Dollar: Top China Official Suggests Currency Shift
November 7th, 2007Via: MarketWatch:
The U.S. dollar stumbled to new lows on Wednesday after a top Chinese official called for the country to shift more of its huge foreign exchange stockpiles out of the beleaguered greenback.
Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, was quoted by wire services as saying China should shift more of its $1.43 trillion of currency reserves into “stronger currencies,” such as the euro, to offset “weak” currencies like the dollar.
He also said a rapid appreciation of the yuan is not necessarily the right move — as Washington and increasingly Europe are requesting — though Cheng insisted the country wasn’t actively seeking a major trade surplus.
The reports sent the beleaguered dollar to new lows against the euro, with the shared currency surging as high as $1.4703 from $1.4559 late Tuesday.
The Japanese yen also rallied, with the dollar falling to 113.52 yen from 114.71 yen. The British pound surged to $2.1025 — the first time sterling has broken $2.10 since May 1981 — from $2.0866.
Gold futures, which traditionally move in the opposite direction to the dollar because of their role as an inflation hedge, jumped $23.40 to $846.80 an ounce, and rose as high as $848 an ounce during the European morning. Oil futures rose above $98 a barrel in electronic trading.
“As if ballooning U.S. credit/ housing crunch data, back-to-back Fed cuts and soaring oil prices weren’t enough to stun the U.S. dollar, now we have the specter of central bank reserve asset diversification out of U.S. dollars to contend with,” said Vincent Chaigneau, the head of fixed income and foreign currency strategy at Societe Generale, in a note to clients.
GM Quarterly Loss One of the Biggest in Corporate History
November 7th, 2007Via: Yahoo / AP:
General Motors Corp. posted a company record $39 billion loss in the third quarter, as a charge involving unused tax credits brought an abrupt end to string of three profitable quarters for the nation’s largest automaker.
The loss reported Wednesday was one of the biggest quarterly corporate deficits ever and it sent GM’s shares down more than 8 percent in premarket trading.
The loss was attributed to a $38.6 billion noncash charge largely related to establishing a valuation allowance against accumulated deferred tax credits in the U.S., Canada and Germany, as well as mortgage losses at GM’s former financial arm, GMAC Financial Services.
But accounting rules require that companies expecting to keep losing money cannot keep carrying deferred tax credits indefinitely and must write down the value of such credits.
Soybean Futures Soar on Inflationary Buys
November 7th, 2007Via: FXStreet:
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended sharply higher Tuesday, rallying to 3-year highs on speculative led buying tied to inflationary fears.
November soybeans settled 23 3/4 cents higher at $10.29 1/2 and January soybeans ended 23 1/2 cents higher at $10.44 1/2. December soymeal settled $7.70 higher at $284.60 per short ton. December soyoil finished 106 points higher at 43.62 per pound.
A dearth of fresh fundamental news kept traders focused on outside influences, with soaring metal futures, record high crude oil prices and weakness in the U.S. dollar promoting broad-based commodity wide buying, said Vic Lespinasse, an analyst with Illinois Grain.
The market will probably stay focused on outside influences until the release of fresh fundamental data in Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports, he added.
EMERGENCY: DOLLAR EXTENDING VERY STRONG DECLINE, OIL $98
November 7th, 2007Via: Bloomberg:
Crude oil rose above $98 a barrel for the first time in New York as the dollar tumbled to a record low against the euro and a storm disrupted output in the North Sea.
BP Plc and ConocoPhillips evacuated oilrig workers, adding to concern that supplies may be insufficient. The U.S. Energy Department is set to report today that inventories fell for a third week, according to a survey of analysts.
“The weakness in the dollar is giving investors the chance to buy oil at a cheaper price,” said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. “Any further declines will only push oil higher.”
Crude oil for December delivery gained as much as $1.33, or 1.4 percent, to $98.03 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the highest since trading began in 1983. It traded at $97.91 at 11:32 a.m. in Singapore. Futures have gained 66 percent in the past year.
Yesterday, oil rose $2.72, or 2.9 percent, to settle at $96.70 a barrel, a record close.
The dollar’s decline increased the attractiveness of commodities as alternative investments. A weaker dollar reduced the costs for buyers paying in other currencies.
The dollar slumped to a record low against the euro on speculation interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve will prompt investors to buy higher-yielding currencies.
The dollar declined to $1.4666 per euro at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo, the lowest since the 13-nation currency started in January 1999, from $1.4557 late yesterday.
