Oil Experts See Supply Crisis in Five Years
July 10th, 2007I’ve got to admit something: With each passing day, this issue bores me more and more. I’ve seen this thing coming for so long, and writing about it, that I’m quite simply sick of it.
I’m content to stop posting stories like this until actual, no-shit collapse events begin to unfold. You know? Wake me up when U.S. Marines are deployed in Los Angeles (again).
You guys tell me: Is it helpful to see stories like this for the 50,000th time? Is this news to a single Cryptogon reader? I’ve said it more than once: Energy scarcity is like the American Dream, you’ve got to be asleep to believe it. But I’ve beaten that thing to death now. Peaknics write in to try to change the subject to peak wheat, or peak copper, or peak water when they see that I’ve cut that energy scarcity nonsense off at the knees. I agree that the other scarcity issues are real, and it repeats, over and over again. It’s like one of those vintage, manual crank egg beaters going through one side of my skull and out the other.
Hint: Press the Peak Oilers into a corner and you know what many of them are actually all about? Depopulation programs. When they can’t argue the energy angle any longer, because it’s absurd, they start talking about kill off. This is a common theme out there in “overshoot” circles. Here are some recent examples in Cryptogon comments: here and here.
If you don’t believe it, well, you don’t need Cryptogon. Just read what the mainstream press is telling you now: Get ready to pay more, doom, useless eaters, no alternatives, doom, panic, too many people, repeat.
Energy scarcity was interesting to me when it was just a few freaks, cranks and lunatics in our Internet backwaters talking about it, but now that this has gone mainstream; Peak Oil and Paris Hilton, together at last… I grit my teeth having to sift through this stuff now.
How about calling “enough” on the Peak Oil stories on Cryptogon until, like I said, things really get weird, and the kill off program accelerates?
Via: Telegraph:
The International Energy Agency has predicted a supply crunch in the world’s oil markets that could send prices soaring and place a severe dent in global growth.
In a report that painted a bleak outlook for the global economy, the IEA said spare capacity in oil production would dry up over the next five years, even as demand continues to jump significantly.
“Oil and gas price pressures look set to remain in the coming years,” the report said. “Slower-than-expected GDP growth may provide a breathing space, but it is abundantly clear that if the path of demand does not change on its own, it may well be driven to change by higher prices.”
The gloomy prognosis puts consumers on warning for higher petrol prices at the pump, soaring utility bills and increased food prices as suppliers bear additional costs for bringing goods to market.
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The price of oil is already closing in on record levels above $75 a barrel amid geo-political tensions, and shows no sign of declining.
Kevin –
I respect your burnout with everything Peak Oil, especially now, when you have much better & more productive issues demanding un-eggbeatered brainspace. 🙂
At the same time, there’s always a chance that some pilgrim might wander into the Cryptogon seeking enlightenment (you might or might not be surprised at the number of people who still have no clue as to the facts surrounding the PO concept), so a good alternative might be a Category link (you could call it “::yawn::”) to a central dumping-ground page, with all your past PO stuff and some quick links to any particularly heinous PO press that catches your eye in the future…
No need for summaries, or commentary, minimize that eggbeater action; just slap up links to things you deem post-worthy.
Personally, I find myself drawn to those particular stories – it’s kind of like a hurricane coming up the coast, even after I know whether it’ll hit us or not I’m still checking in on the NOAA site… just to watch inevitability in action.
^_^
You, though, you’ve got much more important things to concentrate on than the Daily Doom ‘n Gloomathon – post what you think is worth your time, & I bet you’ll be right.
sounds good. less noise, more signal.
Of course the human species could make energy consumption so cheap and efficient that there would enough for trillions of people.
But I think its about more than energy. People want to better themselves. They want to improve their standard of living. They want a realization of all the pipe dreams being sold to them through the TV and other media.
