International Energy Agency Chief Economist on Oil: “If Iraqi Production Does Not Rise Exponentially by 2015, We Have a Very Big Problem”
June 28th, 2007Kill off, plain and simple.
Via: DailyKos:
If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. The numbers are very simple, there’s no need to be an expert…
I’m amazed at how difficult this is for many to come to terms with. It must be a painful thing.
Powering down means a whole new paradigm, and all we know is the growth paradigm. It means a lot fewer mouths to feed. Most (it seems) would rather not face that then straighten their spine and get to work.
Ergh, this is all so depressing. I still don’t know how to deal with this!
I read this site everyday and I just know I don’t have enough cash to escape this madness. I am still young and even though I save like mad, I still don’t have nearly enough resources to protect myself in the future.
I do want to take action but if I do it now the wheels will come off for me as I don’t have enough resources.
If I can’t do it and I have saved a huge chunk of my salary every month, how many people can make the change/move?
I just feel lost and confused…
SW,
It is confusing and feeling lost is healthier than blissful ignorance.
I’ve been feeling the need to say this for a while; while I appreciate Kevin’s efforts in sharing news one doesn’t find elsewhere, I find his perspective ultimately unhealthy, pessimistic, and rooted in a belief in the omnipotence of the ruling elite.
Fortunately, his perspective is also fundamentally incorrect.
First off, the logic is this: some of us are going to make it, and only by escaping or distancing ourselves from a completely dysfunctional society. The remainder of humanity is doomed, enslaved or worse. The elite are working in unison and are in complete control. Struggle is useless, escape the only choice.
On the other hand, I think fleeing is futile. I see the task facing humanity as the abolition of a system of production that is based on profit, and the establishment of a society based on the fulfillment of real human needs. Capitalism is a system that is in a fundamental crisis, and the wars, hunger, the rise of the police state are a futile attempt to manage the constantly growing contradictions produced by the drive for profit..
… Look, I don’t have the time right now to write the full essay I wish I could write, as I’m in the same place as you and have to get some work done so I can pay the bill.
In a limited way, I agree with Kevin. This society is on it’s way out. The only solution that remains is to build a new one. Begin now, right away. Build trust with your neighbors, co-workers, and friends. Get involved in any sort of community or municipal disaster response programs. Begin to speak to people about these things, get past nervousness, but build trust and mutual respect. Read history about previous revolutionary times, including the US Civil War, because these are revolutionary times. You’ll notice that revolutions are never just responses to repression, but based on the growth of new forces that must overturn obsolete instutions in order to move society forward.
Realize you are a part of that force, the working class. Finally (I *really* have to wrap this up.) take a look at the World Socialist Web Site (http://www.wsws.org/) Their perspective is a forward, progressive solution to these global problems.
(Kevin, I read and post here because although I have fundamental disagreements with your views, you have not completely succumbed to misanthropy, unlike many of the, say, gold/bubble bloggers.)
SW,
I know how you feel, but when you look at the big picture, there is NO WAY to escape this. You may buy some time by moving like Kevin did, but at some point you’re going to have to face this.
Mike Ruppert illustrated a vital point during his time in Venezuela. As he said, he was a fish swimming against the rest of the school – he didn’t fit into the culture and because of that, he was more vulnerable than he would have been had he stayed in the US. Not soon after he moved back.
I’m of the same frame of mind. I am currently applying for permanent residence in Canada, and I may still pursue it (if time permits), but given the strangle-hold our military has over Canadian affairs (to say nothing of the NAU), it’s my current intention to prepare for the future here in the US and do the best I can in a culture that I don’t agree with it, but at least I’m used to.
As such, I am executing a strategic plan that can work if I’m lucky enough to survive. I live in a small farming community on a 1/2 acre of land. I have room for a large garden and I’m growing my own orchard. I have plenty of trees and water around me. I’m certainly better prepared for what’s coming than most, though not as well as Kevin, I must admit. Definitely would help to have a mate who was attuned to what’s happening in the the world, but they are scarce/absent here in the Midwest, so I’m going it alone with my dogs.
It’s a tough call and you’re certainly not alone.