Gold New High: $830
November 7th, 2007WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The shorts are being decapitated right here. I’ve got the chart open right now. No stories yet. If the shorts tap the mat and start to cover… Well, the chart will be suitable for framing.
Even more suitable for framing, I should say.
UPDATE: USDX Takes Out 76 On the Downside
Printing 75.97.
Overshooting??? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
UPDATE: I Have to Go Milk a Cow Now, Gold at $835
This is all very exciting and gold is now printing at $835, but I have to go milk a cow now.
Best of luck to all!
Possibly More Good News for Gold Bugs: Sentiment Remains Lukewarm
November 7th, 2007WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
I’ve speculated that maybe we were seeing the public participation phase on gold. Well, maybe not.
Maybe not even close.
Excellent article here. Sums up a lot of late breaking information, and previous concepts covered on Cryptogon re: contrarian indicators.
Via: Seeking Alpha:
John Dizard, writing in the FT Monday, (‘Treading the foothills of a gold bull market’ ) outlined why he believes that we remain in the early stages of the gold bull market with a long way to go yet. Primarily this is because the mass of investors have yet to partake in the gold bull market and because the Fed is going to have to reinflate further which will be bearish for the dollar and as gold remains an important monetary instrument it will be bullish for gold. “So, even at about $800 an ounce, the real gold bull market has not begun.”
Despite gold reaching new record 28 year highs above $800 the sentiment towards gold remains lukewarm at best. Most of the UK, Irish and international financial press and media barely covered or ignored this significant development at the weekend. This, and the fact that the investment public remain unaware of the gold price and the merits of investing in gold are classic contrarian indicators which show that gold remains in the early stages of its bull market. When gold is covered as headline news in newspapers on a daily basis and articles appear regularly about the merits of investing in gold and how to invest in gold, then it will be the later stages of the bull market and an indicator that it may be time to sell. When stockbrokers start telling their clients and the wider investment public to buy the gold ETFs, it will be time to sell. When there are gold and commodities supplements alongside property supplements in major newspapers it will be the time to sell. When the topic du jour on the dinner party circuit is “how great my gold investments are performing,” it will definitely be time to sell.
Bull markets end in mass participation and mania and we are a long way from there yet. Besides this obvious lack of animal spirits and wholesale bullishness towards gold, it is also important to remember that gold remains undervalued. Gold will have to at least reach its inflation adjusted high of $2,200 per ounce (as oil and many other commodities have already done) before it could be considered fair valued or over valued.
Boris Sobolev of the Resource Stock Guide wrote perceptively: “What if, however, we are wrong and gold is now, in fact, making a final spike to its all time high of $850 or higher. The aftermath, as after the top in 1980, could be severe and it would be time to sell? Is this a real possibility?”
No, the situation today is completely different:
• In August 1979, Paul Volcker became the chair of the Federal Reserve and started to fight inflation by radically raising interest rates. Today, Chairman B. Bernanke, in an effort alleviate the pain in the ailing banking system, is aggressively lowering interest rates. • 28 years ago, the United States was the biggest creditor nation in the world. Now, the opposite is the case – U.S. is the largest debtor. This, along with the Fed policy, is causing the dollar to fall to historic lows.
• Gold may appear to be overextended but this is not the case in real terms. In fact, gold should be around $3,000/oz in order to reach its inflation adjusted highs. Only then will there be a real reason to worry about a possible end of the gold bull market. We reiterate that the gold bull market has a long way to go. Don’t be afraid to miss the boat – there are many opportunities ahead. Hold your positions and buy the dips.
Foreclosure Wave Sweeps America
November 6th, 2007Via: BBC:
A wave of foreclosures and evictions is about to sweep the United States in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis.
This could destabilise the US housing market and may also lead to further turmoil in financial institutions, who collectively own $1 trillion (£480.6bn) worth of sub-prime debt.
Cleveland, Ohio, is an industrial city on the banks of Lake Erie in the US “rust belt”.
It is the sub-prime capital of the United States. One in ten homes in the city is now vacant, and whole neighbourhoods have been blighted by foreclosed, vandalized and boarded-up homes.
Many of these homes are now owned by the banks and investment pools owning the mortgages, and the company making the most foreclosures in Cleveland is Deutsche Bank Trust, which acts on behalf of such investment pools.
