New Record: 10 Percent of U.S. Home Loans At Least One Month Late in Payments or in Foreclosure

December 5th, 2008

Via: AP:

A record one in 10 American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September as the source of housing market pressure shifted to the crumbling U.S. economy.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday the percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 9.2 percent in the April-June quarter, and up from 7.3 percent a year earlier.

Distress in the home loan market started about two years ago as increasing numbers of adjustable-rate loans reset to higher interest rates. But the latest wave of delinquencies is coming from the surge in unemployment.

Employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, the Labor Department said Friday.

“Now it’s a case of job losses hitting more across the board,” Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The U.S. tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this week. Since the start of the recession, the economy has lost 1.9 million jobs.

Job losses are already having an impact in rising delinquency rates for traditional 30-year fixed rate loans made to borrowers with strong credit. Total delinquencies on those loans rose to 3.35 percent in September from 3.07 percent at the end of June, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

There were some modest signs of stabilization. The number of loans that entered the foreclosure process totaled 1.07 percent of all loans in the third quarter, flat from the second quarter.

Though that number likely reflects changes in state laws that delay or extend the foreclosure process and efforts to work out or modify loans that could still fall back into foreclosure.


Employers Cut 533K Jobs in November, Most in 34 Years

December 5th, 2008

Via: AP:

Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays.

As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

Job losses were widespread, hitting factories, construction companies, financial firms, retailers, leisure and hospitality, and others industries. The few places where gains were logged included the government, education and health services.

The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment rate, however, wasn’t as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture was dismal.

The job reductions were the most since a whopping 602,000 positions were slashed in December 1974, when the country was in a severe recession.

Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse. Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated. Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of 240,000.

Employers are slashing costs to the bone as they try to cope with sagging appetites from customers in the U.S. and in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles.

The carnage — including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s — is hitting a wide range of companies.

In recent days, household names like AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase & Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced layoffs.

Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. will return Friday to Capitol Hill to again ask lawmakers for as much as $34 billion in emergency aid.


UK: House Prices Fall at Fastest Pace in 25 Years

December 5th, 2008

Via: Times:

British house prices tumbled at a record 16.1 per cent in November, marking the sharpest drop in property values for a quarter of a century.

Figures released this morning by Halifax revealed that prices fell 2.6 per cent in November compared with October, and are 16.1 per cent lower than in November 2007.

The year-on-year decline is deeper than falls recorded during the last recession in the early 1990s, and is the biggest drop since 1983.

The shock fall emerged just hours before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Commitee (MPC) cut the interest rate again by 1 per cent to 2 per cent, after last month reducing borrowing costs by 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent.

The reduction is likely to be accompanied by a rate cut by the European Central Bank, which is predicted to fall by 50 basis points in the 15-nation eurozone.


California May Pay With IOUs for Second Time Since Depression

December 5th, 2008

Via: Bloomberg:

California, the world’s eighth largest economy, may pay vendors with IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression, State Finance Director Mike Genest said.

In a letter to legislative leaders Dec. 2, Genest said the state “will begin delaying payments or paying in registered warrants in March” unless an $11.2 billion deficit is closed or reduced. California, which approved its budget less than three months ago, may run out of cash by March, state officials say.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger warned that he may issue the warrants, which are a promise to pay with interest, to suppliers and contractors as the seizure in credit markets may make it too costly to borrow.

“It’s getting worse very quickly,” Schwarzenegger, a 61- year-old Republican, told reporters Dec. 1 after declaring a fiscal emergency and ordering the Legislature into a special session to find ways to close the deficit. “It’s like an avalanche in that it gains momentum. And that’s what we’re in right now, so it’s a real crisis.”

California is reeling more than any other state from budget woes that pushed the nation’s governors to seek help from Congress. States say federal money is needed to ease the pain from spending cuts and tax increases that would be a further blow to an economy in the throes of a recession.

