Data Revision Reveals Almost Half of NYMEX Crude Oil Futures and Options Positions Are Held By Speculators

August 7th, 2008

Mmm hmm.

Via: Reuters:

A quiet data revision that has boosted by nearly 25 percent the number of oil futures contracts U.S. regulators think are held by speculators is raising eyebrows in the energy trading community.

The revision means that speculators controlled 48 percent of the open interest in NYMEX crude oil futures and options as of July 15, compared with just over 38 percent under the previous classification.

“That’s huge when you look at the numbers,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in Chicago.

“It changes the whole way you look at the recent moves in this market.”

The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission announced on July 18 that it was reclassifying some trading positions that it had reported as commercial hedging positions as noncommercial speculative positions.

The data revision converted approximately 327,000 long and 330,000 short NYMEX crude oil futures and options positions into mostly spreading positions held by speculators.

The big shift is all the more surprising, oil traders and analysts said, since the CFTC apparently reclassified only one unidentified oil trader at the same time as the data revision.

“There may have been multiple ‘positions’ which were reclassified … but they all appear to have been held by just one trader, and this was a very special trader, with an enormous concentration of positions in crude oil amounting to perhaps 460 million barrels, and not much interest in anything else,” noted John Kemp of RBS Sempra Commodities.

A CFTC spokeswoman declined to elaborate on the move or to identify the reclassified trader.

She also said the agency would not confirm whether a single trader or multiple traders had been reclassified.

“This reclassification issue highlights the fact that improvements are still needed in the area of data collection and that the agency does not yet have the comprehensive data we need to make any declarative statements about the overall role of speculators in commodity markets,” said Democratic CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton.

SEMGROUP LINK?

The reclassification comes amid the collapse of energy trader SemGroup LP, which filed for bankruptcy on July 22 after suffering $3.2 billion in losses on oil futures and derivatives.

SemGroup has blamed its collapse on unauthorized speculative oil trading by its co-founder and former chief executive, according to a court filing by a SemGroup lender.

The SemGroup collapse coincided with a sharp fall in oil futures from their peak above $147 a barrel in mid-July. However, a person familiar with SemGroup’s trading position said Monday the trader’s position was not concentrated in any one month and was more focused on intermonth spread positions.

“This was no Amaranth or Motherrock,” said the person familiar with SemGroup’s futures trading book, referring to two energy hedge funds whose multibillion dollar failures roiled futures markets.

SemGroup began the process of transferring its NYMEX trading book to Barclays Plc (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on July 11 after drawing down a $54 million line of credit to place a deposit with the British bank, according to bankruptcy court testimony.

SemGroup completed the transfer of its trading book to Barclays on July 16.

The transfer of SemGroup’s NYMEX trading position was instigated by the exchange itself, according to a source familiar with the NYMEX’s activities.

SemGroup’s financial difficulties were first disclosed by its publicly traded subsidiary SemGroup Energy Partners LP (SGLP.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on July 17, three days after its parent hired The Blackstone Group (BX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to advise it on restructuring and two days after a conference call with its lenders where it told them it had run out of cash.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Justice Department are investigating SemGroup Energy Partners’ disclosure practices.

Research Credit: DAVID100


China Tightens Currency Controls to Curb Inflows

August 7th, 2008

There’s still a lot of cash looking for a place to hide.

Via: AP:

China has issued new controls on transfers of foreign currencies, moving to contain inflationary pressures by curbing the speculative inflows, or so-called hot money, that has been flooding into the country in recent years.

The new rules, issued late Wednesday with immediate effect, call for penalties of up to 30 percent of the capital involved in any unauthorized inward or outward foreign currency transfers. They give authorities stronger control over such transactions and expand reporting requirements for financial institutions.

“As China’s economy becomes more internationalized and the movement of international capital flows accelerates, there is a need to improve the system and oversight of multinational capital movements,” the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, said in a statement posted on its Web site.

Economists say that billions of dollars in speculative money have flowed into the country, seeking higher returns as the value of the Chinese currency has risen against the U.S. dollar. Such investments, often in real estate or stocks, inflate the money supply, adding to pressure for prices to rise at a time when inflation is already at 12-year highs.


Middle Ear Myoclonus (Update)

August 7th, 2008

I’ve managed to resolve this condition without medical intervention. The story is on the original post, if you’re curious.

Posted in Announcements, Health | Top Of Page | Comments Off on Middle Ear Myoclonus (Update)

July Earnings

August 7th, 2008

July was the best month for Cryptogon and Farmlet earnings, ever. The total, from all sources, came to $2865.06.

