This is a “collapse of government due to spending into bankruptcy” play folks, or at minimum “currency crisis around the corner.”

Right or wrong this is the trade being put on in size; the dollar selling in particular is especially pernicious and troublesome – that chart is essentially straight down since the GDP release this morning.

Research Credit: Andres


Tamiflu Causes Sickness and Nightmares in Children

July 31st, 2009

Via: Times Online:

More than half of children taking the swine flu drug Tamiflu experience side-effects such as nausea and nightmares, research suggests.

An estimated 150,000 people with flu symptoms were prescribed the drug through a new hotline and website last week, according to figures revealed yesterday.

Studies of children attending three schools in London and one in the South West showed that 51-53 per cent had one or more side-effects from the medication, which is offered to everyone in England with swine flu symptoms.

The research by the Health Protection Agency emerged as Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer for England, said that swine flu infections “may have reached a plateau”.


Weak Treasury Auctions Raise Worries About US Debt Burden

July 30th, 2009

Via: CNBC / Reuters:

The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion in five-year debt Wednesday in an auction that drew poor demand, raising worries over the cost of financing the government’s burgeoning budget deficit.

It was the second lackluster showing in as many days, convincing analysts that the stellar results of debt auctions just a few weeks ago were a fluke and that Thursday’s $28 billion seven-year offering could suffer a similar fate.

Under the weight of the ballooning deficit, the government has raised auction volumes and analysts now wonder whether the strain on the market is showing.

“Obviously everyone is inferring that tomorrow’s won’t be good either,” said James Combias, head of government bond trading at Mizuho Securities USA in New York. “Maybe you will see more interest tomorrow but I think the increase in the auctions and the size of them may be starting to have an effect. These are very large auctions.”

Demand for the five-year notes was below average, measured by the bid-to-cover ratio of 1.92, the lowest in almost a year.

This followed a poor two-year auction on Tuesday. In a further sign of a weak sale, yields at the auction were well above expectations, known as a “tail.”

A key proxy for foreign interest, the indirect bidder category, was slightly above the average of auctions over the past year at 36.6 percent but far below the most recent sale.

“It was just a horrendous result,” said William O’Donnell, head of U.S. Treasury strategy at RBS Securities in Greenwich, Connecticut.

“It was the weakest bid-to-cover since September 2008, and by my numbers it was the biggest tail since February 1993. It was just a very, very weak result.”

The tail indicates that dealers drove an unexpectedly hard bargain to raise yields, and lower prices, to buy the bonds. Ultimately, this could raise interest rates throughout the economy at a faster rate than might be appropriate given the lingering effects of the worst recession in decades.

“If rates unwind higher and too quickly — driven not by the Fed but by the old bond vigilantes — that will be the house of pain for all risk markets,” said George Goncalves, head of fixed income rates strategy with Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

…

The government plans to issue $2 trillion in new bonds this year to finance economic and financial rescues.

Treasury auctions have come under particularly close scrutiny since investors began to question the longevity of the United States’ prized AAA credit rating back in May.

Overseas central banks, particularly in Asia, have been huge buyers of U.S. debt in recent years and own more than a quarter of marketable Treasuries. China is the biggest such buyer.


Florida: 32 Story Luxury Condo Complex with Only One Unit Occupied

July 30th, 2009

Surreal.

Via: News Press:

Victor Vangelakos lives in a luxury condominium tower on the Caloosahatchee River. He never has to worry about the neighbors making too much noise.
There are no neighbors.

Vangelakos, 45, his wife Cathy and their three children are the only residents in the 32-story Oasis I condo on the east edge of downtown Fort Myers.

The 45-year-old Weehawken, N.J., firefighter bought the condo from Miami-based The Related Group for $430,000 and closed on it in November. He planned to make it a vacation getaway and eventually his full-time residence when he retires in four years.

But prices have fallen hard since the real estate bubble burst in early 2006. Only a handful of those who put down deposits on the tower’s units actually closed on the deal. Those who did have swapped their Oasis I units for condos in Oasis II next door.

Vangelakos didn’t, because he was unable to convince his lender to agree to the swap, said Betsy Lu McCoy, vice president and associate corporate counsel for Related.

That leaves the Vangelakos family splitting their time between New Jersey and a creepy, surreal life in Oasis I.

They’re the only ones using a well-appointed clubhouse, but they can’t watch the big plasma TV.

“We haven’t found the remote controls,” Victor said.

Pause for a moment anywhere in the building during the day and the silence is deafening.

At night, Vangelakos said, they often hear people on the grounds or even inside the building itself. It’s not hard to break in one of the many entrances.

Once, late at night, “Somebody banged on our door,” Vanelakos said.

It wouldn’t have been hard to find the person in the otherwise darkened building.
“At night,” he said, “you can see our TV from the street.”

Especially popular for intruders is the swimming pool, Vangelakos said. They heard people there one night “and the next day all our chairs were in the pool.”


