U.S. Slides Into Dangerous 1930s ‘Liquidity Trap’

January 26th, 2008

Via: Telegraph:

The United States is sliding towards a dangerous 1930s-style “liquidity trap” that cannot easily be stopped by drastic cuts in interest rates, Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz has warned.

“The biggest fear is that long-term bond rates won’t come down in line with short-term rates. We’ll have the reverse of what we’ve seen in recent years, and that is what is frightening the markets,” he told the Daily Telegraph, while trudging through ice and snow in Davos.

“The mechanism of monetary policy is ineffective in these circumstances. I’m not saying it won’t work at all: it will help the banking system but the credit squeeze is going to go on because nobody trusts anybody else. The Fed is pushing on a string,” he said.

The grim comments came as markets continued to suffer wild gyrations, reacting to every sign of contagion spreading to Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.

Wall Street has begun to stabilize on talk of a rescue for the embattled bond insurers, MBIA and Ambac.

The Fed’s 75 basis point rate cut allows the banks to replenish their balance sheet by borrowing at short-term rates and lending longer term, playing the credit ‘carry trade’, hence the 9pc rise in the US financials index yesterday. But confidence remains fragile.

Professor Stiglitz, former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said it takes far too long for monetary policy to work its magic. This will not gain much traction in the midst of a housing crash.

“People have been drawing home equity out of the houses at a rate of $700bn or $800bn a year. It’s been a huge boost to consumption, but that game is now up. House prices are going to continue falling, and lower rates won’t stop that this point,” he said.

“As a Keynesian, I’d say the biggest back for the buck in terms of immediate stimulus would be unemployment assistance and tax rebates for the poor. That will feed through quickly, but set against the magnitude of the problem, even a fiscal stimulus package of $150bn is not going to be enough,” he said

“The distress is going to be very severe. Around 2m people have lost all their savings,” he did.

Research Credit: PD


Cryptogon Readers Sign Up for Hosting with BlueHost

January 26th, 2008

Thanks to the owners of caseymarks.net and wqxt.com for signing up for webhosting with BlueHost. Cryptogon receives $130.


“Foreclose Me… I’ll Save Money”

January 25th, 2008

I love it. The f@*&%! buyers and the banks are now in a Mexican standoff.

The banks have a hell of a lot more to lose than the slobs who are upside down on their stucco boxes.

Via: Los Angeles Times:

A homeowner who can’t sell his house tells the L.A.Times, “Foreclose me. … I’ll live in the house for free for 12 months, and I’ll save my money and I’ll move on.”

Banks and lenders fear this kind of thinking — that walking away from a house could be the smart economic move — appears to be on the rise. Wachovia, in a conference call yesterday, warned investors that increasing numbers of homeowners are walking away from their homes by choice: “… people that have otherwise had the capacity to pay, but have basically just decided not to because they feel like they’ve lost equity, value in their properties…”

Calculated Risk notes this is “one of the greatest fears for lenders … that it will become socially acceptable for upside down middle class Americans to walk away from their homes.”

A commenter on L.A. Land this morning writes, “I am one of these people. My condo has dropped in value from $520K in 5/06 when I bought it to $350K now. My ARM payment will probably go up $900 per month in June.

“Despite all this, I would be willing to stay if the bank would refi the loans to a 30 year fixed, but since I’m not a ‘hardship’ case they’d apparently rather foreclose. I guess the only way I could qualify for loan mitigation is to get my boss to fire me, stop making payments, and wreck my credit. In fact, my bank won’t even talk to me until I miss a couple of payments.

“I have purchased a cheaper place in a nearby area now, while my credit is good, and will stop making payments on house #1 after house #2 closes. I know the foreclosure will be on my credit for 7 years, but I will have saved a lot of money.


Gold Above $900 Again

January 24th, 2008

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

UPDATE 08:25 GMT: GOLD $920

WEEEEE!

Congratulations to everyone who caught the falling chainsaw in Cryptogon’s Reckless Speculation and Pachinko Lounge the other day!


Wee!

For anyone keeping track, the trade was based on several factors:

1) $850 was the previous all time high on gold.

2) $850 was the 50% retracement level on the Fibonacci grid (drawn from the low on December 17, 2007 to the high on January 14, 2008).

