Jim Rogers: ‘Sell Any Sterling You Might Have. It’s Finished’

January 21st, 2009

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

Sterling holders, consider reducing or eliminating your exposure to GBP denominated assets immediately.

—Cryptogon, 18 September 2007

A bit late, don’t you think, Jim???

I’m glad that some Cryptogon readers in Britain have defended themselves by turning their pounds into gold on BullionVault. Well done!

Via: Independent:

Fresh concerns about the British economy and fears for the stability of the UK’s financial system pushed sterling to new record lows against the dollar, euro and yen yesterday.

One of the world’s leading investors voiced the markets’ concerns. Jim Rogers, of the Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and co-founder of the Quantum fund with George Soros, told Bloomberg Television: “I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have. It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the UK.”

Mr Rogers added that the pound will fall below its record low of $1.0520 reached in February 1985. Given near parity with the euro, it raises the intriguing possibility that the pound/dollar/euro exchange rate could yield a “triple parity”.

…

In trading, the pound crashed as much as 4 per cent to lows of around $1.386, in its biggest one-day slide against the dollar since Britain fell out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

Neil MacKinnon, director and chief economist at ECU Group, said: “There’s a real danger of the decline in sterling becoming a full-blown crisis. The Government and the Bank of England have to change their tune on the pound pretty quickly.”


MySpace Celebrity and Katalyst Present the Presidential Pledge

January 21st, 2009


Britain Could be Facing National Bankruptcy

January 21st, 2009

Is Britain using the Euro yet? Nope. Not yet. Just wait…

I’m not so convinced that this is incompetence, like the article implies. National currencies are the enemy. And Gordon Brown is such a tool (yes, tool, not fool). What do you expect from a crook who sold half of the British people’s public treasure at the bottom of the market?

Via: Telegraph:

They don’t know what they’re doing, do they? With every step taken by the Government as it tries frantically to prop up the British banking system, this central truth becomes ever more obvious.

Yesterday marked a new low for all involved, even by the standards of this crisis. Britons woke to news of the enormity of the fresh horrors in store. Despite all the sophistry and outdated boom-era terminology from experts, I think a far greater number of people than is imagined grasp at root what is happening here.

The country stands on the precipice. We are at risk of utter humiliation, of London becoming a Reykjavik on Thames and Britain going under. Thanks to the arrogance, hubristic strutting and serial incompetence of the Government and a group of bankers, the possibility of national bankruptcy is not unrealistic.

The political impact will be seismic; anger will rage. The haunted looks on the faces of those in supporting roles, such as the Chancellor, suggest they have worked out that a tragedy is unfolding here. Gordon Brown is engaged no longer in a standard battle for re-election; instead he is fighting to avoid going down in history disgraced completely.

This catastrophe happened on his watch, no matter how much he now opportunistically beats up on bankers. He turned on the fountain of cheap money and encouraged the country to swim in it. House prices rose, debt went through the roof and the illusion won elections. Throughout, Brown boasted of the beauty of his regulatory structure, when those in charge of it were failing to ask the most basic questions of financial institutions. The same bankers Brown now claims to be angry with, he once wooed, travelling to the City to give speeches praising their “financial innovation”.

Does the Prime Minister realise the likely implications when the country joins the dots? He has never been wild on shouldering blame, so I doubt it. But Brown is a historian. He should know that when a nation has put all its chips on red and the ball lands on black, the person who made the call is responsible. Neville Chamberlain discovered this in May 1940 with the German invasion of France.

We’re some way from a similar event. But do not underestimate the gravity of the emergency and potential for disgrace.

The Government’s bail-out of the banks in October with £37 billion of taxpayers’ money was supposed to have “saved the world”, according to the PM, but now it is clear that it has not even saved the banks. Our money kept the show on the road for only three months.

As the Liberal Democrats’ Treasury spokesman Vince Cable asks: where has the £37 billion gone? The answer, as Cable knows, is that it has disappeared down the plug hole.

It is finally dawning on the Government that the liabilities of the British banks grew to be so vast in the boom years that they now eclipse the entire economy. Unfortunately, the Treasury is pledged to honour those
liabilities because it has guaranteed not to let a British bank go down. RBS has liabilities of £1.8 trillion, three times annual UK government spending, against assets of £1.9 trillion. But after the events of the past year, I wager most taxpayers will believe the true picture is worse.

Meanwhile, the assets are falling in value. This matters, because post-nationalisation these liabilities are now yours and
mine.

And they come piled on top of the rocketing national debt, charitably put at £630 billion, or 43 per cent of GDP. The true figure is much higher because the Government has used off-balance sheet accounting to hide commitments such as PFI projects.

Add to that record consumer indebtedness and Britain becomes extremely vulnerable. The markets have worked this out ahead of the politicians, as usual, and are wondering what to do next. If they decide our nation is a basket case, they will make it so.

