FDIC TO ADD STAFF AS BANK FAILURES LOOM
February 27th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The balance in my U.S. bank account? About $83.
I know that many of you keep substantially more money in U.S. banks, so please watch your FDIC limits.
Via: Wall Street Journal:
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is taking steps to brace for an increase in failed financial institutions as the nation’s housing and credit markets continue to worsen.
The FDIC is looking to bring back 25 retirees from its division of resolutions and receiverships. Many of these agency veterans likely worked for the FDIC during the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 financial institutions failed amid the savings-and-loan crisis.
FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said the agency was looking to bulk up “for preparedness purposes.” The division now has 223 employees, mostly based in Dallas.
The agency, which insures accounts at more than 8,000 financial institutions, is also seeking to hire an outside firm that would help manage mortgages and other assets at insolvent banks, according to a newspaper advertisement.
In public, policy makers are debating what role the government should play in trying to stabilize the housing market and minimize foreclosures. Meanwhile, regulators have worked discreetly behind the scenes to closely monitor the growing number of troubled banks and thrifts considered at risk.
“Regulators are bracing for well over 100 bank failures in the next 12 to 24 months, with concentrations in Rust Belt states like Michigan and Ohio, and the states that are suffering severe housing-market problems like California, Florida, and Georgia,” said Jaret Seiberg, Washington policy analyst for financial-services firm Stanford Group.
In job postings on its Web site, the FDIC said it is looking for people with “skill in performing duties associated with a financial-institution closing, such as receivership management, resolutions and/or asset disposition; knowledge of the resolutions process as it relates to complex financial institutions.” Such positions would require “very frequent overnight travel,” the posting said, and would pay up to $180,770.
“The notion of bringing back some people who have been through it before is very smart,” said William Isaac, who was FDIC chairman from 1981 until 1985. All told, the FDIC has roughly 4,600 employees, far fewer than the about 15,000 it had as recently as 1992.
On Sunday, the FDIC ran a newspaper ad seeking companies that could service commercial loans, mortgages and student loans in the event of a bank failure. It didn’t say how much a company could earn in this area.
The FDIC rated 65 banks and thrifts as “problem” institutions at the end of the third quarter of 2007, up from 47 institutions a year earlier. Both figures are low by historical standards. At the end of 1993, there were 572 “problem” banks and thrifts. The FDIC is expected to update its data on “problem” institutions today.
GREENSPAN TO ARAB STATES: DROP U.S. DOLLAR
February 27th, 2008Via: Reuters:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday near-record Gulf Arab inflation would fall “significantly” were the oil producers to drop their dollar pegs, in contradiction to Saudi policy.
The pegs restrict the Gulf’s ability to fight inflation by forcing them to shadow U.S. monetary policy at a time when the Fed is cutting rates to ward off recession and Gulf economies are surging on a near five-fold jump in oil prices since 2002.
Rifts are growing across the world’s top oil-exporting region on how to tackle inflation which hit a 27-year peak of 7 percent in Saudi Arabia in January and a 19-year peak of 9.3 percent in the United Arab Emirates in 2006, the most recent figure.
“In the short term free floating … will not fully dissipate inflationary pressure, although it would significantly do so,” Greenspan told an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s second-largest city.
Saudi and UAE central bank chiefs spoke in favor on Monday of retaining dollar pegs, while Qatar’s prime minister advocated regional currency reform to avert possible unilateral revaluations designed to curb inflation.
“The economies of the Gulf and the United States are completely out of sync and that is exposing the shortcomings of the dollar peg,” said Simon Williams, Middle East economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Dubai.
“Against a backdrop of inflation, high oil prices and low interest rates the debate over currency reform has to take on greater urgency,” he said.
Related: Greenspan Joins Hedge Fund that Made Billions Shorting Subprime Derivitives
EMERGENCY: U.S. DOLLAR INDEX STRATEGIC DOWNSIDE BREACH OF 74.50
February 27th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
74.39.
It’ll be all hands on deck to try to slow this down. This is an emergency for the European Central Bank.
Housing in Freefall: No End in Sight
February 27th, 2008Via: AP:
House prices may still have a long way to fall.
Across much of the nation, home values are dropping — even those backed by solid mortgages — and banks are repossessing more every day. Most experts say the dive won’t hit bottom for another year and only after excess inventory is sharply reduced and credit markets improve.
More government intervention may be needed, too, if the free market system doesn’t work quick enough.
“The housing value crisis is spreading and deepening,” said David Abromowitz, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. “It has gone way beyond subprime borrowers stretched too far with bad loans and now has clearly extended into the housing markets more broadly.”