@SW
1. Buy your plan ticket after August, at the end of vacation season. Buy it online and compare prices.
2. Travel light. Take a hard look at what you really do and don’t need. Consider your luggage in relation to where you are moving. In many other countries electronics are more expensive, but some of the basic goods/services like healthcare and food can be less expensive.
3. A lot of what happens depends on the country you go to, and how long you can secure your stay there. In an interesting relation, countries that are in recession are cheaper to live in, but job opportunities are scarce and the crime rate may be a problem.
4. Jobs. If possible, consider getting a job teaching English. This applied almost everywhere. Some countries, like Argentina will prefer to have teachers who pass some certification, whereas in Mongolia all they want are warm bodies.
5. Don’t settle for tourist prices. If you’re at a market, bargain your ass off.
6. Find something to do on the side. If it’s on the internet, all the better, because it will portable to wherever you go. Then the only thing you have to deal with is warehousing the goods and selling them, and you don’t even have to deal with that if you sell information or run a blog, like Kevin’s here. The key here is you have something working for you, instead of you working for it to produce income. See if the area you plan on moving to has any community farms you can work a few hours a day on in turn for room and board.
7. An obvious tip perhaps, look for ways to save money on rent/food. If it gets down to the point where you have to leave, consider researching some ways to game the system. If you can’t get more income, then cut expenses. If you can’t do that, then go for unconventional methods.
8. Most importantly, form an idea of what kind ‘level’ you’re willing to live at. If you’re going to be a traveling vagabond, or have a wife/kids hanging with you, all thats going to form what kind of your you’ll have overseas.
Oh, and once you could create a travel blog, or do some kind of travel writing.
SW, what are your skills and qualifications? If you have no dependents and are able to get a safer and saner country to accept you as a Skilled Migrant, why not try? You can spend many productive months as a WWOOFer (Willing Worker on Organic Farms) to obtain room and board, learn some valuable skills, and make connections with like-minded people. I imagine that I’m not the only one who is willing to take in a fellow Cryptogoner while he or she catches his or breath after the Great Escape. Welcome to chez Pookie, I’ll say as I pour ya’ll a glass of cheap red, after giving you an Up Close and Personal tour of my cool and groovy worm farms (or whatever I’m enthused about at the moment).
pookie said: “You can spend many productive months as a WWOOFer (Willing Worker on Organic Farms) to obtain room and board, learn some valuable skills, and make connections with like-minded people.”
This is what I would probably be doing right now if I didn’t have commitments that are keeping me in the trenches…
@Paul,
I kind of agree regarding Kevins negativity but its the reality we find ourselves in. I would rather be realistic and negative than obliviously happy. I don’t think fleeing is futile. By choosing the correct country/destination you’re trying to stack as many odds in your favour as possible so as to survive. Maybe by fleeing you buy yourself enough time so as to survive until things normalise?
@Jake
Are you sure theres no way to escape this? This may sound FAR fetched but has anyone considered buying their own island and surviving off that? I know this sounds far fetched but hear me out. If you have the funds to do this then you can become totally self sufficient! If you could get a few dozen people together this may be a cool option, you could all club together to purchase the island and necessary items to survive like solar panels, farming utensils etc etc. Just an idea…what does everyone thing?
@ General Patton
Good advice! I have immigrated twice in the space of 8 months believe it or not so I know how to travel light! My medium term goal is to relocate to Tasmania. I still have to research the place more and possibly do a LSD (look see decide) but the little I know currently, it looks positive and fairly isolated from the world.
I am trying my damn hardest to make a living from not working a 9 to 5 job. When I crack this then I will be as free as a bird. I just hope I can do this soon enough so I can concentrate on other more important items.
As far as my budget is concerned, theres just no ways I can streamline my budget anymore. I save 30% of my gross salary and my current expenses are minimal. I even share my flat so my rent is minimal. Luckily I am single so moving around is quick and easy for me.
@Pookie
I am in IT currently. Do a bit of everything really: security, networking, web hosting, infrastructure, hardware etc. Everything but programming really (although I do dabble in some scripting and can read code). As you can see I have no REAL skills to survive the mess we find ourselves in and that scares me.