3) $850 was the 61.8% retracement level on the Fibonacci fan (drawn from the low on December 17, 2007 to the high on January 14, 2008).

4) Intraday RSI and Stochastics were blown out oversold.

5) Hourly MACD crossed up.

6) The bounce off $850 formed a bullish hammer on the one hour interval chart.

UPDATE 06:45 GMT: Gold Climbs Above Previous All Time High

Prints inside $915.

Speculation on which way Helicopter Ben’s jetwash is going to blow…

The overhead resistance was around $914.


Cryptogon Reader Contributes $50

January 24th, 2008

Thanks, IL.


Second Largest Bank in France Hit by €5 Billion Fraud

January 24th, 2008

Should we laugh? Should we call bullshit? Should we recoil in horror?

I’ve got it:

“With traders like this, who needs CDOs?”

Hee Hee Haar Haaaar

Via: Telegraph:

The French bank Société Générale stunned financial markets today by revealing that it had been the victim of one of the largest frauds by a rogue trader — losing four times as much as Nick Leeson, the man who sank Barings.

The second-biggest French bank said that it had lost €4.9 billion (£3.7 billion) as a result of the rogue trades by a Paris-based trader who concealed his positions through “a scheme of elaborate fictitious transactions”.

It said that it was in the process of dismissing the trader, who had “confessed to the fraud”. Some of his managers would also be leaving the company.

The fraud appears to be one of the biggest in history, dwarfing the £827 million lost by Mr Leeson, whose rogue trading led to the collapse of Barings in 1995.

SocGen described the fraud today as “exceptional in its size and nature”.

The trader, who has not been named, was in charge of trading what SocGen called “plain vanilla” European stock market index futures.

Plain vanilla is a phrase frequently used in the City to describe supposedly simple and straightforward securities, as distinct from more complex and esoteric investments.

Traders in index futures take bets on the future direction of share market indices such as the FTSE 100.

Normally, they are governed by strict trading limits to prevent catastrophic losses, or they hedge their overall exposure with offsetting bets.

SocGen said that the trader had breached his trading limits and had managed to conceal his losses because of his knowledge of the bank’s control systems gleaned from his previous job processing trades at the bank.


Peak Oil Video Game

January 24th, 2008

“As U.S. Army theorist Ralph Peters wrote, the effect of media on young men, in terms of reaching national security objectives, ‘is destructive beyond the power of words to describe.'”

—Maxim Participates in Israeli Intelligence Operation Targeted at U.S. Men

Wow.

In addition to the push by corporate media to sell the nonsense meme of a collapse due to energy scarcity, we’ve got peak oil strippers and video games to further rot the lizard brains of “men of fighting age.”

What’s next? Big budget Hollywood blockbusters about Peak Oil? Die Hard 89 Octane? Get your Commemorative 40oz Slupree cups now! Limited time only… U.S. Army mobile recruiting vans outside the malls and megaplexes?

Oh sure.

In the meantime, think about what Lockheed Martin—the largest armaments manufacturer in the world—means when it uses the phrase, “Energy independence for the Warfighter.”

Via: CNN:

“If they play this game they will walk away thinking ‘wow, energy is a problem,” he said.

Experts say video games can be fun as well as educational, although the outcome largely depends on the content.

“They could in fact lead to changes in attitudes, beliefs, and ultimately, changes in behavior,” said Craig Anderson, a professor of psychology at Iowa State University who studies the effects of video games on people.

The multi-player version of Fuel of War lets gamers connect and play along side or against each other from anywhere in the world.

They can choose to fight for the Western Alliance, made up of the U.S. and European countries, or the Eastern Alliance consisting of China and Russia.

And the choice of weapons is staggering – players can hop from ground combat with an array of hand-held munitions to flying helicopters, planes, or driving tanks – all futuristic designs DeLise and his team created using current weapons and intelligence gleamed from the Internet and other sources on next-generation military hardware.

Fuel of War, set for release in February, is a first-rate shoot ’em-up game with a well developed story line. It is one of a growing number of games that center around the theme of energy.