The warrants would be given to landscapers, carpet cleaners, construction firms, food services companies and other state vendors. They would pay an interest rate of as much as 5 percent, based on state law. California last issued the IOUs in 1992 when lawmakers and then-Governor Pete Wilson deadlocked on a budget for 61 days past the start of the fiscal year.


Julius Baer CEO: Suicide

December 5th, 2008

Oh sure.

See the Wikileaks data on Julius Baer.

Via: Reuters:

Alex Widmer, the chief executive of Bank Julius Baer and a well respected figure in Swiss private banking, has died unexpectedly at the age of 52, the bank said.

A source told Reuters he had been informed by close friends of Widmer’s family that the banker had committed suicide.

Swiss news website 20Minuten cited two unnamed independent sources as saying it was a case of suicide.

Swiss police declined to comment on the death.

Julius Baer, Switzerland’s biggest dedicated wealth manager which has roots dating back to the 19th century, is based in Zurich and manages more than 360 billion Swiss francs ($300.8 billion) in assets for rich individuals and institutions.

A spokesman said there was no link between Widmer’s death and the group’s current activities, but declined to give further details on the cause of Widmer’s death overnight on Wednesday, saying it was a private matter.

The Swiss news agency SDA said Widmer’s wife died from cancer in 2005.

A second source said employees at the bank had been told Widmer had died from an unspecified illness. Widmer had three children.

“Alex Widmer was the very epitome of a Swiss private banker,” Julius Baer said in a statement.

“It is a great shame,” added a Zurich-based trader. “It is very sad. He embodied Julius Baer. He was the most important person in private banking.”

By 1119 GMT, shares in Julius Baer had fallen some 6.5 percent to 34.60 Swiss francs, underperforming a 1.5 percent drop in the DJ Stoxx index of European banking stocks .

Widmer will be succeeded by Hans de Gier, who served as the CEO of Julius Baer Group until September 2008 when he stepped down to focus on his role as chairman of hedge fund unit GAM.

“This is a setback for the bank. Widmer is widely regarded as the architect of its new direction,” Claude Zehnder, a ZKB trading analyst said.

“However, with De Gier they have someone very experienced in place who knows the bank inside out,” he said.

HEDGE FUNDS WEIGHS

Shares in Julius Baer have lost some 60 percent in 2008 as markets have worried about outflows at its hedge fund GAM, which accelerated in October.

Julius Baer has rejected speculation that it would shed GAM as it restructured its business to focus on wealth management, which has benefited from problems at rival Swiss bank UBS, which has seen strong outflows of money to clients scared by its heavy writedowns.

The company said in July that it no longer needed a group CEO after restructuring measures meant that Bank Julius Baer, GAM and U.S. asset management unit Artio Global would each operate as independently managed companies. Bank Julius Baer accounts for over 60 percent of group assets under management.

A GAM spokesman said De Gier will remain as GAM chairman in addition to taking on the Bank Julius Baer CEO role.

One trader said Widmer’s death could lead to “massive uncertainty among investors as a vacuum on the executive level happens in the worst possible time,” adding that takeover rumors could resurface in the future.

In November, the bank said net operating income to the end of October was down 10 percent from the previous year as assets under management were hit by falling markets, though private banking net inflows had risen significantly in the year to date.

In an interview with Bloomberg conducted the day before his death, Widmer said: “Even if global wealth creation is getting slower, we should do better than the rest.”

CHARISMATIC LEADER

Commenting on Widmer’s death, Chairman Raymond Baer said in a statement: “We have lost a dear friend, a good colleague and a charismatic leader.”

“Alex very successfully opened up new dimensions for the Private Banking business of Julius Baer. His enormous commitment, his active relationship and close involvement with the clients and his passion for banking will forever serve as a model for us,” Baer said.

Widmer joined the Julius Baer Group in 2005 as a member of the executive board and head of private banking and became the CEO of Bank Julius Baer in November 2007.