Remember the cartoon of the worker with the boss on his back holding a stick with carrot dangling on a string so that the worker moves forward? What if there aren’t enough carrots to go around? Use an illusory carrot. After the worker has carried you where you want to go and it evaporates, the worker will get mad, but you will have gotten to where you want to go.
What can the worker really do, aside from kill you and and/or take your carrots? To head off that possibility you have people working for other carrots, real or illusory to protect you from the likes of him.
They don’t know that they might not get their carrot.
That’s the essence of a free, competitive society. Every moment is a struggle to not get ripped off.
Leadership likes it like that because it makes things easier for them. They don’t have to keep lofty promises because the system allows them to break any they make without consequences. Think about how hard it would be to manage a civilization that constantly wanted more; more time, more energy, more things; and wanted them all as entitlements.
Unless people are integrated into systems, they more or less cannot create anything of value. At least not today.
This whole “peak” thing is really about the leadership saying: “We don’t want more people with more things to manage.”
Additionally, the more wealthy people are, the more difficult they are to govern. Their material needs being met, they now have free time to meddle in politics.
Everything I’ve seen and read in the last five years is about crushing peoples’ expectations for a better tomorrow. That way people won’t be disappointed, and perhaps revolutionary when they can’t retire at 30 with a harem of perpetually nubile women and an army of robot servants that self-repair.
I haven’t grown tired of PO yet….. I think its always fun to hear the latest propaganda no matter what the subject is.
On the related subject – I have toyed with the idea of males being “fixed” when they reach the ability to impregnate. Of course the negative aspect is whether the procedure is forced on someone or not. Another factor being that the reversal process is not guaranteed, also expensive, but would probably be much cheaper to subsidize then all the accidental or welfare pregnancies. Plus I think the reversal probability relies more on the skill of the physician than the procedure – who knows?
But…. look at the large list of positives: huge reduction of children used simply for selfish purposes; no more unwanted pregnancies; no more emotional torture over abortion decisions; if the reversal process could be made 100% all pregnancies would be a completely conscious decision because of having to go thru (and maybe pay for) the reversal process; and of course, other than disease (which is a big worry), less worrisome sex.
Energy scarcity is very real…because no one has patented, conquered, or otherwise owns the sun. What corporations can deal with Free? What lobbyist can pimp it?
Keep the occasional link coming, an interesting one every once in a while. I’d rather figure out how to
(Btw, I hereby claim the sun as my sovereign domain.)
‘less noise, more signal’
i always get a kick out of that saying. the signal is in the noise. we apply personal filters to the things that matter to us regardless. seeing the same ol same ol regarding peak oil does make it noise, however, throwing out the baby with the bathwater is not a good idea either.
having stories that relate to peak oil via (or conversely) depop, seismic events due to ‘motivated removals of oil from ground’, reflections of unstable business practices, etc, would be beneficial from an overall timeline perspective.
personally, i have to admit to being an information collector. it’s always interesting when a story passed around several years ago decides to show again with a new ‘flavour’ or spin. the changes from an original publishing to the later dated version can be enlightening.
of course, with all that having been said, there is always something to be said for novelty for demographics and market share issues. (
Karin, has a point, some people round here a newer than others.
Kevin wrote: “Hint: Press the Peak Oilers into a corner and you know what many of them are actually all about? Depopulation programs.”
I once tried introducing permaculture and biodynamic farming to a bunch of peak oilers on a NZ peak oil list. Some were outright hostile about the whole suggestion while the rest seemed quite bamboozled by the idea. They really weren’t interested.
You’re probably thinking I was naieve to try but I’ve learnt my lesson now. I left the list straight after that, it was run by a maniac called Robert Atack. Atack by name, attack by nature pretty much summed him up.
I’m not sure I understand Kevin’s thesis on energy. My interpretation is, “Elites are engineering an energy shortage crisis during which they will kill a large fraction of people.” Correct me if I’ve misunderstood.
I have an open mind, but this strikes me as completely bonkers until I see some serious substantiated evidence. I haven’t seen it here. Maybe it has been posted, but I haven’t seen it. I’m not trolling, just confused.
