OIL BREAKOUT
July 11th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
WTI Crude is breaking higher from the previous range. New record high prints intraday at $145.91, probably on event risk.
Gold is showing a potential intermediate term break out above $950.
The dollar is lower, but that’s not the driver here.
This is a realtime update. Mainstream press will follow.
Dozens of Cryptogon Readers Send Contributions
July 11th, 2008Thank you.
JM $5
AS $20.00
KS $30.00
PL $10.00
DP $20.00
TM $24.00
HR $15.00
YC $25.00
DP $5.00
BP $5.00
PM $20.00
CA $5.00
AP $10.00
KE $5.00
CM $25.00
GD $5.00
TB $60.00
MW $10.00
WR $20.00
TH AU$13.00
ChezRadio CA$50.00
AF CA$6.00
MJ CA$6.00
BL AU$5.50
MS CA$25.00
DC NZ$20
Amazon Honor 1 $20
Amazon Honor 2 $25
Amazon Honor 3 $25
Amazon Honor 4 $50
Amazon Honor 5 $20
Amazon Honor 6 $10
Note: I see several Revolution Money Exchange payments in various stages of completion. About 1/4 of them have cleared, the rest are pending. Thank you for using RME and know that I’ll acknowledge these soon.
Related: June Earnings
FEMA Trailer Manufacturers Knew About Formaldehyde, Findings Went Undisclosed
July 11th, 2008It’s not a conspiracy:
“The problem was and remains confusion among federal agencies, not some conspiracy among trailermakers,” said ranking committee Republican Rep. Tom Davis (Va.).
It’s just a Coincidence that thousands of children from low income families will be dead from cancer before they have a chance to have children of their own.
Via: Washington Post:
A leading U.S. trailer manufacturer failed to disclose to Hurricane Katrina evacuees or the government its internal findings that formaldehyde in some units exceeded a federal health standard by as much as 45 times in 2006, its chairman acknowledged to Congress yesterday.
Jim Shea, chairman of Gulf Stream Coach, which built 50,000 trailers for the Federal Emergency Management Agency for $520 million, said his company decided that its results were “irrelevant information” because FEMA already knew about high formaldehyde levels. The agency and the company were working together to improve ventilation, he said, and FEMA later turned down company offers to conduct more tests.
In hindsight Gulf Stream should have shared information from its sampling, Shea said. “Anything that would have been helpful to public health in any kind of way with this in retrospect, we would have loved to have been able to shed more light on it,” he said.
The testimony came as Democrats and Republicans on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform clashed over builders’ responsibility for the housing debacle that unfolded after the August 2005 storm, raising both public health alarms along the Gulf Coast and doubts about how the government will house Americans in future emergencies.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended this winter that all Katrina trailer residents be moved to safer housing after finding elevated formaldehyde levels in 42 percent of trailers. Four companies — Gulf Stream, Forest River, Keystone and Pilgrim International — were identified as having significant problems.
Appearing under oath, executives of those companies each acknowledged CDC findings that some of their products contained unsafe levels of formaldehyde, a common industrial chemical used in glues to make particle board and plywood. It has been linked to cancer and higher rates of respiratory illness.
But company officials and some GOP lawmakers blamed the federal government for failing to set any binding indoor air-quality standards for formaldehyde in trailers or any other U.S. housing. Republicans from Indiana, where the recreational vehicle industry is based, defended builders’ records and integrity.
“The problem was and remains confusion among federal agencies, not some conspiracy among trailermakers,” said ranking committee Republican Rep. Tom Davis (Va.).
Research Credit: ltcolonelnemo
Fannie, Freddie ‘Insolvent’
July 10th, 2008Via: Bloomberg:
Mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “insolvent” and may need a U.S. government bailout, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole was quoted as saying in an interview with Bloomberg.
“Congress ought to recognize that these firms are insolvent, that it is allowing these firms to continue to exist as bastions of privilege, financed by the taxpayer,” Poole was quoted as saying in an interview held on Wednesday.
Chances are increasing that the government may need to bail out the two mortgage companies, Poole was quoted as saying.
Shares of the two companies have taken a beating recently on worries about whether they can withstand more losses and support housing as well as concerns that they may need to raise massive amounts of new capital.
Freddie Mac shares tumbled 23.8 percent to $10.26 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, while Fannie Mae shares sank 13.1 percent to $15.31.
Senate Approves Telecom Amnesty, Expands Domestic Spying Powers
July 10th, 2008The Obama cultists find the Kool-Aid to have a bitter aftertaste. McCain still doesn’t know which planet he’s on. The U.S. Ship of Fools sails on.
Via: Wired:
The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly voted Wednesday to grant retroactive amnesty to the telecoms that aided the President Bush’s five-year secret, warrantless wiretapping of Americans, and to expand the government’s authority to sift through U.S. communications, handing a key victory to the Bush administration.
The Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee Barack Obama (D-Illinois) voted for the final bill, despite intense lobbying by supporters who used Obama’s own online organizing technology to try to hold him to his promise to fight any bill that included amnesty. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama’s former rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, voted against the bill.
The 68 to 29 vote puts an end to more than a year of debate over whether the government should be able to collect millions of e-mails and phone calls daily from U.S.-based communication switches without any probable cause. It also answers whether Congress believes the nation’s telecoms and president had a duty to follow the rules set out in 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which was passed after the abuses of the 1950s and 60s.
If the FISA Amendments Act survives constitutional challenge, it dooms the dozens of anti-wiretapping lawsuits filed against the nation’s telecoms, by ordering the judge in charge of the cases to dismiss them if the telecoms can prove the government asked them to help out.
U.S. Cluster Bomb Related Atrocities to Continue
July 10th, 2008Via: Reuters:
The United States is taking steps to reduce the danger of unexploded U.S. cluster bombs while continuing to resist international pressure for an all-out ban on the weapons, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.
Cluster bombs spread tiny bomblets across large areas when dropped from planes or fired from artillery. But they sometimes do not all explode on impact, posing a lingering risk to civilians, especially children, after a conflict.
Under the new policy, from 2018 more than 99 percent of cluster bombs used by the U.S. military would have to meet standards requiring that they contain bomblets that explode on or just before impact, defense officials said.
The new policy, signed by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, also requires the U.S. military to eliminate excess supplies of cluster weapons by next June.
Human rights advocates criticized the change, saying it was unacceptable for the United States, the leading user and exporter of the bombs, to wait 10 years to accept a standard lower than an all-out ban advocated by the United Nations.
More than 100 countries meeting in Ireland in May formally agreed to ban the use of cluster bombs under a draft treaty that U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged states to sign and ratify quickly.
The so-called Oslo process against the bombs, modeled on a campaign against anti-personnel mines a decade ago, is due to end with the signing of a treaty in the Norwegian capital in December.
The United States has refused to take part in the talks and India and Pakistan have not signed the treaty.
U.S. Army Contract for “Internet Awareness Services”
July 10th, 2008Via: Federal Business Opportunities:
STATEMENT OF WORK
The contractor shall conduct internet awareness services in support of the Governments activities to include Indications and Warning, Force Protection, and situational awareness.
The purpose of the services will be to identify and assess stated and implied threat, antipathy, unrest, and other contextual data relating to selected internet domains. The contractor will prioritize foreign language domains that relate to specific areas of concern.
The contractor will analyze various web pages, chat rooms, blogs and other internet domains to aggregate and assess data of interest to the Government. It will also identify new internet domains that directly relate to the Governments specific local requirements.
The contractor will include a principle cyber investigator, a locally specialized threat analyst, a foreign speaking analyst with cyber investigative skills, and a constant watch team. It will organize additional native language translations at the direction of the Governments designated Contracting Officers Representative (COR), following mutual agreement.
The deliverable product will consist of a written report, delivered weekly to the COR. The report will contain raw data and supporting analysis to add value to raw materials. The contractors sources will be captioned under alias to preserve access, but upon request, the contractor will consider releasing specific URLs on an as needed basis based on the Governments request, if explicit threat materials or imminent threat to personnel or facilities are discovered.
The contractor shall immediately contact via telephone and/or email the designated COR upon receipt of any and all stated or implied threats that contain timing and/or targeting information relating to personnel, facilities or activities, and to specifically designated areas of concern.
As part of this alerting, if the contractor identifies a stated or implied threat that contains timing, targeting or both, it will deliver the raw URL and any supporting URLs relating to the threat materials. It will also make an investigator available within 8 hours of request for analytic discussions regarding the threat.