I have actually already left South Africa over a year ago and moved to the UK. I couldn’t stand the big brother type place that London has become so I left the UK at the beginning of the year. I am now living on an island near France am and really liking it here but I don’t know if its a good medium to long term plan. Also, my visa runs out in 2yrs and I dunno if they will renew it.
While all that was happening I was approved for an Australian work visa and visited Perth last year to activate the visa. I REALLY wish I had flown to Tasmania while I was there as that is where I am keen on settling. I like Australia but I don’t like the “ties” it has with the USA.
Can you tell me more about this WWOF? Maybe thats a good way for tme to start learning all the self suffiency skills I need? I watched a program on BBC called “It aint easy being green” and boy where they right! Trying to become 100% self sufficient is DAMN hard and VERY expensive. I just don’t have that kind of funds right now…;-(
Help?
@ Paul, socialism is a failed, tired old concept. It would only work if the proletariat were all sinlessly perfect and utterly selfless beings, which alas humans are not. It’s an ideal suited to another race of creatures, perhaps ants. Trying to impose it on humans will inevitably require an iron fist and plenty of gulags to whip the selfish plebs into line…
@ SW, the starting point is accepting that you need to extricate yourself from a dangerous emerging police state, while you still have the time to do so. Who knows how far this globalist project will go, but you can see at this stage that places like the USA, the UK, and thereafter Canada and the EU, will be hardcore fascist regions very soon, whereas other locations will hopefully take much longer. But wherever you choose, I’m sure you appreciate it should be rural and far from large urban areas, with decent growing conditions for a self-sufficient lifestyle and minimal bureaucracy and taxation.
so what is the problem with being obliviously happy.
we are almost all screwed anyway.
my only problem is I’m no longer oblivious.
SW — try http://www.wwoof.org for links to Willing Workers on Organic Farms hosts by country. http://www.wwoof.com.au is the Ozzie website, and I noticed that in the ads there, a host from Tasmania was seeking help.
SW,
You’re missing the whole point of what the elites are trying to achieve here. They want to be the first ones to literally control the WHOLE planet – every person, every resource, everyone’s future. They are not going to go to all this trouble and then allow some non-elites to just opt-out of their little demented game.
Sure, you can get your own island, but that isn’t going to prevent them from coming and taking you off it. Think of this as the extention of keeping everyone tied to the grid (see Kev’s recent article restricting personal wind-generators) and technology – as long as your are kept within the various layers of the matrix, you are under their control. If some folks are allowed to escape, then others are going to try to escape as well. Again, this is contrary to their very twisted plans for humanity. They have already stated that they will achieve this goal either by consent or force, so this isn’t something anyone’s going to just turn their back on and ignore. Frankly, it’s that approach that has allowed the elites to reach this degree of monopoly in the first place, so it hasn’t proven to be an effective approach.
cryingfreeman,
I wish I had the time to write a more detailed rebuttal to your statement regards human nature. I’d just point out that our conceptions of human nature have changed over time, and to strongly suggest that you view Adam Curtis’ documentary for the BBC, The Trap.
While I do have some level of disagreement with his views, he argues that our modern understanding of “human nature” has it’s roots in the Cold War, and that it both strongly empowers the moneyed interests that are discussed here and imposes a static, increasingly dysfunctional and limited view of humanity. While he does not suggest a single alternative, he calls for space to re-open the discussion.
If you’re at all interested in continuing the dialogue, let me know.
@ Paul, I doubt we’d get far. My view on human nature comes from my religious convictions (Calvinism), i.e., I believe man is inherently evil, that is, selfish and proud. This is verified by what I see in myself and in the best of people I know.
Ultimately, there is no system of government that does not conduce to the establishment of a privileged and materially secure elite, as history has shown with capitalist democracy, monarchy, etc, and of course, with socialism. In every instance, the biblical maxim that the rich rule over the poor and the borrower is servant to the lender holds good, and why? Because the love of money is the root of all evil in this world, thanks to the selfish nature we are alas born with.
The only present solution I can see for those of us who care about this is to extricate ourselves as much as possible from the debt-interest-slavery system and to physically relocate to sustainable locales on the periphery of society where we can live low profile lives with minimal intrusion from government.