Cleveland is facing a rising crime wave, and the cost of demolishing the vacant houses alone will cost the city $100m of its tax base.
EMERGENCY: DOLLAR
November 6th, 2007Europe might try to stop it here. EUR/USD over 145 is an emergency situation for them. I don’t know what their plan is, but expect them to try it soon. USDX is a hair over 76. They’ve got to do something right here.
Via: Bloomberg:
The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on speculation financial-company losses from subprime-mortgage defaults will grow, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates a third time this year.
The U.S. currency declined versus all 16 of the most- actively traded currencies except the yen after Fed Governor Randall Kroszner said conditions for subprime-mortgage borrowers may worsen. It dropped the most against the South African rand, falling 1.2 percent.
“The dollar will continue to weaken because the rate differentials move against the dollar,” said Marcus Hettinger, a currency strategist at Credit Suisse Group in Zurich. “The subprime issue is negative because it increases the probability that the Fed will ease again.”
The U.S. currency dropped to an all-time low of $1.4556 per euro before trading at $1.4547 as of 7:03 a.m. in New York, from $1.4469 late yesterday. The dollar may fall to $1.46 in the coming days, Hettinger said.
Against Australia’s currency, the dollar declined to as low as 92.66 U.S. cents, compared with 92.07 late yesterday in New York. The U.S. currency fell to 92.59 cents against its Canadian counterpart, from 93.33 cents yesterday, and to 6.5013 rand, from 6.5900. It was at $2.0878 against the pound, near a 26-year low of $2.0897. The dollar traded at 114.72 yen, from 114.55 yen.
Dollar Assets
“Conditions for subprime borrowers have the potential to get worse before they get better,” Kroszner, the Fed’s chief liason officer with the banking industry, said in remarks delivered to conferences in Arlington, Virginia and Washington yesterday. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said today in a BBC Radio 4 interview it may take months before commercial banks publish their full losses from the U.S. subprime-mortgage slump.
“The rolling credit crisis and lack of confidence in the U.S. financial sector is heightening fears for the broader U.S. economy,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist in Sydney at ABN Amro Holding NV, the biggest Dutch bank. “The broader outlook for the dollar still looks very challenged.”
Gold Bulls Gain Momentum
November 6th, 2007Gold has broken up and out of its 1 hour channel. The dollar is falling apart even more.
Via: Reuters:
Gold futures traded at their highest level in nearly 28 years on Monday, as renewed turmoil in the credit markets boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal after Citigroup said it will have to write off up to $11 billion more in losses.
Markets Fear Banks Have $1 Trillion in Toxic Debt
November 6th, 2007Via: Financial Times:
A new phase in the credit crunch, one of “$1 trillion losses†seems to be dawning. The crisis at Citigroup and renewed doubts about some of the world’s leading banks disquieted stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, with the fractious mood set to continue.
The FTSE 100 fell 69.2 to 6,461.4, with Alliance & Leicester (down 4 per cent) and Barclays (off 3 per cent, to a two-year low) singled out for punishment. In New York, Citigroup, down |4.9 per cent to multi-year lows, weighed on the Dow Jones index, which fell 51.7, or 0.4 per cent, to 13,543.4. Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers also dropped on speculation they face more writedowns on top of the $40bn (£19bn) announced in the past four months.
Bill Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management, said US mortgage delinquencies and defaults would rise in 2008. “There are $1 trillion worth of sub-primes, Alt-As [self-certified] and basically garbage loans,†he said, adding that he expects some $250bn in defaults. “We’ve only begun to see the pain from rising mortgage payments,†he added. Brian Gendreau, an investment strategist at ING, commented: “Financials are 20 per cent of the S&P 500 and if that sector doesn’t do well all bets are off. People just don’t know what’s on the balance sheets.â€
The banks remain unwilling to lend to each other, preferring to rebuild their balance sheets and “hoard liquidity†to buttress themselves against any shocks from repatriating off-balance-sheet losses from their special investment vehicles (SIVs). However, this tightening up has led to a vicious circle. Making credit tougher has exacerbated the problems of struggling mortgage holders in America; default rates then rise and make the banks even more exposed to losses as credit agencies downgrade their assets. This seems to be what happened at Citigroup. The admission that it was unable to assure investors that a potential $11bn write-down for sub-prime mortgages would not grow has led to this fresh fit of extreme nervousness. Huge write-downs by Merrill Lynch ($7.9bn) and UBS ($3.4bn) have not helped.


