IMF Tells States to Plan for the Worst; “Think the Unthinkable”
March 14th, 2008A handful of Wall Street firms created this mess, and guess who’s going to pay?
Mmm hmm.
Via: Financial Times:
IMF tells states to plan for the worst
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: March 13 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 13 2008 02:00
Governments might have to intervene with taxpayers’ money to shore up the financial system and prevent a “downward credit spiral” from taking hold, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday.
John Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said: “We must keep all options on the table, including the potential use of public funds to safeguard the financial system.”
The statement by the senior IMF official marks the second radical policy intervention from the IMF this year. It had previously called on governments to consider using fiscal policy to offset the impact of the credit crisis on growth.
Mr Lipsky said: “I fully recognise an appropriate role for public sector intervention after market solutions have been exhausted.”
He urged policymakers to “think the unthinkable” and prepare now for what they would do if the worst case scenarios materialised and “low probability but high impact events” threatened to jeopardise global financial stability.
He warned of the risk that a “global financial decelerator” could take hold, in which rising defaults and margin calls from lenders triggered forced asset sales, driving down the value of collateral and forcing further forced sales.
The IMF deputy managing director’s comments make it clear that the fund is open in principle to the possibility of taxpayer-funded intervention in the market for mortgage securities as well as intervention to save individual banks from bankruptcy.
Mr Lipsky warned: “The risks of further escalation of this crisis are rising and decisive policy action will be needed.”
He said this crisis was different from recent past crises because both the financial markets and the banking system “have faltered simultaneously”. The first priority had to be to reverse the “spreading strains” in global financial markets and restore the functioning of the financial system in advanced economies.
Mr Lipsky said there should be no let up in the pressure on financial institutions to disclose losses but said pressure to deleverage “needs to be kept orderly”.
He also urged banks to recapitalise to avoid shrinking their balance sheet.
Stressing that this was a global problem – not one confined to the US – he said it would have to be addressed in a “global -context”.
Mr Lipsky said the “first line of defence” remained monetary policy and interest rates. But monetary policy was “hampered” by problems in the credit markets and “there is a risk of a broader and more intense tightening in credit conditions”.
This was why the IMF was making the case that “there is likely to be a role in some countries for stepped-up counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy measures to help support demand”. Fiscal policy was the “second line of defence”.
But Mr Lipsky said “macroeconomic policies may not be sufficient to cushion the blow if an extreme event occurs” – making it essential that policymakers prepared for the possible need to intervene.
Hundreds Line Up for Government Handouts, Meet Riot Police Instead
March 13th, 2008Via: Palm Beach Post:
A crowd of more than 500 people waiting for hours this morning for housing voucher applications were dispersed by police in riot gear at the Boca Raton Housing Authority when the applications ran out sooner than expected.
The action prompted complaints that officers used excessive tactics and housing authority officials were incompetent in their planning.
Two people were arrested and six to eight people hospitalized for exhaustion during the ordeal.
Hundreds of people, mostly mothers who had spent more than eight hours in line, were forced to leave the property at 2333 W. Glades Road by 30 Boca Raton Police officers, including SWAT team members, who walked toward the crowd in unison holding their police shields up about 10:30 a.m.
“Leave or face arrest,” police officers shouted at the crowd as they urged them out of the housing authority parking lot. People were made to leave the vicinity altogether, with officers forcing them to cross the street and move toward their cars.
The overwhelming turnout of people desperate for housing money came as little surprise to Suzanne Cabrera, president of the Housing Leadership Council of Palm Beach County.
“This is an indication that housing it’s still a huge problem,” Cabrera said this afternoon. “It’s a reflection of people’s concern for housing, their uncertainty. I got people today asking me: was this my last chance to get housing I can afford?”
Several other things, such as mortgage foreclosures and high gas prices, are contributing to that feeling of insecurity and desperation, she said.
So whenever word gets out that voucher applications are being handed out, which she said doesn’t happen very often, people get full of hope.
Research Credit: GT
Retail Sales Plunge by 0.6 Percent
March 13th, 2008Via: AP:
Consumers, battered by plunging home prices and a credit crunch, stayed away from the malls in February, pushing retail sales down by a larger-than-expected amount. It was another worrisome sign that the country could be falling into a recession.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that retail sales fell by 0.6 percent last month, far worse than the small 0.2 percent increase that analysts had been expecting.
The weakness was widespread with sales of autos, furniture and appliances all down.
It marked the second time in the past three months that retail sales have taken a tumble. Sales had fallen by an even bigger 0.7 percent in December, the largest drop in six months, as the nation’s retailers suffered through a dismal holiday shopping season. Sales posted a modest 0.4 percent gain in January.
Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
Gold for April Delivery: $1000
March 13th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
Equities are going to get whacked. What usually happens in these situations is that money comes out of the gold. Don’t be surprised if it pulls back.
Via: Reuters:
U.S. gold futures rallied to a record high of $1,000 an ounce on Thursday, fueled by a combination of a weakening dollar, strong investment demand and inflation fears due to rising crude oil prices.
At 8:27 a.m. EDT, the active contract for April delivery was up $17.30 or 1.7 percent at $997.70 an ounce. Just minutes earlier, it had hit an all-time high of $1,000 on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold: Remember the Messy Symmetrical Triangle?
March 13th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
I was just looking at the four and eight hour intervals on gold and my Magic 8 Ball, chicken entrails and tea leaves lead me to believe that we might have a bullish Symmetrical Triangle forming… Yeah, squint really hard, it might help you see it. * chortle * And right under that big, fat $1000. Squint some more and you might see a bullish Ascending Triangle.