I find the ERoI analyses of non-fossil fuel energy sources rather convincing of a genuine crisis. Where is the documentation on real world experience with cheap and abundant tidal or solar power? What leads to the conclusion that “elites” are blocking its development? I buy that there are powers that have systematically under-invested in the US grid, for example. But blocking development of allegedly abundant and cheap energy across the whole globe? Come on.
I must admit I’m suffering from a bit of Peak Oil fatigue myself. I think Peak Oil is going to happen at some point – the inverse hypothesis (that we’ll be able to expand oil production indefinitely) is more absurd. I think the issue here is that we’re not going to see some “Holy Shit” event where one day we’ve got plenty of oil and then *bam* we’ve past the peak and fighting eachother over a few litres of fuel for our Mad Max sand buggies.
There are so many factors at work that any transition (if or when it comes) is unlikely to be smooth and predictable. We have OPEC playing with the supply-side, the US govt distorting the market with ethanol silliness, energy traders playing the futures markets, consumers changing consumption habits in response to prices, some renewables becoming viable and others being prodded with subsidies. Not to mention the falling purchasing power of the USD (used to price oil) relative to other currencies, the devaluation of ALL paper currencies relative to commodities.
All this means that even if we’re in a “Peak Oil” situation now, we’re going to see fluctuations in prices, supply and demand. This will give each side of the argument plenty of time to declare their hypothesis has been conclusively proven in their favour.
In the meantime we can just ignore it all and watch the rugby until the shit hits the fan, or hedge our bets and risk looking like a survivalist nutcase until it does.
I’d pick the latter any day.
Not sure where you guys are getting this “peak oilers want a kill off”. I have an active PO forum, reguarly email some of the more prominent names in POdom and can assure you nobody wants a ‘kill-off.’
You might be able to find the occassional whackjob who says that. The vast majority of “peak oilers” however don’t.
The only people who mention “kill-off” are the people who, for whatever reason, want to believe the crisis is engineered. Maybe a depletion led crisis is too straightforwared and they need something more complicated and shadowy so they can impress themselves and others. Who knows?
Question for Kev: as you know, the Romans, the Rapa Nui, the Norse Viking, all suffered 90% dieoffs as a result of depleting their energy source which was their topsoil. Do you think those dieoffs were actually engineered kill-offs by “THEM”? My gues is THEY had nothing to do with those dieoffs but I could certainly be mistaken.
Same question in regards to all the examples of energy scarcity led dieoffs in nature such as the yeast in a vat of sugar example I’m sure you’re familar with. ARe these actually kill-offs engineered by THEM? I’m guessing THEY can’t effect that sort of thing but I’m open to other hypothesis if you’ve got any.
Another thing I’d like to contribute as an Evil Primitivist Sympathizer: It may be that it’s possible to substitute fossil fuels for electricity generation, but my big concern is energy for food production. Fossil fuel energy provides both the fertilizers (either petroleum fertilizer or nitrogen fertilizer made with the Haber-Bosch Process, which uses natural gas or coal) and the machines that do the mass plowing, cultivating, and harvesting. And I’m certain that our bloghost is well-informed enough to know that the industrial food production and distribution system is the only to feed a world of 6G people, and this system does not do the fertility and health of the land that produces the food any favors at all.
I’m all for permaculture and what all else, but I’m not convinced that these environmentally sound methods will be able to support an urbanized world populated with significantly more than two billion people. In order to achieve that kind of scaling, you really have to utilize a totalitarian (so called because it seeks to convert all possible food in the world into human food) style of agriculture that takes from nature a lot more than it gives. And this system has evolved to the point where it has exhausted the world’s natural fertility and must have fossil fuels to continue. If alternative energy can fill in that gap somehow, I have yet to hear about it.