A previous game from Kaos centered on an oil war in the Caspian region, and Energyville, a SimCity-like Web-based game from Chevron and the Economist Group, lets players plan the energy needs of a future city.

But Anderson, the psychologist, is concerned about the message that violent games like Fuel of War may send to players.

“It may well change attitudes towards the use of these tactics as a political tool,” he said. Players may think “of course we have to use military tactics to go take oil.”

DeLise dismisses such concerns, saying nations go to war all the time over resources, and that the game is merely a reflection of reality.

Related: With the vast funding of the U.S. government behind them, the Army/Navy team began developing a game that hopefully would turn some of its players into real soldiers.

Research Credit: JL

Posted in Energy, Perception Management, Social Engineering, War | Top Of Page | Comments Off on Peak Oil Video Game

Solazyme Introduces Its First Algal Biodiesel, Enters Development Agreement With Chevron

January 24th, 2008

Via: Green Car Congress:

Solazyme, Inc., a synthetic biology company formed in 2003 to pursue biofuels from microalgae, is introducing Soladiesel, its first algal biodiesel, which has undergone road testing in a blend by powering a Mercedes-Benz sedan for long distances under typical driving conditions. Solazyme also announced that it has signed a feedstock development and testing agreement with Chevron Technology Ventures, a division of Chevron USA.

Solazyme is currently producing thousands of gallons of algal oil for use in producing algal biodiesel via conventional transesterification or algal renewable diesel via refinery-based hydrotreatment.

The company also has a research project underway for the production of algal biocrude oil. The biocrude or biopetroleum will be designed to match the composition of light sweet crude oil. The biopetroleum would be fully compatible with the infrastructure that refines, distributes retails and consumes petroleum products—not just automobile fuels but aviation fuel and chemicals as well.

Biopetroleum will require an industrial-scale biofermentation process that can produce pure, long-chain hydrocarbons efficiently. The company is receiving funding from NIST on this project.

Related: New Zealand: Firms Secretely Developing Algae Derived Jet Fuel

Posted in Energy | Top Of Page | Comments Off on Solazyme Introduces Its First Algal Biodiesel, Enters Development Agreement With Chevron

Red Cross Warns of Gaza Crisis

January 23rd, 2008

Via: AP:

The international Red Cross issued a dire warning on the state of basic services in Gaza on Tuesday, calling on Israel to lift a blockade it has imposed in response to increased rocket attacks by Palestinian militants.

Israel eased the siege for a day on Tueday, allowing in shipments of fuel and medicine. But the International Committee of the Red Cross said aid needed to be allowed into the territory on a regular basis to prevent a complete collapse of health and sanitary services.

“Deliveries of essential humanitarian goods must be secured in the long run to prevent more hardship and to avoid the collapse of the already fragile infrastructure,” said Dorothea Krimitsas, a spokeswoman for the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Israel sealed Gaza on Thursday, halting fuel shipments. Three days later, Gaza’s Hamas rulers shut down the territory’s only power plant, which provides electricity to about one-third of Gaza’s 1.5 million residents.

Krimitsas said the situation remained precarious. Gaza’s hospitals were pooling their fuel to maintain life-saving services such as surgery and intensive care units.

Medical supplies are running out and health staff are having problems getting to work because transportation has become more difficult, Krimitsas told reporters.

“There is no functioning central heating in the hospitals,” she added.

The ICRC, which acts as the guardian of the Geneva Conventions on the rules of warfare, has repeatedly called on both Israeli armed forces and Palestinian militants to ensure that their conflict avoids harming civilians.

Krimitsas said Israel needed to provide conditions for Palestinians to live normal lives without relying forever on emergency relief.

“Humanitarian aid alone cannot help contain the crisis,” she said. “What is needed are political steps … to ensure that enough imports are allowed into Gaza to make life bearable.”


Pentagon Explores ‘Human Fear’ Chemicals; Scare-Sensors, ‘Contagious’ Stress

January 23rd, 2008

Via: Wired:

…the US Army is trying to track down and harness people’s smell of fear. The military has backed a study on the “Identification and Isolation of Human Alarm Pheromones,” which “focused on the Preliminary Identification of Steroids of Interest in Human Fear Sweat.” The so-called “skydiving protocol” was the researchers’ method of choice.


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