If the Government receives a deliverable report and believe the materials contain threat information, the COR may make a request for the URL release 24 hours a day to the contractor. The contractor will consider the ad hoc request for URL and respond within 12 hours. On cases where someone other than the COR makes a request, the contractor will notify the COR and will inform him or her of its decision.
Research Credit: treasonholdings
Ambac Soars 50% on Collateral Posting
July 10th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
See what I mean about buying calls when everyone is sure the end of the world is upon us!
Except… I bought GM calls and not Ambac calls. HA. Woops. Oh well, GM could unveil a free-energy hovership, with Cheney himself at the controls, by the time my GM 17.50 strike calls expire on July 18th… Right? * grimace * Perhaps that’s slightly ambitious…
On a serious note, someone asked me if I thought GM was a long term candidate for buy and hold.
No.
But that has nothing to do with GM. I don’t hold any stocks long term.
By rolling the dice on those call options, I was simply expecting a pump and dump short squeeze since the consensus on the street was that GM was doomed, a candidate for bankruptcy, etc. Those things appear to be true—but many times, what happens in cases like that…
Well, look at Ambac.
Pop goes the weasel.
It’s so easy to screw with shorts, short term. Bullshit press release. Market makers collude and stand on the bid for a few minutes or even hours. Maybe the index futures take off bullish. It doesn’t take much to get them to cover.
Via: CNN:
Shares of Ambac Financial soared by more than 50% Tuesday after the bond insurer said it had ample collateral despite downgrades from credit raters.
In a statement released Tuesday, Ambac said credit rating downgrades of its Ambac Assurance bond insurance unit resulted in the company posting $506 million to cover its guaranteed investment contracts (GICs). It also was forced to post $270 million for terminated investment agreements.
Pacific Northwest Hydro and Wind Systems Create Excess Electricity Supply
July 10th, 2008Nope, it’s not a typo.
Gigantic hydrogen, compressed air or flywheel “batteries” could be built for times like this… If the U.S. Government’s war funding could be re-purposed for a couple of days. * chortle * Yeah right.
Dams running low? Wind not blowing? Flip the switch on the “battery” when you need it.
Via: The Oregonian:
The Northwest is awash in electric power this spring.
Rivers are swollen. Columbia River dams are running full bore. Wind farm blades are spinning.
That should be good news for the Northwest, where hydropower is cheap and wind is a leader in renewable energy. And it should be good news for California, a huge electricity consumer that often sucks up Oregon’s springtime surplus.
But a doubling of wind-power supplies and an unusually concentrated surge in water levels have challenged this season’s power operations like never before.
“You throw a spiky late runoff into the equation, and a little extra wind, and it definitely gets interesting,” said Kieran Connolly, a power manager for Bonneville Power Administration.
The result: wasted power generation, excessive spill through the dams and a sometimes frenzied juggling of dam and transmission schedules.
High water levels benefit power supplies and migrating fish, but the levels in recent weeks have been too much of a good thing.
Oregon and Washington can’t use all the electricity that’s available. And southbound transmission lines that are at capacity can’t take the extra power California consumers otherwise would eagerly devour.
In some cases, power producers are paying customers to take electricity off their hands.
Operators of the Columbia-Snake River dams say there’s enough give-and-take in the system to handle large fluctuations in water flow and wind generation. But pressures have steadily increased, and they’ll intensify as more and more wind power comes into play.
Gone Fishing
July 8th, 2008Becky’s mom and dad invited Becky, Owen and me to spend the next couple of days at a remote beach bach, somewhere near the northernmost tip of New Zealand. There’s no telephone where we’re going, and no Internet access.
I don’t know when I last took a couple of days off, mid-week, but that’s when the best specials run on accommodation like this. The fact that leaving the site alone for a couple of days is giving me a touch of anxiety almost certainly means that I have developed an unhealthy relationship with this work. (I promise that you won’t read a lengthy and now commonplace “burned out blogger” post here, even if it happens.) Admittedly, I did check to see if there was a phone line available for dialup because I was planning on bringing my laptop. Nope. I’m packing a box of beer and a few books instead.
See ya in a couple of days…
UPDATE: Here are some pictures from our little holiday:

Mangrove Bach, Paua

Owen inspects the kitchen

Watching the tide roll in… and out…

The Quangle Wangle Quee?

Becky and Owen

Becky’s Dad, Bruce, catches fish for dinner

The owners of the property keep an incredible menagerie

Heavy traffic on the return trip home