Matt,
Koolaid free zone here buddy. We know you’re in the business of peddling Peak Oil, so why don’t you address the information Kevin provided in the link from the story above:
https://cryptogon.com/?p=894
Amazing, I haven’t noticed any of that on your site. Why is that?
I’ve got another one that Kevin didn’t include:
https://cryptogon.com/?p=969
Try doing some original research and looking deeper than what corporations are telling you. If you can’t do that, please try to do better than “yeast.” HA
Julie,
None of those links eventually lead anywhere recounting real world experience of replacing a large fraction of existing hydrocarbon power with alternatives. It’s all plans and speeches. I’m not saying replacement is impossible, but I’ve not seen convincing detailed analysis. Regarding the refinery and grid stuff, I don’t see any evidence of a masterminded elite plan; just various bureaucratic bungling and short-term profit maximization.
Is my interpretation of the thesis as I stated above incorrect? I’m not totally dismissive of it, but the case has not been presented strongly on this page. The case for the unique criticality of fossil fuels and the lack of substitutes is pretty damn strong. There’s no debate that much energy is wasted, as is explained in some of the links, but that doesn’t change the implications of major hydrocarbon shortfalls.
The talk of elite plans for mass murder have me rolling my eyes until I see a very convincing case, I’m afraid. There is a power elite in the US and they do control a lot, but masterminding *global* suppression of cheap energy technology and a coordinated mass murder is beyond them.
Any mass death will be from genuine shortage driven famine and/or mob violence. All the *organized* mass murders I can think of were in circumstances where one large “tribe” benefited from murdering another. The German and Soviet peoples broadly and directly benefited by taking from and enslaving Jews and middle class people respectively. The power elite are much less than 1% of the population, not a tribe. There’s a slim chance they could orchestrate an organized mass murder in the US of blacks or hispanics, but nothing more. And if there were major energy shortages, whether “engineered” or real, I don’t think they could orchestrate anything at all. The power elite gets its power from corporate ownership. Real or fake, energy shortage would kill corporations. When stocks aren’t worth anything and money is worth less than organized muscle, there will be no power elite.
As evidenced by immigration policies, the power elite favors endless population growth, not population reduction.
Julie,
Regarding the link you provided:
The oil industry is scaling back their refinery plans because they know there is going to be less oil to refine.
Most of the “fixes” Kevin sited really aren’t fixes at all. A plastic micro wind turbine? I mean come on.
The giant tidal project would have been great. But guess what? When you have a population that is doubling every 30-to-40 years, whatever gains are made via projects like that are quickly wiped out by the increase in demand via population growth. When Kennedy proposed that tidal project, we had less than 125 million here in the US. and less than 3 billion worldwide. Today there is over 300 million here in the US and 6.5 billion on the planet.
The planet is a finite, closed sphere. At some point we reach the breaking point in terms of population. Whether that is at 6.5, 8, 9, 13 billion or whatever, who knows. But to deny that is as ridiculous as denying that oil depletes.
As far as what the corporations are telling me? They’re telling me there is nothing to worry about in terms of energy supply. As one example, here is a link to Exxon’s anti-Peak Oil ad:
http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/Corporate/OpEd_peakoil.pdf
The Big Oil fellows are telling you the same thing Kev is telling you which is that the crisis is “engineered.” The difference is in their choice of villian. Big Oil says it’s engineered by the likes of Hugo Chavez and other resource nationalists. Kevin says it’s engineered by THEM.
I’m saying no, it’s not engineered. It’s actually real, much like the energy crisis of the previous societies I mentioned up top. That’s not to say there isn’t gross manipulation of the financial system in an effort to keep the house of cards going on smoke and mirrors as long as possible. But that’s another discussions all together.
As far as “peddling”, Kevin makes money from cryptogon just like I make it from LATOC. And while I disagree him with him from time to time, I’m not about to say he’s peddling anything or that his financial interest has clouded his outlook. So try again.