The PM and the Chancellor , both looking a year older every day, tell us that for their next trick they will buy more bank shares, create a giant insurance scheme for bad debt, pledge to honour liabilities without limit, cross their fingers and hope it all works. The phrase “bottomless pit” springs to mind for a reason: that is what they have designed.

In this gloom, the Prime Minister has but one slender hope: that somehow, by force of personality, the new President Obama engineers a rapid American recovery restoring global confidence, energising the markets and making us all forget this bad dream.

Obama is talented but he is not a magician. Instead, Gordon Brown’s nightmare, in which we are all trapped, is going to get much worse.


Obama to Defend Telco Spy Immunity

January 20th, 2009

Via: Wired:

The incoming Obama administration will vigorously defend congressional legislation immunizing U.S. telecommunication companies from lawsuits about their participation in the Bush administration’s domestic spy program.

That was the assessment Thursday by Eric Holder, President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for attorney general, who made the statement during his confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee. A court challenge questioning the legality of the legislation is pending in U.S. District Court in San Francisco — where the judge in the case wanted to know what the Obama administration’s position was.

“The duty of the Justice Department is to defend statutes that have been passed by Congress,” Holder told Sen. Orin Hatch (R-Utah), who asked whether the Obama administration would continue the legal fight to uphold the legislation that the Electronic Frontier Foundation is seeking to overturn.

“Unless there are compelling reasons, I don’t think we would reverse course,” Holder added.

At a San Francisco hearing in EFF’s case last month, U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker wondered aloud whether the incoming Obama administration would continue to defend the legislation, which passed in July. Obama opposed immunity but voted for it because it was included in a new spy bill that gave the Bush administration broad warrantless-surveillance powers.


Gaza ‘Looks Like Earthquake Zone’

January 20th, 2009

Via: BBC:

The worst-hit areas in the Gaza Strip after Israel’s three-week offensive look as if they have been hit by a strong earthquake, aid agencies say.

Correspondents in Gaza City say entire neighbourhoods have been flattened and bodies are still being recovered.

The UN says it is still sheltering at least 35,000 Palestinians while 400,000 people are without running water.

Israel says it will allow 143 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid into Gaza plus 60,000 litres of fuel.

Israel launched its offensive on 27 December to stop Hamas militants firing rockets into Israel.

Palestinian medical sources say at least 1,300 Palestinians were killed and 5,500 injured during the conflict. Thirteen Israelis were killed.


More Americans Joining Military as Jobs Dwindle

January 20th, 2009

Via: New York Times:

The last fiscal year was a banner one for the military, with all active-duty and reserve forces meeting or exceeding their recruitment goals for the first time since 2004, the year that violence in Iraq intensified drastically, Pentagon officials said.

And the trend seems to be accelerating. The Army exceeded its targets each month for October, November and December — the first quarter of the new fiscal year — bringing in 21,443 new soldiers on active duty and in the reserves. December figures were released last week.

Recruiters also report that more people are inquiring about joining the military, a trend that could further bolster the ranks. Of the four armed services, the Army has faced the toughest recruiting challenge in recent years because of high casualty rates in Iraq and long deployments overseas. Recruitment is also strong for the Army National Guard, according to Pentagon figures. The Guard tends to draw older people.

“When the economy slackens and unemployment rises and jobs become more scarce in civilian society, recruiting is less challenging,” said Curtis Gilroy, the director of accession policy for the Department of Defense.


Cost to Insure Against U.S. Default on Debt at Record High

January 20th, 2009

Via: Reuters:

The price investors pay to insure themselves against the U.S. government defaulting on its debt jumped to a record high on Monday, according to data provider CMA DataVision.

Five-year credit default swaps on U.S. Treasuries widened to 69.5 basis points from 61.1 basis points at the New York close on Friday, CMA DataVision said.

That means investors were paying $69,500 a year to insure against default on $10 million worth of bonds.


The Goldman Sachs Long Call on Oil

January 20th, 2009

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

People are hammering my inbox with this story.

I try to ignore anything that oozes out of GS. The fact that their analysis is even in the same ballpark as mine makes me wonder if my original fundamental analysis was deeply flawed. My tactical/technical analysis certainly was, as my initial nibble on oil is down something like 15%.

I am not sweating this for three reasons:

1. If you knew the size of my position, you’d laugh your tits off. It’s not much.

2. I’m slowly accumulating.

3. I smell a rat.

I wouldn’t trust a GS call any further than I could throw it, and I wouldn’t piss on GS if it was on fire. I’m holding my long oil position anyway, despite what those f*&%$#@ think/say/do. A major part of my interest in buying oil was GSs’ call (back in November 2008) that there wasn’t much upside potential for oil. Have they been loading up long as they shilled it lower?

I’ll be buggered if I know.

Here’s what I do know: Below $30 I’ll start to look at taking a non-trivial long position in oil, assuming a total financial collapse/nuclear war/Mad Max situation hasn’t broken out by then…

Just look at the contango situation… * shaking head * This is crazy. I don’t know what is going to happen, but something is up. Unfortunately, this will only make sense in hindsight; in the aftermath of whatever ______ (fill in the blank) is planned.