The bulk of his career was spent at Credit Suisse, where he worked for 19 years, as global head of private banking from 2002 to 2005 and as a member of the executive board.

Before that he was the chief executive of Credit Suisse’s Asia-Pacific and Middle East business. He also worked in Tokyo and New York early in his career after gaining a doctorate in economics from the prestigious St. Gallen university in 1985.


Zimbabwe: Total Collapse

December 5th, 2008

Collapse spans a wide spectrum conditions. I’m not aware of any situation worse than Zimbabwe.

Come to think of it, maybe Congo? Or…

Collapse tip NUMBER 1: Keep the shit out of the drinking water.

I don’t know what it is about shit in drinking water, but in any collapse situation, that’s what seems to happen. The situation in Zimbabwe emphasizes the point in a manner that makes me wonder just how much of what Kurt Vonnegut wrote was actually fiction…

(Sorry if I’ve ruined your day before you’ve had a chance to enjoy your coffee.)

Hmm.

Can anyone think of any failed state examples where the results weren’t horror layered upon horror?

Statelets are fair game. I can think of one that’s very interesting: Somaliland. And, while more of a Triad franchulate than a statelet, Kowloon Walled City makes for an interesting read.

Via: Times:

The townships of suburban Harare once boasted water and sewage systems that were the envy of Africa. They are now as broken as Zimbabwe itself. Raw sewage spills from manhole covers and is pumped into the city’s main reservoir. Thousands depend on the generosity of “water samaritans” lucky enough to have their own boreholes. Where even the poorest had taps and toilets of their own, people are queueing up at hand pumps, one engineer laments. “Civilisation has gone in reverse.”

People are also dying. A cholera outbreak that has killed more than 500 people could infect 60,000 by March, according to Oxfam. The outbreak is spreading four times faster than usual for want of transport to take victims to hospital, and basic medicines for those who get there. To contain the epidemic the Health Minister has advised Zimbabweans to stop shaking hands, but it has already spread to South Africa.

In Zimbabwe’s rural hinterland five million people will soon need food aid that the World Food Programme cannot afford to distribute. The Government is powerless to count the number dying of hunger, much less hand out food itself. But aid workers have seen children foraging in rubbish dumps alongside wild animals, and in Matabeleland one story encapsulates the despair of a nation – the story of a woman who, unable to feed her children, fed them and herself a fruit that she knew was poisonous. They were buried together.

Such are the tragedies that lend meaning to Zimbabwe’s statistics; to its 90 per cent unemployment, its 230 million per cent inflation and its average life expectancy of barely 40 years. In 1990, Zimbabweans could expect to live to 63.

Nine months ago, Robert Mugabe was rightly excoriated for stealing a presidential election having destroyed his country’s economy and brutalised its Opposition. Survivors clung to the notion that things could not get worse. They were wrong. As disease and famine take hold, the army has been condemned even in state-controlled newspapers for brazen looting. Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, has concluded more in bewilderment than anger that “everything seems to be collapsing around us”.

Research Credit: Lagavulin


Activist Moves Homeless Into Foreclosed Homes

December 5th, 2008

By placing this story in Collapse, I’m not making a value judgment on it; this is simply to indicate that we’re seeing the beginnings of a failed state situation.

From this story alone, it should be clear just how little power that state actually has. If somebody told you five years ago that homeless people would be squatting in foreclosed homes with tacit approval from the state, would you have believed it?

Not me, brother!

Well, here we are.

Via: MSNBC:

Max Rameau delivers his sales pitch like a pro. “All tile floor!” he says during a recent showing. “And the living room, wow! It has great blinds.”

But in nearly every other respect, he is unlike any real estate agent you’ve ever met. He is unshaven, drives a beat-up car and wears grungy cut-off sweat pants. He also breaks into the homes he shows. And his clients don’t have a dime for a down payment.

Rameau is an activist who has been executing a bailout plan of his own around Miami’s empty streets: He is helping homeless people illegally move into foreclosed homes.