In June’s earnings statement, I indicated that I’d like to see each regular reader contribute the equivalent of US$5 per year. That’s because a handful of very generous Cryptogon readers are shouldering most of the financial burden of keeping this resource up and available to all. I wanted to try to even out the load. Several people took me up to the challenge. Some sent exactly $5, while others sent much more. And then, near the end of July, core contributor Dagobaz—one of the people who was already doing very heavy lifting around here—sent $1001. All of this made for a very successful month.

We received contributions in seven different currencies!

U.S. Dollars
Canadian Dollars
Australian Dollars
New Zealand Dollars
Japanese Yen
British Pounds
Euros

Thanks to all cash contributors!

Thanks also to Cryptogon readers who remembered to begin their Amazon sessions via Cryptogon. It all adds up. Special thanks to the person who ordered books from Amazon Canada. That’s the first time that anyone has ever ordered anything on Amazon.ca via Cryptogon.

Thanks to the owners of Centenary Memorial Gardens and To Heal for signing up for hosting with BlueHost.

Cryptogon has been hosted by BlueHost since 2005. Farmlet has run on the same account since 2006. BlueHost represents an unbelievable value when it comes to shared hosting. I just bought two more years worth of hosting with them.

Thanks to Cryptogon’s Nitro-Pak shoppers.

Finally, thanks to those of you who use BullionVault for your professional gold vaulting needs.


Who Says Good Nutrition Means Animal Fats? Weston A. Price

August 6th, 2008

WAPF given fair treatment by the Washington Post???

Incredible, but true.

Via: Washington Post:

Fallon’s definition of “real” is vastly different from what many Americans who consider themselves health-conscious might describe. She advocates butter on bread “so thick you can see teeth marks in it,” plenty of meat and unpasteurized, or raw, milk.

Those are foods recommended by Price, a Cleveland dentist who traveled the world studying primitive diets. His 1939 book, “Nutrition and Physical Degeneration,” concluded that a diet high in the vitamins found in animal fats and untouched by “modern” innovations such as refined flour, sugar and chemically preserved foods was the key to preventing chronic disease and tooth decay.

Such ideas have been considered heretical by modern American public health policy that promotes a low-fat, low-sodium diet. But increasing interest in sustainable, local foods, combined with industrial health scares such as the recent salmonella outbreak, has put the spotlight on the foundation’s unorthodox ideas about healthful eating. Its membership is nearly 10,500 strong, and growing at a 10 percent clip each year. There are more than 350 U.S. chapters, plus international groups from Australia to Norway.

For years, these ideas were “as fringe as you could get, as politically incorrect as you could get,” says Fallon, 60. “All of a sudden, people are listening.”

That new audience is surprisingly broad. Some adherents are interested exclusively in nutrition. But more and more, the concept of returning to traditional foodways is pulling people in. New members include the expected “back to the land” types, for whom the foundation’s message provides yet another reason to support small organic farms, and those who oppose the government’s attempt to limit the availability of foods such as raw milk.

“This idea of real food crosses all demographics: red states, blue states, seculars, environmentalists, men, women and children,” says Nina Planck, a Weston A. Price member and the author of “Real Food: What to Eat and Why.” “What’s gone wrong with farm policy is something conservatives and liberals can all agree on.”

Research Credit: scholar33


Biometric Passport Chips Can be Cloned in an Hour

August 6th, 2008

Via: Guardian:

New microchipped passports designed to protect against identity theft by terrorists and criminals can easily be faked, it was claimed today.

Tests showed that personal information could be cloned and manipulated within an hour before being inserted into new chips, the Times reported.

The paper said it had exposed “security flaws” in the passport system by asking a researcher to clone the chips on two British passports and implant digital images of Osama bin Laden and a suicide bomber. The altered chips were then passed as genuine by reader software used by the UN agency that sets the standards for such e-passports.

The tests showed that bogus biometrics could be inserted in fake or blank passports, the Times alleged, saying the flaws also undermined assertions that 3,000 blank passports stolen last week could not be forged.

The identity and passport service at the Home Office remained confident, however, that the British biometric passport was “one of the most secure passports available”, saying no one had been able to demonstrate they could modify or change information contained in a chip, and that if they did, it would be obvious to the reader.

A spokesman added: “Continuing investment in biometric technology and enhanced security measures will help ensure that passport security is maintained now and in the future.”


Arms Market in Pakistan

August 6th, 2008

This video is over a year old, but I just came across it today. These people are fabricating semi automatic and automatic weapons by hand! I’ve never seen anything like this.

Take a look:


Lessig: There Is Going To Be An i-9/11 And An i-Patriot Act

August 6th, 2008

Via Infowars:

Amazing revelations have emerged concerning already existing government plans to overhaul the way the internet functions in order to apply much greater restrictions and control over the web.

