Drug Wars, Mexico as Failed State: Homeland Security Contingency Plan to Use U.S. Military Along Border with Mexico

January 10th, 2009

Via: IHT:

The soaring level of violence in Mexico resulting from the drug wars there has led the United States to develop plans for a “surge” of civilian and perhaps even military law enforcement should the bloodshed spread across the border, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Wednesday.

Chertoff said the criminal activity in Mexico, which has caused more than 5,300 deaths in the last year, had long troubled American authorities. But it reached a point last summer, he said, where he ordered specific plans to confront in this country the kind of shootouts and other mayhem that in Mexico have killed members of warring drug cartels, law enforcement officials and bystanders, often not far from the border.

“We completed a contingency plan for border violence, so if we did get a significant spillover, we have a surge ? if I may use that word ? capability to bring in not only our own assets but even to work with” the Defense Department, Chertoff said in a telephone interview.

Officials of the Homeland Security Department said the plan called for aircraft, armored vehicles and special teams to converge on border trouble spots, with the size of the force depending on the scale of the problem. Military forces would be called upon if civilian agencies like the Border Patrol and local law enforcement were overwhelmed, but the officials said military involvement was considered unlikely.

Chertoff has expressed concern in recent months about the violence in Mexico, but the contingency plan has not been publicly debated, and the department has made no announcement of it. Department officials said Chertoff had mentioned it only in passing.

—

A very closely related story is, Among Top U.S. Fears: A Failed Mexican State:

What do Pakistan and Mexico have in common? They figure in the nightmares of U.S. military planners trying to peer into the future and identify the next big threats.

The two countries are mentioned in the same breath in a just-published study by the United States Joint Forces Command, whose jobs include providing an annual look into the future to prevent the U.S. military from being caught off guard by unexpected developments.

“In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” says the study – called Joint Operating Environment 2008 – in a chapter on “weak and failing states.” Such states, it says, usually pose chronic, long-term problems that can be managed over time.

But the little-studied phenomenon of “rapid collapse,” according to the study, “usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems.” Think Yugoslavia and its disintegration in 1990 into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities and bloodshed on a horrific scale.

Nuclear-armed Pakistan, where Al Qaeda has established safe havens in the rugged regions bordering Afghanistan, is a regular feature in dire warnings. Thomas Fingar, who retired as the chief U.S. intelligence analyst in December, termed Pakistan “one of the single most challenging places on the planet.”

This is fairly routine language for Pakistan, but not for Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile, or 3,200-kilometer, border with the United States.

Mexico’s mention beside Pakistan in a study by an organization as weighty as the Joint Forces Command, which controls almost all conventional forces based in the continental United States, speaks volumes about growing concern over what is happening south of the U.S. border.

Research Credit: KL


UK: Face Scanners to be Installed in Schools

January 10th, 2009

Via: Telegraph:

Schools could be fitted with futuristic face scanners which screen pupils’ faces with an invisible infra-red light as they attempt to enter the building to keep out strangers.

The system, which is being trialled in a UK school next week, can also be used to allow children to take out library books and buy their lunch.

It is among a host of high-tech security measures introduced in schools in a bid to keep pupils safe.

Some schools have brought in fingerprint and eye scanners, while others are planning to put radio transponder chips in pupils’ uniforms to keep tabs on them.

But there are fears the technology breaches children’s civil liberties.

One school installed an iris scanner in 2003 but removed it a year later after it failed to recognise some students and led to lengthy queues.

Aurora, a Northampton-based biometric firm, will exhibit its new “face recognition software” at an education technology conference in London next week.

The company has developed a prototype aimed at schools for “ultra fast student registration, easy cashless catering and secure access control”.

Each system – costing around £1,000 – can verify a face in 1.5 seconds and claims to be more accurate at identifying people than a human.

Patrick Usher, the company’s technical director, told the Times Educational Supplement that adapting the technology for children was a challenge as their faces changed quicker than adults.

John Dunford, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said the system would be welcomed if it cut bureaucracy – but he said: “You always seem to get queues behind security devices”.

Guidance issued in 2007 gives headteachers permission to collect pupils’ biometric data to use when taking the register, paying for lunch or using the library.

But civil liberties campaigners are concerned that the data could be given to police or the Government without parents’ knowledge – or stolen by identity thieves.

“These systems store fingerprint templates, which are used by the police. It leaves children open to identity fraud later on,” said the pressure group Leave Them Kids Alone.