“We’re matching homeless people with people-less homes,” he said with a grin.

Rameau and a group of like-minded advocates formed Take Back the Land, which also helps the new “tenants” with secondhand furniture, cleaning supplies and yard upkeep. So far, he has moved six families into foreclosed homes and has nine on a waiting list.

‘Everyone deserves a home’

“I think everyone deserves a home,” said Rameau, who said he takes no money from his work with the homeless. “Homeless people across the country are squatting in empty homes. The question is: Is this going to be done out of desperation or with direction?”

With the housing market collapsing, squatting in foreclosed homes is believed to be on the rise around the country. But squatters usually move in on their own, at night, when no one is watching. Rarely is the phenomenon as organized as Rameau’s effort to “liberate” foreclosed homes.

Florida — especially the Miami area, with its once-booming condo market — is one of the hardest-hit states in the housing crisis, largely because of overbuilding and speculation. In September, Florida had the nation’s second-highest foreclosure rate, with one out of every 178 homes in default, according to Realty Trac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. Only Nevada’s rate was higher.

Like other cities, Miami is trying to ease the problem. Officials launched a foreclosure-prevention program to help homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage, with loans of up to $7,500 per household.

The city also recently passed an ordinance requiring owners of abandoned homes — whether an individual or bank — to register those properties with the city so police can better monitor them.

Elsewhere around the country, advocates in Cleveland are working with the city to allow homeless people to legally move into and repair empty, dilapidated houses. In Atlanta, some property owners pay homeless people to live in abandoned homes as a security measure.


Canadian PM Wins Suspension of Parliament

December 5th, 2008

Via: Reuters:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper won a rare suspension of Parliament on Thursday, managing to avoid being ousted by opposition parties angry over the minority Conservative government’s economic plans and an attempt to cut off party financing.

Governor General Michaelle Jean — the representative of Queen Elizabeth, Canada’s head of state — agreed to Harper’s request to shut down Parliament until Jan 26. Parliament was reconvened just weeks ago after the October 14 election.

Harper’s request for suspension was unprecedented. No prime minister had asked for Parliament to be suspended to avoid a confidence vote in the House of Commons.

Such a vote had been set for Monday and the Conservatives almost certainly would have lost it, and faced the possibility of being replaced by a coalition of opposition parties.

After a two-hour meeting with the governor general, Harper reaffirmed his promise to present a budget on Jan 27 and called on the opposition to work with the government over the next few weeks to tackle the effects of the global financial crisis.

“Today’s decision will give us an opportunity — and I’m talking about all the parties — to focus on the economy and to work together,” he told reporters.

The opposition Liberals, New Democrats and the separatist Bloc Quebecois — all to the left of the Conservatives — had signed a deal to defeat the Conservatives and put forward a Liberal-New Democrat coalition to form a new government.

The Bloc, which wants to take French-speaking Quebec out of Canada, pledged to back the coalition’s budgets and general policy direction.

The governor general’s role in government, as representative of the Crown, is largely ceremonial, though she has the final word on constitutional matters. Should the government be defeated in a confidence vote, she would decide whether to call a new election or allow the opposition to form a coalition government.


Server Side Technical Problems

December 5th, 2008

Something is just not right with some combination of the latest WordPress + Super Cache + (maybe) BlueHost. A few hours ago, the author of Super Cache released an updated version and I have applied that.

Things seem to be working ok now, but know that I’m keeping a close eye on the situation.


UK: Are Your Papers in Order? Police Given World War 2 Era Powers to Demand ID Without Needing Any Suspicion of a Crime

December 5th, 2008

Via: Telegraph:

Police and immigration officers will be able to stop Britons and demand they prove their identity under proposed sweeping new powers.

Clauses in the draft Immigration and Citizenship Bill give state officials the power to make anyone who has ever entered the country, at any time, prove who they are without needing any suspicion of a potential crime.