Hyperinflation: Fed Walks the Tightrope

July 30th, 2009

Great followup to: Kucinich: The Federal Reserve Is Paying Banks NOT to Make Loans.

Via: Reuters:

The sound money set remains concerned that the Federal Reserve’s emergency actions to corral collapse could ignite hyperinflation. In particular, they point to the explosion of excess reserves inside the banking system, which they call dry tinder just waiting for the spark of recovery. Bill Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, says this isn’t an issue because the Fed now pays interest on excess reserves. It’s a good argument, but only in the short run.

To liquefy the banking system, the Fed drastically expanded its balance sheet, which, as you can see in the chart to the right, has led to an explosion of excess reserves at banks.

For decades they never rose above $10 billion. Now they’re above $700 billion. To understand why this level of excess reserves has some worried about hyperinflation, it helps to understand what they are.

The Fed requires banks to keep a certain level of assets in reserve against deposits, either cash in the vault or reserves held at the Fed. Reserves held over this required amount are referred to as “excess” reserves which banks are free to lend out.

When banks lend money into the economy, the money borrowed typically ends up as a deposit in another bank. Say I borrow to buy a house; the mortgage I get from the bank is money I give to the seller, who then deposits the cash in his own bank.

Lent money turns into a new deposit, which turns into more lent money, which turns into another deposit, and so on. As the supply of money multiplies, you get inflation. If it multiplies too quickly, you get hyperinflation. The multiplication of money that might come from banks lending out over $700 billion of excess reserves is the stuff of inflationary nightmares.

But banks aren’t lending it out. Why not? As Dudley points out in his speech, it’s because the Fed is now paying them an interest rate.

Before last October, banks lent out all their excess reserves. After all, excess cash in the vault earns the bank no profit. But then Congress gave Ben Bernanke the power to pay interest on excess reserves, which means banks now can earn a return by keeping them on deposit at the Fed. Money that could be lent isn’t, inflation remains a potential threat, not a kinetic one.

But there’s a catch. When the economy recovers banks won’t any longer want to keep their excess reserves on deposit at the Fed, not unless the Fed is willing to pay a much higher interest rate.

Walker Todd of the American Institute of Economic Research argues that “the economy won’t be able to handle the high interest rates the Fed will be forced to charge in order to keep excess reserves immobilized in its vault.”

The Fed argues it has other tools to shrink its balance sheet when the time is right. For one, its emergency lending facilities are priced high enough such that banks will stop drawing on them when the economy recovers. But even after its lending facilities are wound down the Fed acknowledges the level of excess reserves will still be huge. To keep them immobilized will require substantially higher rates.

But raising rates will cause asset prices to plummet. Weak balance sheets will collapse and the financial crisis could return in full force. This is the conundrum the Fed faces.


UK’s (Voluntary for Now) National ID Card Unveiled

July 30th, 2009

Via: BBC:

Home Secretary Alan Johnson has unveiled the final design of the controversial national identity card.

The card will be offered to members of the public in the Greater Manchester area from the end of this year.

Ministers plan to launch the £30 biometric ID card nationwide in 2011 or 2012 – but it will not be compulsory.

Opposition spokesmen said it was a “colossal waste of money” and civil liberty groups said it was “as costly to our pockets as to our privacy”.

Ministers say the card, which follows the launch of the foreign national ID card, will provide an easy way of safely proving identity.

They say this system, backed up by a national identity register, will help combat identity fraud, crime and terrorism.

The card is very similar in look to a UK driving licence but holds more data, including two fingerprints and a photograph encoded on a chip.

This chip and its unique number in turn links the card to a national identity register which, under current legislation, could hold more information about the identity of the individual.


India to Control Population Growth by Giving People Television (Not The Onion)

July 30th, 2009

Via: Times Online:

India intends to harness the passion-killing properties of late-night television to help to control a potentially catastrophic population explosion.

Ghulam Nabi Azad, the Health and Family Welfare Minister, has called for the country to redouble its efforts to bring electricity to all of its huge rural population.

The introduction of the electric light and television sets to those vast areas that still did not have them would discourage procreation, he argued.

“If there is electricity in every village, then people will watch TV till late at night and then fall asleep. They won’t get a chance to produce children,” Mr Azad said. “When there is no electricity there is nothing else to do but produce babies.”

He added: “Don’t think that I am saying this in a lighter vein. I am serious. TV will have a great impact. It’s a great medium to tackle the problem . . . 80 per cent of population growth can be reduced through TV.”


Obama’s Emergency Escape Plan Leaked Online

July 30th, 2009

Via: News AU:

SENSITIVE documents including plans for the emergency evacuation of US President Barack Obama and motorcade routes have been leaked on a file-sharing network, authorities say.

Chairman of the US House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Edolphus Towns said the documents had been discovered with file-sharing program LimeWire.

Other sensitive documents found with the peer-to-peer program included FBI files, medical records and social security numbers.