Bloomberg on U.S. Economy: “Free-Fall”

January 10th, 2009

Via: Bloomberg:

The U.S. lost more jobs in 2008 than any year since 1945 as employers fired another 524,000 people in December, indicating a free-fall in the economy just days before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

“Consumers are now going to get more and more scared at the prospect of losing their job,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. Obama’s proposed fiscal stimulus “needs to be big, needs to be bold, needs to be swift. If they can do something quickly we can limit the hemorrhage by mid-year.”

The Labor Department reported that the nation lost 2.589 million jobs in 2008, with the unemployment rate climbing more than economists forecast, to a 15-year high of 7.2 percent in December.

Today’s figures will intensify pressure on U.S. lawmakers to speed Obama’s recovery program, which may exceed $775 billion, through Congress in an effort to save or create 3 million jobs. They also underscore the urgency of the Federal Reserve’s $200 billion initiative to restart consumer financing markets that’s scheduled to begin next month.

The outlook for jobs this year is no brighter as retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Macy’s Inc. slash profit forecasts and manufacturers including Alcoa Inc. cut output and staff.


Bush and Obama Teams Coordinating Theft of Additional Billions for Bankers

January 10th, 2009

Change we can believe in.

Via: Washington Post:

Senior Bush administration officials are preparing to ask lawmakers for the second half of the $700 billion financial rescue package despite intense opposition in Congress and then use a presidential veto if the request is voted down, sources familiar with the matter said.

The initiative, which is being coordinated with President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team, may be taken within days, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because no announcement has been made. But it remains unclear who would wield any veto. While Obama transition officials prefer that current administration issue it, the White House is declining to address that question.

Democratic Senate aides were notified in a meeting this afternoon that the request could come as soon as this weekend and that a vote could be held as soon as next week, congressional sources said.

Under the emergency rescue legislation approved by Congress in October, the administration must inform lawmakers that it wants access to the second installment of $350 billion. Unless Congress passes a resolution rejecting the request within 15 days, the Treasury can begin to tap the funds. If Congress does turn down the request, the president could veto the resolution and then the Treasury could proceed.

…

Government sources say a majority of lawmakers on Capitol Hill now do not support handing over more rescue funds to either administration.


California May Issue IOUs

January 9th, 2009

Via: Los Angeles Times:

State officials on Tuesday braced for the possibility of delaying tax refunds to millions of Californians, along with student grants and payments to vendors, as the latest round of budget negotiations between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators collapsed.

With little more than a month’s worth of cash left in the state treasury, the governor and lawmakers have been unable to agree on how to erase a budget gap projected to reach $41.6 billion by the middle of next year. Democrats announced Tuesday that two weeks of discussions had ended in an impasse and sent Schwarzenegger the $18-billion fiscal package they passed last month. The governor vetoed it, as he had promised to do.

State Controller John Chiang has said that as early as Feb. 1, his office may begin issuing promissory notes if lawmakers have not resolved the budget crisis. The state has done this only once before since the Great Depression — in 1992.

“We have not made any decision about deferring payments or using IOUs, but they are possibilities if the governor and Legislature don’t come to some agreement soon,” Chiang spokeswoman Hallye Jordan said Tuesday.

Under the state Constitution, schools and bondholders get first rights to any cash in the state’s coffers.

Among the first to get IOUs instead of payments would be business and individual taxpayers who are expecting refunds, local governments and recipients of grants from the California Student Aid Commission. Last year, more than 10 million taxpayers received state refunds totaling $8 billion.


OIL WHACKED LOWER AGAIN

January 9th, 2009

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

That oil trade I did is solidly in the red now, but I am taking the long term view on this one.

IT’S OIL.

Unlike trying to pick bottoms on companies (which have the potential to go bankrupt), oil is not going away. As both demand and prices collapse, energy producers are going to falter. Investment in infrastructure and exploration will be curtailed…

Let it keep going down. I’ll buy my next load at $30 if it gets there.

It is very counter intuitive to buy a thing that’s going down.

Nibble at it. Average in slowly. Diversify.

Look around. Just about everything you see is made out of oil.

For whatever it’s worth, diversification to me means, my family’s small farm, bulk food, livestock, heirloom seeds, tools, cash, physical gold, food commodities (DBA) and now a little bit of oil (USO).

Via: Bloomberg:

Crude oil fell below $40 a barrel in New York after a report showing that the U.S. unemployment rate surged in December raised concern demand will drop faster than OPEC makes production cuts.

Oil dropped as much as 5.6 percent after the government said the world’s biggest energy-consuming country lost 2.589 million jobs last year, the most since 1945. U.S. supplies have climbed in 13 of the past 15 weeks as the economy slowed, according to the Energy Department. Prices in New York touched $32.40 in December because of rising stockpiles and lower demand.