U.S. home prices dropped 8.9 percent in the final quarter of 2007 compared with a year ago, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. That marked the steepest decline in the index’s 20-year history.
Millions Lost Power in Florida
February 27th, 2008So fragile.
Via: Miami Herald:
Power has been restored to the vast majority of the millions of South Floridians and other state residents who endured a major blackout Tuesday — a failure caused by a fire in a Miami-Dade County substation, according to utility officials.
Virtually everyone in South Florida had power by 5:30 p.m. and only about 40,000 customers around the state remained in the dark — mostly due to unrelated outages caused by a powerful cold front that is moving down the peninsula, officials said.
At its peak, the main power failure left as many as four million people without electricity in South Florida, along the Gulf Coast, in the Orlando area and elsewhere around the state, according to state officials.
The outage was caused by a fire at Florida Power & Light’s Flagami substation — not in the utility’s nuclear plant at Turkey Point, as reported earlier by some media outlets, FPL President Armando Olivera said during an evening news conference.
Both nuclear reactors at Turkey Point tripped off as a safety measure, taking a plant that supplies power to more than 450,000 homes almost instantly off-line and causing a shortage that affected other parts of the power grid, he said.
But the problems at Turkey Point were a consequence of the initial failure, not the originating cause, FPL said.
Research Credit: Off the Reservation
U.S. Spies Want to Find Terrorists in World of Warcraft
February 27th, 2008Practice models for SEAS?
It’s too early for April Fools…
Via: Wired:
Be careful who you frag. Having eliminated all terrorism in the real world, the U.S. intelligence community is working to develop software that will detect violent extremists infiltrating World of Warcraft and other massive multiplayer games, according to a data-mining report from the Director of National Intelligence.
The Reynard project will begin by profiling online gaming behavior, then potentially move on to its ultimate goal of “automatically detecting suspicious behavior and actions in the virtual world.”
Research Credit: BW
Gold Breakout Higher, Oil Breakout Higher: Watch the Dollar Now
February 27th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
Gold and oil are, right now, setting fresh all time highs. How about the dollar?
While EUR/USD has hit an all time high at 1.5047, the European Central Bank has probably tried to calm things down a bit, looking at the last several 15 minute candles. That’s just a guess. This is happening right now so there’s no official word. They’ve managed to knock it back to just under 1.5000.
The U.S. Dollar Index is the one nut that hasn’t cracked yet, for those of us who have been profiting from this situation.
74.50.
How many times have I said it?
Well, we’ve got a daily low of, are you ready, 74.50.
The next 24-48 hours represent a strategic make or break point.
I’m keeping my allocations the same:
Gold (Bought a little more on the recent dip into the $920s.)
New Zealand Dollar
Swiss Franc
The only US$ I’m holding is what I consider to be “petty cash” for reckless speculation with options. I have no options bets laid on now. I am keeping one eye on DBA. I’ll look to re-enter that one on any good pullback.
Now, what could They do to throw a wet blanket onto this dollar bear party?
While you, me and just about everyone let out a collective * pfft * with all the IMF gold sale talk, They will, I repeat, WILL manage to frighten some people by dumping a few tons into the spot market.
That’s nice.
I’m not selling.
Let it rip, guys. There’s far more confetti out there than gold.
Guatemala to Expose Army Torture Files
February 26th, 2008Somehow, the Reuters article below doesn’t mention the CIA even once…
As usual, the reader needs to look elsewhere for the basic, contextual facts:
Jennifer K. Harbury Knows American Torture Starts at the Top, and It Has for Decades:
…my husband had indeed been captured alive, had been held for two and a half years and severely tortured, then extra-judiciously executed or assassinated by military intelligence officials in Guatemala, who were also on the CIA payroll as paid informants.
In other words, the CIA had been paying the very people that were torturing and who eventually killed my husband without trial. The documents from the U.S. government also showed that both the CIA and the United States Embassy had known where my husband was, and the fact that he was being tortured in the hands of U.S.-paid informants, from the first week of his capture.
C.I.A. Death Squads by Allan Nairn
History of Guatemala’s ‘Death Squads’ by Robert Parry
Relevant Declassified U.S. Documents from the National Security Archive’s Guatemala Collection
Nope… Not one word about CIA.
Via: Reuters / Sydney Morning Herald:
Guatemala’s new President Alvaro Colom said yesterday he would open army files for the first time to make public details of massacres and torture by soldiers during the country’s 36-year civil war.
“We are going to make all of the army’s archives public so we can know the truth, to start building on a foundation of truth and justice,” said Mr Colom, who beat a right-wing former general to take office in January.
Almost a quarter of a million people were killed or “disappeared” during the 1960-1996 conflict between leftist guerrillas and the government. More than 80 per cent of the murders were committed by the army, according to a United Nations-backed truth commission.