Mr Town used evidence of the leaks to argue for the regulation of file-sharing programs.

“As far as I am concerned, the days of self-regulation should be over for the file-sharing industry,” Mr Towns said.

“In the last administration, the Federal Trade Commission took a see-no-evil, hear-no-evil approach to the file sharing software industry.

“I hope the new administration is revisiting that approach.”

Mr Towns, a New York Democrat, said he planned to introduce legislation that would ban unsecure peer-to-peer software from all government and contractor computers and networks.

He also planned the request Federal Trade Commission investigate whether inadequate safeguards on file-sharing software like LimeWire constituted an unfair trade practice.

LimeWire founder and chairman Mark Gorton defended his company, saying any inadvertent sharing had been fixed in the newest version of the software and steps had been taken to put the user more in control.

“Are we perfect? No, (but) we have made enormous strides in the last few years,” he told the committee.

“In order for a LimeWire user to change their default settings to enable document sharing, they have to click nine times and disregard three warnings.”

Evidence of the leaked documents was given to the committee by online security and intelligence company Tiversa.

…

Peer-to-peer, or P2P, is a type of network in which files are stored on many computers at once rather than one central server. It is used by most current file-sharing programs.

This is not the first time Tiversa has revealed sensitive documents found on file-sharing networks.

In March the company found classified information about Marine One, the helicopter used to transport Mr Obama, Computerworld reported.


CIA “Ghost Plane” Flight Plans Will Be Made Public

July 29th, 2009

Via: Guardian:

Confidential documents showing the flight plans of a CIA “ghost plane” allegedly used to transfer a British resident to secret interrogation sites around the world are to be made public. The move comes after a Sussex-based company accused of involvement in extraordinary rendition dropped its opposition to a case against it being heard in court.

Lawyers bringing the case against Jeppesen UK on behalf of the former Guantánamo Bay detainee, Binyam Mohamed, claimed last night the climbdown had wide-ranging legal implications that could help expose which countries and governments knew the CIA was using their air bases to spirit terrorist suspects around the world.

Jeppesen UK, a division of the Jeppesen Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Boeing, is alleged to have provided a range of services that allowed planes owned by shell companies operating on behalf of the CIA to fly suspected terrorists to “black sites”.

Jeppesen is alleged to have provided flight planning services, secured permits for travel, arranged fuel provision and filed flight plans for the clients in the knowledge that the planes were being used for extraordinary rendition.


Martial Law and the Militarization of Public Health: The Worldwide H1N1 Flu Vaccination Program

July 29th, 2009

Via: Global Research:

If Martial Law were to be adopted in the context of a Public Health Emergency, what we would be dealing with is the “forced vaccination” of targeted population groups as well as the possible establishment of facilities for the internment of people who have been quarantined.

In this regard, it is worth noting that in January 2009, a piece of legislation entitled the National Emergency Centers Establishment Act (HR 645) was introduced in the US Congress.The bill calls for the establishment of six national emergency centers in major regions in the US to be located on existing military installations, which could be used to quarantine people in the case of a public health emergency or forced vaccination program.

The bill goes far beyond previous legislation (including H.R 5122). The stated purpose of the “national emergency centers” is to provide “temporary housing, medical, and humanitarian assistance to individuals and families dislocated due to an emergency or major disaster.” In actuality, what we are dealing with are FEMA internment camps. HR 645 states that the camps can be used to “meet other appropriate needs, as determined by the Secretary of Homeland Security.” (Michel Chossudovsky, Preparing for Civil Unrest in America Legislation to Establish Internment Camps on US Military Bases, Global Research, March 2009)

There has been virtually no press coverage of HR 645, which is currently being discussed by several congressional committees. There are no indications that the bill is on its way to being adopted.

These “civilian facilities” on US military bases are to be established in cooperation with the US Military.

Once a person is arrested and interned in a FEMA camp located on a military base, that person would in all likelihood, under a public health emergency, fall under the de facto jurisdiction of the Military: civilian justice and law enforcement including habeas corpus would no longer apply.

HR 645 could be used, were it to be adopted, in the case of public health emergency. It obviously bears a direct relationship to the economic crisis and the likelihood of mass protests across America. It constitutes a further move to militarize civilian law enforcement, repealing the Posse Comitatus Act.

In the words of Rep. Ron Paul:

“…the fusion centers, militarized police, surveillance cameras and a domestic military command is not enough… Even though we know that detention facilities are already in place, they now want to legalize the construction of FEMA camps on military installations using the ever popular excuse that the facilities are for the purposes of a national emergency. With the phony debt-based economy getting worse and worse by the day, the possibility of civil unrest is becoming a greater threat to the establishment. One need only look at Iceland, Greece and other nations for what might happen in the United States next.” (Daily Paul, September 2008, emphasis added)

The proposed internment camps should be seen in relation to the broader process of militarization of civilian institutions. The construction of internment camps predates the introduction of HR 645 (Establishment of Emergency Centers) in January 2009.


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