“We are going to test the December lows because the numbers we see are horrible,” said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors, an energy-consultant in Houston. “It seemed that Russia, China, India and Brazil were immune to the economic problems here, but that’s no longer the case.”

Crude oil for February delivery fell $2.16, or 5.2 percent, to $39.54 a barrel at 11:08 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil is heading for a 15 percent decline this week after gaining 23 percent the week before, the most since August 1986.

The U.S. jobless rate rose more than forecast to 7.2 percent last month, a 15-year high, from 6.8 percent, according to a Labor Department report today in Washington.


U.S. Unemployment Highest in Sixteen Years

January 9th, 2009

The real unemployment rate is now somewhere between 14% to 21%.

Via: Reuters:

The U.S. unemployment rate surged to its highest level in nearly 16 years in December as a deepening year-long recession forced companies to slash payrolls by more than half a million jobs.

An accelerating pace of job losses towards the end of the year pointed to a bleak start for 2009 and increases chances the economic downturn could become the longest since the 1930s.

The Labour Department said on Friday the jobless rate jumped to 7.2 percent, the highest level since January 1993, from 6.8 percent in November. Economists had expected a smaller rise to 7 percent.

The surge reflected another month of deep job losses. Employers cut nonfarm payrolls by 524,000 in December, a bit less than analysts had predicted, but jobs losses for October and November were much greater than estimated earlier.

For the year as a whole, the economy shed 2.6 million jobs, the largest decline since a 2.75 million drop in 1945.


European Economies Collapsing

January 9th, 2009

Via: Telegraph:

German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain’s unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe’s economy since the Second World War.

…

Spain is now in company at last with Germany, where exports plummeted 10.6pc in November. The German economy is highly-geared to the global industrial cycle and is suddenly facing a vicious downturn as demand for machinery slumps in China, Russia, the Mid-East, and equally important as car sales crash in Italy, Spain, and Britain. The country’s trade surplus has shrivelled by a third in one month.

“Industry is in free-fall,” said Dirk Schumacher, from Goldman Sachs. Germany’s industrial orders have plummeted 27pc year-on-year, heralding a drastic economic contraction this year. Berlin is mulling a €100bn fund to rescue companies in distress, on top of its €50bn Keynesian blitz over two years. The fiscal package includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition has backed away from plans to `tough out’ the recession after a fierce criticism from German economists and industrial leaders.

Berlin is now preparing the part-nationalisation of Commerzbank by taking a 25pc stake in exchange for a €10bn infusion of capital, helping to boost the bank’s capital ratio as it digests Dresdner Bank. Commerzbank shares fell 14pc. France is also drawing up plans for a fresh €10.5bn capital injection for its banks.

Jacques Cailloux, from the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the pace of contraction in Europe is now disturbingly close to levels seen in the Great Depression. The eurozone bloc shrank by 3pc in 1930, 5pc in 1931, and 4pc in 1932.

By this count, 2009 could easily match 1930. The latest data points to 3pc contraction rate since late last year, with no improvement in sight. “Even the worst case scenarios people talked about now look too optimistic. But at least the authorities have done enough to prevent the vicious downward spiral from accelerating. We’ve haven’t seen the sort of run on bank deposits or mass bankruptices that occurred in the 1930s. That is crucial,” he said.


BOEING ORDERS PLUMMET BY 53%

January 9th, 2009

Via: Financial Times:

Boeing said yesterday its net new commercial aircraft orders had fallen by 53 per cent last year to 662, from the record 1,413 achieved in 2007. Boeing had previously achieved three record years with net new orders of 1,044 in 2006 and 1,002 in 2005.

It said yesterday the 2008 orders total was the eighth highest in its history, but demand from airlines around the world is falling fast amid the deepening recession and the credit crunch, and orders are expected to plunge again this year.


Merrill Lynch Says Rich Turning to Gold Bars

January 9th, 2009

The rich aren’t the only ones. * snort *

Via: Telegraph:

Merrill Lynch has revealed that some of its richest clients are so alarmed by the state of the financial system and signs of political instability around the world that they are now insisting on the purchase of gold bars, shunning derivatives or “paper” proxies.

Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer for the US bank, said there has been a remarkable change in sentiment. “People are genuinely worried about what the world is going to look like in 2009. It is amazing how many clients want physical gold, not ETFs,” he said, referring to exchange trade funds listed in London, New York, and other bourses.

“They are so worried they want a portable asset in their house. I never thought I would be getting calls from clients saying they want a box of krugerrands,” he said.


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