Civil liberty groups warned that the catch-all clauses would effectively cover any British citizen who has ever left the UK, even for a holiday, because they will have “entered” the UK on their return.

Refusing to hand over the necessary documents would be a criminal offence with a maximum penalty of almost a year in prison and/or a hefty fine.

Officers will also be able to hold someone until they meet the requirements and can even demand a medical examination, although that will be more targeted at foreign nationals arriving from countries with high health risks of contagious diseases.

Critics said the move would see a return to war-time Britain where citizens had to carry their “papers” with them and accused the Government of bringing in compulsory ID cards by the back door.

Phil Booth, national coordinator of the NO2ID campaign, said: “We have not had any sort of law like this outside of war time.

“In practice it will be impossible to determine who has or has not entered the UK and therefore this applies to anyone in the UK.”

Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne added: “This is potentially a catch-all power which would allow the police or the officials to arrest and hold anyone who was unable to prove their own identity.

“The Government has always promised that it would never introduce such a draconian intrusion into our daily lives.”

The clauses in the Bill, contained in the Queen’s Speech, were unearthed by civil rights group Liberty and centre on a power to examine those who “arrive in, enter or seek to enter the UK”.

A sub-clause refers to anyone who “has entered the UK” and can therefore mean anyone who has entered either recently or in the past.

It means police or immigration officers would have the power to stop anyone, either at a port of entry or inside the country, and demand their identity purely on the basis they may have entered the UK at some point.

Clause 28 gives the power to require the production of a passport or other valid identity document.

A Liberty spokeswoman said: “This extends powers of examination to several new categories including anyone in the UK (whether a British citizen or not) who has ever left the UK at any time. ”

Currently, police or immigration officers can ask for identity if there is reasonable suspicion of a crime or immigration offence.

The Liberty spokeswoman added: “Clause 28(3) dramatically changes this premise allowing identity documents to be demanded of anyone that has at any time entered the UK by anyone authorised by the Secretary of State. No suspicion of criminality or immigration offending is required.”

She said it went “far beyond” what is reasonable for immigration control, adding: “We believe that the catch-all remit of this power is disproportionate and that its enactment would not only damage community relations but would represent a fundamental shift in the relationship between the State and those present in the UK.”

Around eight in ten UK citizens have a passport and the majority of those will have left the country at some point and therefore have “entered” again.

The clauses are in the draft bill to be put forward in the Queen’s Speech.

They say refusal to submit to demands for identification would be a criminal offence that carries a maximum penalty of no more than 51 weeks in prison and or a £5,000.

The Government is currently rolling out the controversial ID cards programme for both foreign nationals and Britons but has insisted it will not be compulsory for Britons to carry the cards.

But Liberty Director Shami Chakrabarti said: “Sneaking in compulsory identity cards via the back door of immigration law is a cynical escalation of this expensive and intrusive scheme.

Shadow Immigration Minister, Damian Green, added “This scheme will do nothing to improve our security, may make it worse, and will certainly land the tax-payer with a multi-million pound bill.

“Labour should be concentrating their efforts on things that will actually improve our security, like a dedicated UK Border police force, instead of trying to introduce ID cards through the back door.

“Now more than ever the issue of our basic freedoms is very important.”

A Home Office spokeswoman insisted there were no plans to make it compulsory for British citizens to carry or produce forms of identity.

She said: “It is simply wrong to claim there are any plans whatsoever to make identity cards compulsory for British citizens or to require British citizens to have their ID card – or any other form of ID – on them at all times and to present it when asked to do so.

“From next year British citizens will have the convenience of being able to use identity cards to travel in Europe, but they will not become the only way to prove your identityat borders and the UK passport will still be valid.

“In order to maintain an effective immigration control it is only right that we ask everyone attempting to enter to the UK to produce a valid identity document.”

But Mr Booth said it was “appallingly-drafted legislation”, adding: “They have got to the point that we must take the worst possible implication of the legislation.”


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