Wild Drop on Gold

October 11th, 2008

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

Selling gold to move into dollars? Goldman/Paulson/Fannie/Freddie Bucks? Tell me another one.

Anyway, this is why we say: Many eggs, many baskets.

Via: Reuters:

Gold dropped as much as 9.6 percent on Friday, reversing sharp morning gains as a wave of panic prompted investors to dump assets across the board to meet liquidity needs.

Gold traded in a wide range of more than $100 an ounce on Friday, capping a volatile week with gains of only 1.3 percent even as global stock markets lost heavily.

Bullion in overnight trade touched a 2-1/2 month high of $931 as a slide in the global equity markets sent investors racing to a safe haven from the financial crisis.

However, even gold could not withstand relentless selling across all asset classes as investors sought cash to cover margin calls amid steep losses in stocks. It hit a low of

$823.50.

Spot gold dropped to $845.80 at 2:50 p.m. EDT (1850 GMT), down 7.2 percent from Thursday’s nominal close at $911.50.

“It’s total panic. People are so scared that they are looking to liquidate everything that has cash value and to stay away from everything,” said Bruce Dunn, vice president of New Jersey-based Auramet Trading.

Dunn cited a sharp rally of the dollar and heavy losses in crude oil for gold’s dramatic turnaround on Friday.


Fannie, Freddie to Buy $40 Billion a Month of Troubled Assets

October 11th, 2008

Via: Bloomberg:

Federal regulators directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start purchasing $40 billion a month of underperforming mortgage bonds as the Bush administration expands its options to buy troubled financial assets and resuscitate the U.S. economy, according to three people briefed about the plan.

Fannie and Freddie began notifying bond traders last week that each company needs to buy $20 billion a month in mostly subprime, Alt-A and non-performing prime mortgage securities, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are confidential. The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which placed the two companies in conservatorship on Sept. 7, directed them last month to start increasing their purchases of loans and mortgage-backed securities as the Treasury seeks to absorb underperforming and illiquid assets from financial companies.

“For now, they’re under conservatorship and they have to be used to keep the flow of capital going to the housing market,” former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Conversations with Judy Woodruff.” “They’re important to maintaining the flow of government finance” and need to be used actively, he said.

Adding underperforming assets to Fannie and Freddie’s combined $1.52 trillion mortgage portfolios would come at a time when the two mortgage-finance companies already hold as much as $210 billion of bad debt that may be eligible itself for the Treasury’s relief program, their regulator said Oct. 5.

A spokesman for Washington-based Fannie, Brian Faith, and Doug Duvall at McLean, Virginia-based Freddie wouldn’t comment.


Oil Drops 10 Percent

October 11th, 2008

Via: Reuters:

Oil prices dropped more than 10 percent on Friday and touched 13-month lows in a global flight from risk amid concerns of a worldwide recession and further signs of slumping energy demand.

The International Energy Agency slashed its estimate of worldwide 2008 oil demand growth to its lowest rate since 1993, and lowered its 2009 growth forecast by 190,000 barrels per day.

U.S. crude plunged $8.89 to settle at $77.70 a barrel, the lowest levels since September 10, 2007, and down 17 percent from last Friday’s settlement. London Brent crude settled down $8.57 at $74.09 a barrel.

“At this point, margin calls are certainly a pressure factor in the crude oil market,” said Jim Wyckoff, president of Jimwyckoff.com, which provides commodities markets commentary.

“Some hedge funds, which are taking losses in other markets, are being forced to liquidate other holdings, such as those in the energy markets.”


September Earnings

October 11th, 2008

Cryptogon and Farmlet earnings in September came to a total of $1553.90.

Thanks to all cash contributors.

Thanks also to everyone who chose to help us out via affiliate relationships. Three quarters of total earnings in September were affiliate commissions. That’s the highest ratio ever.

BullionVault. Woh. You guys bought (and possibly sold) a lot of gold in September. I noted the largest ever transactions in dollar, euro and sterling accounts—the three currencies in which BullionVault does business—all in September. (In case you’re wondering, BullionVault provides me with no information about you or whether you bought or sold gold. I just see a commission payment on my statement.) Cryptogon readers have deposited just under US$1.5 million into BullionVault.

I’m not just a BullionVault affiliate. They keep my family’s “Good Delivery” gold bullion safe in a Viamat vault in Zurich, Switzerland. They can do the same for you.

Many of you are making a point of remembering to start your Amazon sessions via Cryptogon. Someone bought one of these fancy HDTVs. (Well, it seems fancy to me. I wouldn’t know a fancy TV from a WalMart junker.) The commission paid to Cryptogon from that one item was $52. I think that’s the largest ever commission from an Amazon purchase. The point is: It all adds up. From the 64 books to the foldable solar panel, to the stethoscope, to the insane, storm proof lighter, to the SteriPEN, to the dive watch, and the hundred other things that readers purchased. Thank you.