I mostly agree with Matt, but I think it’s possible that Kevin has a valid point, of sorts. The crisis-point for which we are heading is inherent in the nature of our civilization, primitivists would say of civilization in general. But it’s entirely possible that the Powers That Be are deliberately bringing everything to a head around the time that petroleum and natural gas are peaking so that they can initiate some kind of plan to stay in control of as much as they can. Assuming that’s so, it may just turn out that they will get more than they bargained for with whatever clever little plan they have up their sleeve.
http://shop.showcaseantiques.com/images/items/BUYA117.jpg
HAHA Bert! That’s the one.
While the elites might take advantage of the situation (and even help perpetuate it, as they are certainly not interested in finding real solutions), Matt, kingkong, Geoff T and loveandlight are right on point, while Julie and Kevin are the ones blowing smoke up your ass on this issue.
@fallout11: Agreed.
HAHA fallout11, the same idiot who extols the wisdom of Chinese fascists:
https://cryptogon.com/?p=863#comment-8781
He also works for the enemy. Why don’t you tell everyone what organization you work for, fallout11? Since your comments are about as useful as a the sound a mosquito makes in a darkened room, I think it’s time people know.
And then this Mad Mouth guy. He has a section on his site about how aliens are going to intervene to save humanity from Peak Oil!
WTF? I say, WTF?!
From:
Mad Mouth’s site: http://www.markberger.com/
As for Matt, well, the day Matt agrees with me on this issue you know it’s the end of the world.
Mad Mouth, tell more about the aliens. HAHAHAHA!
I can understand where Kevin is coming from on this one, even if I don’t necessarily agree with his analysis or conclusions.
At the risk of sounding totally trite, the “meaning” of Peak Oil is indeed tricky. Does meaning primarily translate as “causes” or “implications” or “necessary responses” or “who benefits”? Everyone has their own ingrained biases when looking at issues, so the “meaning” one takes from Peak Oil really depends on your personal experiences and accumulated “knowledge” of the world and assumptions on how it works.
Just to chuck my 2 cents worth in, I think Peak Oil is one of the larger systemic symptoms of what the dominant economic system is bound to reap after 200-odd years of fossil-fuel-powered industrialism. Everything is premised on the basis of perpetual, never-ending growth (population inclusive), commodity substitution as a solution for scarcity, and mankind’s ability to dominate nature through “science”. Techno-utopianism was a strong cultural theme in the First World (OECD) and Second World (Leninist/Maoist blocs) from the 1950s to the 1970s. Now, things are starting to come to a (systemic) head, so we are increasingly exposed to the idea of techno-fixes to solve our exponentially expanding list of problems. (Oh how things slip, from creating utopia to a more modest goal of simply keeping the lights on.)
In the end, what this is all a reflection of is endemic short-termism. Really. The fossil fuels, metal ores, aquifers, soil, forests, fish, etc., are all finite, so using it all up over a 200-year binge is just really bad planning. Unless you just don’t give a fcuk about the future. Which our economic system doesn’t. So there you go–discounting the future is our society’s enduring gift.
As Kevin has said in the past, if the US and other rich countries had wanted to create a society based on more sustainable ways of organising things, they could have invested trillions in this instead of pumping the resources into arms, the military and coercive social controls (war on drugs, anyone?). But TPTB profit enormously from oil, cars, neurosis, industrial food and mass consumption. So why would they try to change things? No, I see lots of desperate measures aimed at retaining and increasing privilege and power for a few at the expense of the many. But I don’t see an engineered kill-off. The die-off is just the most likely long-term outcome of our economic system, so certain parties are just jockeying for the best positions to take advantage. As per usual.
One thing I would say about Kevin’s argument though, is that talking about “Peak Oilers” as though they are some kind of loosely homogenous group is really just a straw-man type fallacy. So in that sense I don’t see it as being particularly useful.
Sorry about the long post, people.
BTW Kevin, I’m shocked that you still have the power on and internet connection up, considering what I have been reading in the newspaper (sic).
Take care out there! These 100-year storms are coming every four months now…