Again, it’s VERY counter intuitive to be buying a commodity that’s going lower, day after day, but I smell a rat here. The same rat that I smelled, when oil was $140, is present down here. I didn’t (and don’t) have the stones to short oil at any price. But under $40??? Come on. It’s hard for me to resist the temptation to stock up down here.

If anyone can think of a better medium to long term bet than buying oil, by all means, let us in on it.

And from a foilhead perspective: For the masters of the universe, it’s a VERY simple matter to plunge the world into an energy related crisis overnight. The Saudis could do it by staging a show at their Ras Tanura facility, arguably the most strategic energy facility in the world. One facility destroyed or damaged and oil gaps higher. Hey, if you want to keep overnighting your Lamborghini 6,500 miles to Britain for routine maintenance… Well, let’s just say that you’ve got to break a few eggs if you want to make an omelet.

Friendly reminder: This is a trading related post. If you want to comment, please make sure that the comment is related to oil, the financial markets, etc.

Via: Bloomberg:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie said he expects a “swift and violent rebound” in energy prices in the second half of the year.

Oil prices may have reached their lowest point already, after falling to $32.40 in mid-December, and are expected to rise to $65 by the end of this year, the analyst said. There is scope for a “new bull market” in oil, Currie said.

World oil demand is likely to fall by about 1.6 million barrels a day this year, the Goldman analyst said today at a conference in London. That’s bigger than the reduction expected by the International Energy Agency, which last week forecast a decrease of about 500,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent, this year.

A recent tactic of using supertankers to store crude oil to take advantage of higher prices later this year is “difficult” to profit from and is “near the end of this process” anyway, the Goldman analyst said.

New York crude futures for delivery in December, trading near $56 a barrel, currently cost some $15 a barrel more than March futures, a market situation known as contango, where prices are higher for later delivery.

The contango is likely to flatten as supply cuts by OPEC and other producers take effect, reducing the availability of oil for immediate delivery, Currie said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries started another round of supply cutbacks at the start of this month. The group’s compliance with its overall efforts to cut production will probably peak at 75 percent, or a reduction of about 3 million barrels a day out of an announced aim of 4.2 million barrels a day, Goldman Sachs said.

In several steps, 10 OPEC members have pledged to reduce production to 24.845 million barrels a day, a cut of 4.2 million barrels a day from September’s level.

Morgan Stanley hired an oil tanker to store crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, joining Citigroup Inc. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc in trying to profit from the contango, two shipbrokers said in reports earlier today.


Obama’s Inauguration Has Been Financed Partially by Bailed-Out Wall Street Executives

January 20th, 2009

Change.

Via: ABC:

The country is in the middle of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, which isn’t stopping rich donors and the government from spending $170 million, or more, on the inauguration of Barack Obama.

…

But there are plenty of rich donors willing to pick up the tab.

“They are not the $20 and $50 donors who helped propel Obama through Election Day,” said Massie Ritsch, communications director for the Center for Responsive Politics. “These are people giving mostly $50,000 apiece. They tend to be corporate executives, celebrities, the elite of the elite.”

The biggest group of donors were none other than the recently bailed-out Wall Street executives and employees.

“The finance sector is well represented, despite its recent troubles,” Ritsch said. “Those who worked in finance still managed to pull together nearly $7 million for the inauguration.”

The donors will get some of the best seats in the house for the inauguration, as well as admittance to some of the best balls and other events.


Spain Downgraded by S&P

January 19th, 2009

Via: Bloomberg:

Spain had its AAA sovereign credit rating removed by Standard & Poor’s in the second downgrade of a euro-region government in five days, as the country’s first recession in 15 years swelled the budget deficit.

The risk of losses on Spanish government debt rose to a record today, credit-default swaps showed, after S&P lowered the rating one step to AA+ and assigned it a “stable” outlook. It was S&P’s first reduction in Spain’s rating and puts it on the same level as Belgium and Hong Kong.

The cost of economic stimulus packages and bank bailouts is boosting budget deficits around the euro-region, fueling concern governments will have difficulty paying their debt. S&P cut Greece’s rating one step to A- on Jan. 14. A day earlier, it threatened to downgrade Portugal’s debt. S&P also reduced the outlook on Ireland’s rating to negative from stable.

“The only country that should be able to keep its AAA rating is Germany,” said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist in Madrid at Intermoney SA, Spain’s largest bond dealer. “There should be a question mark over the rest.”

Spain’s economy, whose growth outpaced the euro region for more than a decade, entered a recession in the second half of last year as the credit crisis deepened the collapse of a debt- fueled housing boom, sending the unemployment rate to the highest in Europe. The government has announced about 90 billion euros ($119 billion) of stimulus measures as well as steps to support banks amid a decline in tax revenue.


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