The commission, which compiled thousands of interviews with victims after the 1996 peace accords, named no officials, in part because the army files were not open to the public.
Mr Colom’s uncle, Manuel Colom Argueta, a leftist politician with presidential ambitions, was killed by the army in 1979 in a well-coordinated ambush.
Rights groups say the new army files will help solve war crimes when matched with information in the police archive discovered in June 2005, as police collaborated with the army.
Mr Colom said all the information from the military will be turned over to the human rights ombudsman, also in charge of cleaning and categorising the thousands of police documents left to go mouldy in an old warehouse behind a dump for rusted cars.
The massive paper trail gives hope to family members who are looking for answers about their long-disappeared relatives.
Eighty-year-old Emilia Garcia hopes the army files will contain clues about her son Fernando Garcia, a union leader shot by police in 1984, taken to a military hospital and never heard from again.
“We have been waiting 24 years for the state to give us some answers. All I want is to find my son’s remains, he is not a lost dog,” she said.
Banks Lose in Court to Deadbeat Homeowners as Loans Sold in Bonds Vanish
February 26th, 2008Please make sure you get some of this fine calliope music playing before you read on.
Down payment: $0
Liar loan origination fees: $5000
Preventing a bank from foreclosing on you because they can’t prove they own the note: Priceless.
Via: Bloomberg:
Joe Lents hasn’t made a payment on his $1.5 million mortgage since 2002.
That’s when Washington Mutual Inc. first tried to foreclose on his home in Boca Raton, Florida. The Seattle-based lender failed to prove that it owned Lents’s mortgage note and dropped attempts to take his house. Subsequent efforts to foreclose have stalled because no one has produced the paperwork.
“If you’re going to take my house away from me, you better own the note,” said Lents, 63, the former chief executive officer of a now-defunct voice recognition software company.
Judges in at least five states have stopped foreclosure proceedings because the banks that pool mortgages into securities and the companies that collect monthly payments haven’t been able to prove they own the mortgages. The confusion is another headache for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as he revises rules for packaging mortgages into securities.
“I think it’s going to become pretty hairy,” said Josh Rosner, managing director at the New York-based investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. “Regulators appear to have ignored this, given the size and scope of the problem.”
More than $2.1 trillion, or 19 percent, of outstanding mortgages have been bundled into securities by private banks, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a Bethesda, Maryland-based industry newsletter. Those loans may be sold several times before they land in a security. Mortgage servicers, who collect monthly payments and distribute them to securities investors, can buy and sell the home loans many times.
Housing Boom
Each time the mortgages change hands, the sellers are required to sign over the mortgage notes to the buyers. In the rush to originate more loans during the U.S. mortgage boom, from 2003 to 2006, that assignment of ownership wasn’t always properly completed, said Alan White, assistant professor at Valparaiso University School of Law in Valparaiso, Indiana.
“Loans were mass produced and short cuts were taken,” White said. “A lot of the paperwork is done in the name of the original lender and a lot of the original lenders aren’t around anymore.”
More than 100 mortgage companies stopped making loans, closed or were sold last year, according to Bloomberg data.
The foreclosure rate, at 1.69 percent of all U.S. homeowners, is the highest since the Mortgage Bankers Association began tracking it in 1993. The foreclosure rate for subprime borrowers, who have bad or incomplete credit and whose mortgages typically are securitized by private banks rather than government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is at a four-year high, according to the mortgage bankers.
The Three Trillion Dollar War
February 26th, 2008Via: Times Online:
The Bush Administration was wrong about the benefits of the war and it was wrong about the costs of the war. The president and his advisers expected a quick, inexpensive conflict. Instead, we have a war that is costing more than anyone could have imagined.
The cost of direct US military operations – not even including long-term costs such as taking care of wounded veterans – already exceeds the cost of the 12-year war in Vietnam and is more than double the cost of the Korean War.
And, even in the best case scenario, these costs are projected to be almost ten times the cost of the first Gulf War, almost a third more than the cost of the Vietnam War, and twice that of the First World War. The only war in our history which cost more was the Second World War, when 16.3 million U.S. troops fought in a campaign lasting four years, at a total cost (in 2007 dollars, after adjusting for inflation) of about $5 trillion (that’s $5 million million, or £2.5 million million). With virtually the entire armed forces committed to fighting the Germans and Japanese, the cost per troop (in today’s dollars) was less than $100,000 in 2007 dollars. By contrast, the Iraq war is costing upward of $400,000 per troop.
Most Americans have yet to feel these costs. The price in blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for it – in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real even if they have been deferred, possibly to another generation.