A Cryptogon reader ordered several computer books from Amazon.de. This contributed to the largest ever commission total from Germany. Thank you.

BlueHost remains popular with readers from all over the world, and for good reason: It’s an astonishing deal. Thanks to the people, who are responsible for the following sites, for going with BlueHost via Cryptogon:

airlinepilotforum.net
betterufoundation.org
censitivity.com
hewimetall.com
mixedmediacollective.com

Cryptogon and Farmlet are hosted by BlueHost.

There was Nitro-Pak activity as well. Thanks for that. If you’re in the market for long term storable food, and/or emergency preparation gear, Nitro-Pak is the way to go.

Finally, there was a TradeKing signup. I don’t actively promote this affiliate relationship anymore because there wasn’t much interest in it previously. Over the last couple of months, though, readers have opened two accounts there.

I’ve used a lot of different brokers over the years, and TradeKing has never let me down. It’s fast, cheap and reliable. I will tell you, however, that their charting package isn’t great. If you’re looking for a run and gun intraday rig, this isn’t for you. For swing traders and longer interval traders, it’s great. For options traders, it’s phenomenal.

Thanks, again, to everyone who helped make Cryptogon and Farmlet possible in September.


American Taxpayers Buying Bank Stocks

October 11th, 2008

The eye atop the pyramid seems to be glowing a bit brighter than usual.

Via: Bloomberg:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity “as soon as we can” in banks and other financial institutions to restore market stability and revive economic growth.

The Treasury is “working to develop a standardized program that is open to a broad array of financial institutions,” Paulson said at a press conference after a meeting in Washington of finance ministers and central bankers from Group of Seven countries.

The injection of equity would be aimed at sustaining banks and other financial institutions through the worst credit crisis in seven decades. Paulson declined to give a timetable or details about the purchases, and signaled that markets may be in for turmoil ahead.

“We’re going to do it as soon as we can do it and do it properly and do it effectively and right,” Paulson said. “Trust me, we are not wasting time; people are working around the clock to deal with this.”

A drop in home prices and illiquid securities tied to mortgages led to the collapse of some of the country’s biggest financial firms and to takeovers by the Treasury of American International Group Inc. and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage finance companies.

Under the equity purchase program, the Treasury would not be involved in bank management, Paulson said. Equity purchases would take place alongside Treasury’s coming program of “broad” mortgage asset purchases, he said.


BERLUSCONI: LEADERS MAY CLOSE WORLD’S MARKETS

October 10th, 2008

Via: Bloomberg:

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world’s financial markets while they “rewrite the rules of international finance.”

“The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,” Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to the financial crisis “can’t just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much 8.1 percent in early trading and pared most of those losses after Berlusconi’s remarks. The Dow was down 0.5 percent to 8540.52 at 10:10 in New York.

Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers are meeting in Washington today, and will stay in town for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings this weekend. European Union leaders may gather in Paris on Oct. 12, three days before a scheduled summit in Brussels, Berlusconi said today, while Group of Eight leaders may hold a meeting on the crisis “in coming days,” he said.

Berlusconi didn’t give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are “talking about a new Bretton Woods.”

The Bretton Woods Agreements were adopted to rebuild the international economic system after World War II in a hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The aim of the agreements was to establish a monetary management system, initially by pegging currencies to gold. The IMF was set up later to help manage the international financial system.


Lehman Swap Auction Initial Results Show Payout of 90.25 Cents

October 10th, 2008

What antics await us over the weekend?!

Via: Bloomberg:

Sellers of credit-default protection on bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. would be forced to pay holders 90.25 cents on the dollar under initial results of an auction today, setting up the biggest-ever payout in the $55 trillion market.

Preliminary results of the auction to determine the size of the settlement on Lehman credit-default swaps set an initial value of 9.75 cents on the dollar for the debt, according to Creditfixings.com, a Web site run by auction administrators Creditex Group Inc. and Markit Group Ltd. A final price is scheduled to be announced at 2 p.m. New York time.


Lehman Credit Default Swap Auction Bomb Drops This Afternoon

October 10th, 2008

Holy crap. Somehow, I hadn’t heard about this until just now. This could get very interesting over the next several hours.

Via: Guardian:

A major factor behind today’s plunging stock markets is anxiety before a settlement pricing tonight for an estimated $440bn of credit derivatives linked to failed US investment bank Lehman Brothers.

Analysts have predicted the Lehman settlement will trigger gross payouts of $350bn to $400bn. Meanwhile, the recent rash of Icelandic banking failures could bring further derivative payouts estimated at $200bn in the coming weeks.