Lawrence Lessig, a respected Law Professor from Stanford University told an audience at this years Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference in Half Moon Bay, California, that “There’s going to be an i-9/11 event” which will act as a catalyst for a radical reworking of the law pertaining to the internet.

Lessig also revealed that he had learned, during a dinner with former government Counter Terrorism Czar Richard Clarke, that there is already in existence a cyber equivalent of the Patriot Act, an “i-Patriot Act” if you will, and that the Justice Department is waiting for a cyber terrorism event in order to implement its provisions.

During a group panel segment titled “2018: Life on the Net”, Lessig stated:

There’s going to be an i-9/11 event. Which doesn’t necessarily mean an Al Qaeda attack, it means an event where the instability or the insecurity of the internet becomes manifest during a malicious event which then inspires the government into a response. You’ve got to remember that after 9/11 the government drew up the Patriot Act within 20 days and it was passed.

The Patriot Act is huge and I remember someone asking a Justice Department official how did they write such a large statute so quickly, and of course the answer was that it has been sitting in the drawers of the Justice Department for the last 20 years waiting for the event where they would pull it out.

Of course, the Patriot Act is filled with all sorts of insanity about changing the way civil rights are protected, or not protected in this instance. So I was having dinner with Richard Clarke and I asked him if there is an equivalent, is there an i-Patriot Act just sitting waiting for some substantial event as an excuse to radically change the way the internet works. He said “of course there is”.


Morgan Stanley Freezing Home-Equity Credit Withdrawals

August 6th, 2008

The ATM is closed.

Via: Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, told thousands of clients this week that they won’t be allowed to withdraw money on their home-equity credit lines, said a person familiar with the situation.

Most of the clients had properties that have lost value, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the information isn’t public. The New York-based investment bank will review home-equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, monthly from now on, the person said yesterday.

Wall Street firms including Morgan Stanley are ratcheting back on risks after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and ensuing credit contraction saddled banks and brokerages with almost $500 billion of writedowns and losses. Consumers fell behind on home-equity credit lines at the fastest pace in two decades in the first quarter, the American Bankers Association reported last month.

“Morgan Stanley periodically reassesses client property values and risk profiles,” said Christine Pollak, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman in Purchase, New York. “A segment of clients was recently notified of a change in the status of their home- equity line of credit, or HELOC, due to a change in the value of their property and/or their credit profile.”


Israel’s Secret Police Pressuring Sick Gazans to Spy for Them in Exchange for Medical Treatment

August 5th, 2008

Via: Guardian:

Israel’s secret police are pressuring Palestinians in Gaza to spy on their community in exchange for urgent medical treatment, according to a report released today by an Israeli human rights organisation.

Physicians for Human Rights says the Shin Bet began interrogating Palestinian patients seeking permission to travel from Gaza to Israel for crucial medical help after Israel blockaded and then declared the tiny territory an enemy entity more than a year ago.

Typically, patients are taken to a small, windowless room, underground, beneath the security terminal at Erez, the only passenger crossing that remains open between Gaza and Israel, where they are questioned by Shin Bet agents for hours, the report says.

Refusal to cooperate often results in the denial of medical treatment. Based on the testimonies of more than 30 Palestinians – 11 of which are published – the report says the Shin Bet is using coercion and extortion to force patients to collaborate.

“They took me through underground passages and made me sit in another waiting room for almost 45 minutes. A man approached me and called me to another room for interrogation. He asked me to sit down and presented himself as Moshe,” Bassam al-Wahidi, a Fatah-aligned journalist, said in his affidavit to Physicians for Human Rights.

“After all my responses he said to me: ‘I want to talk to you openly when you return from Israel so that you will have an acceptable reputation on the Israeli side. Either you make contact with me and agree to my demands, or you will not get any medical treatment which will cause you to be blind and you will become a burden to your family and friends,'” Wahidi said in his affidavit.

But he said he refused and was forced to return to Gaza without receiving any treatment. Now the 28-year-old, who married a year and a half ago, is completely blind in his right eye and losing the vision in his overstrained left eye.

“I might divorce because I can’t stand in front of my wife as a disabled person,” Wahidi said.

He is one of an unknown number of patients from Gaza who have been denied medical treatment after refusing to inform on their friends, neighbours and relatives. Many patients feel they are being forced to choose between preserving their life or protecting their community. Physicians for Human Rights says such pressure amounts to coercion and extortion.

International law forbids the use of civilians in conflict to damage an enemy state and collaboration in the Palestinian community is a crime punishable by death.

“The patient knows that refusal to respond to the interrogator’s questions and demands will ruin his chances to access medical treatment,” the report says. While some patients are turned back after they refuse to collaborate, others arrive at the security interview only to be detained and locked in jail, it says.


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