No one is sure where the heaviest losses will be felt — and net losses are expected to be much lower than the headline payout estimates — but there remain fears the recent run of large-scale defaults may leave many hedge funds with payout demands they cannot meet. This, in turn, will force writedowns for those failing to receive payouts, many of them major banks.

Sandy Chen, a banking analyst at Panmure Gordon, this morning described the prospect of mass payment failures as “key drivers of the current apocalypse”. He pointed to Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland as being most exposed among the UK banks to the credit derivative market. Both have bought and sold, in roughly equal measure, £2.4tn of such contracts.

An explosion in the largely unregulated credit derivatives market in recent years has seen potential payouts balloon to levels that far outstrip the potential losses from the underlying bonds they reference.

Lehman had $110bn of senior bonds outstanding before filing for bankruptcy last month. Since default, those bonds have been trading between 15 cents and 20 cents in the dollar. Analysts estimate there are $440bn of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding in relation to Lehman senior bonds.

In theory, a CDS is a contract in which a bondholder buys insurance — known as protection — against that bond defaulting. In practice, however, CDSs have become hugely popular among investors trading on the likelihood of a bond default without holding the underlying bond. The market has proved particularly popular with hedge funds, in part because it offers an opportunity to “short sell” bonds.

Derivatives specialists insist it is impossible to predict which investors will be hit hardest by the losses on Lehman CDSs, which are spread far and wide, as Lehman was one of the most actively traded credit default swaps.

Chen believes Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland are likely to be prominent among those required to pay out on Lehman CDSs. Meanwhile, counterparties failing to meet their CDS obligations to the two banks could lead to significant writedowns. “Against this, tangible shareholders’ equity bases of £20bn to £30bn seem like cloth tents in a hurricane,” said Chen.

More: Lehman CDS: It Won’t Be Over Today


The Mystery of the Missing Opium

October 10th, 2008

Ask MI6 where it is.

Via: BBC:

It’s a mystery that has got British law enforcement officials and others across the planet scratching their heads. Put bluntly, enough heroin to supply the world’s demand for years has simply disappeared.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) describes the situation as “a time bomb for public health and global security”.

This week’s Map of the Week comes courtesy of the UNODC. It shows their latest estimate of opium production in Afghanistan – another bumper year.

A crop of 7,700 tonnes will produce around 1,100 tonnes of heroin – it basically works on a 7:1 ratio.The mystery is that the global demand for heroin is less than half that. In other words, Afghanistan only needs to produce 3,500 tonnes to satisfy every known heroin user on the planet.

Look at the graph, though.

For the past three years, production has been running at almost twice the level of global demand. The numbers just don’t add up.

Research Credit: EB, MT, others, sorry lots of email


The Gold Disconnect

October 10th, 2008

Via: Minyanville:

Professor Lewis,

How do you explain the open interest drop at the Comex?

The open interest is at a 2 year low? Why don’t people understand the disconnect? Are all the central banks working to silence the canary? How else do you explain the explosion of tons on the Gold ETF (GLD), the huge public demand for the metal, the disconnect with the Comex action and the inability for Gold NOT to scream higher in this environment.

Minyan Dave

MD,

Open interest is falling on the COMEX because I believe you are seeing a gradual exit from the futures market due to a general distrust for the futures market (and all counterparties in general) due to the environment. That’s why we see reports of physical gold demand exploding and lease rates moving to record levels as central banks pull back in their leased gold. But the futures seem to trade as if nobody cares. Those central banks are pulling in their gold because they are worried about counterparty risk. They’re afraid they won’t get it back.

We’re seeing similar exits from the futures market in oil and other commodities too, not because of demand destruction, but because of flight from counterparty risk. After all, with respect to oil, if there’s all this demand destruction, then where are the physical inventory builds? That’s what happens when supply remains constant and demand falls. Yet, inventories of crude and product are near multiyear lows in the US. Many southeastern states still don’t have any gasoline.

Don’t worry though, eventually the futures market has to reconnect with the physical, and that’s where I believe gold is going to explode. We got a small taste of this, if you will recall, last month, when the crude oil contract expired and jumped around $15 in a day (I can’t recall the exact amount) because financial players were forced to buy back the crude or come up with crude to deliver, which they didn’t have.

The supply of investment grade gold has literally gone to zero over the past several weeks with new production straining to meet demand. GLD is really the only place that big buyers can get their hands on gold anymore. Pretty soon even GLD will have trouble picking up more metal if things continue this way. The only outcome, in my opinion, is a huge move up in price at some point, and physical gold will become even more scarce. At that point, even the gold shares will start to be viewed as claims on gold in the ground.

Research Credit: Pookie


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