—Gold: Intraday Intervals Forming Messy Symmetrical Triangle
Weeeeeeeee!

Gold, eight hour interval, symmetrical triangle breakout
Trying for a grand, again.
Rangiora Eco Village
March 13th, 2008I read about the new Rangiora Eco Village development in a local newspaper yesterday. I wanted to mention it because I know that some of you are in New Zealand, or are planning to be here soon. This isn’t too far from where I’m sitting at the moment, and I’d like to see more Cryptogonners in the neighborhood. * hint *
Yep, you would need to bring a decent chunk of change, but it looks like you would be getting the total package, with community being the most important benefit.
LENDERS TO LIQUIDATE CARLYLE CAPITAL
March 13th, 2008Via: BBC:
Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC), a unit of the private equity firm Carlyle Group, has said it will not be able to meet lenders’ demands for money.
The US mortgage-backed bond fund will collapse if, as expected, its lenders liquidate the fund to take possession of its remaining assets.
CCC is the latest casualty of the declining US housing market.
Its shares were suspended last week after some lenders forced it to sell assets to get their cash back.
“Almost within the blink of an eye, a business that had borrowed $21bn from the world’s biggest banks to invest in high-quality mortgage-backed securities will be gone, liquidated, kaput,” said BBC business editor Robert Peston.
“Such is the whirlwind blowing through global financial markets.”
CCC’s collapse will lose its clients some $600m, according to Simon Denham, managing director at Capital Spreads.
He believes this will have a “serious knock on effect across the hedge fund fraternity” with lending banks demanding an increasing level of cash to insulate themselves against the possibilities of credit defaults.
EUR/USD 1.5600
March 13th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
Dollar holders getting bent over a barrel. Gold is up, around $990.
I hope Cryptogon crash traders are managing well out there.
Via: Forbes:
The dollar fell below 100 yen to reach a 12-year low this morning, as well as hitting a new record low against the euro as recession fears sparked a fresh bout of risk aversion.
‘This is a market that is focused on risk more than return and sentiment remains significantly negative that the market is wary about taking on board excessive risk,’ said Divyang Shah at Commonwealth Bank.
The dollar dipped briefly below the 100 yen level for the first time since November 1995 to reach a low of 99.75. Speculation that the Bank of Japan could step in to intervene at these levels meant it failed to hold below 100, however, and at 8.57 am GMT it was trading at 100.08 yen.
The Swiss franc was another focus of safe-haven buying, with the dollar hitting a low of 1.0057 sfr, sparking talk of a breach of parity.
Fed Takes Boldest Action Since the Depression to Rescue U.S. Mortgage Industry
March 13th, 2008Via: Telegraph:
The US Federal Reserve has taken the boldest action since the 1930s, accepting $200bn of housing debt as collateral to prevent an implosion of the mortgage finance industry and head off a full-blown economic crisis.
The Bank of England, the key European central banks, and the Bank of Canada all joined in a co-ordinated move with a mix of policies to halt the dowward spiral in the credit markets, expanding on the “shock and awe” tactics used late last year.
The Fed’s dramatic step came after an emergency conference call by governors on Monday night. It followed the melt-down of the US chartered agencies — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other lenders — which together guarantee 60pc of the entire US home loan market. Fannie Mae’s share price fell 19pc in panic trading on Monday after Barron’s magazine said it may need a rescue package.
“The agency crisis was a Tsunami event,” said Tim Bond, global strategist at Barclays Capital.
“The market was starting to question the solvency of bodies that stand at the top of the credit pile. These agencies together wrap or insure $6 trillion of mortgages. They cannot be allowed to fail because it would cause a financial disaster. The fact that this sector has blown up has caught everybody’s attention in Washington,” he said.
New Arrest in SocGen Trading Scandal
March 12th, 2008Kerviel, according to legend, entered fictitious hedge positions that tricked the bank’s risk exposure system into ignoring the real positions!?
If the people behind this had bombed the bank’s headquarters into a pile of rubble and killed all the executives, they would have done far less damage than what was accomplished with this hack. Or, this is a smoke screen being used to try to hide even more unthinkable financial horrors.
The piece also says that Kerviel, “misappropriated other people’s computer access codes.”
Two factor authentication has been standard in the finance industry for years. Simply: Two different authentication methods are required for access to critical systems. Access is only granted when a user supplies his or her credentials (username and password) ALONG WITH some other security token, usually a cryptographic security token that is displayed on a small device. (Biometrics are an option for the other factor.) The cryptographic signature changes every several seconds. It is synced with the server that is providing authentication. The token is usable only once, and within a very narrow time window.
In other words, when they’re saying that Kerviel, “misappropriated other people’s computer access codes,” did he go around and ask to borrow their one-time-pass cryptographic token generators, as well as their usernames and passwords?
I really don’t know what this situation at Societe Generale represents, but I can tell that it’s not the work of one man.
No way.
—French Bank Says Trader Hacked Computers
Like I said: No way.
Via: Reuters:
Police arrested another employee of Societe Generale on Wednesday as they probe the world’s biggest rogue trading scandal, Paris prosecutors said.
In January, France’s second-biggest listed bank SocGen unveiled 4.9 billion euros ($7.53 billion) of losses which it blamed on rogue deals carried out by Jerome Kerviel, a 31-year old junior trader at the bank.
The losses have made SocGen a possible bid target.
The Paris prosecutor’s office identified the latest person being held as a trader from a subsidiary of SocGen.
A source close to the matter said the person being held works for SG Securities, the bank’s share brokerage arm.
SocGen declined to identify the person or the division.
A spokeswoman for the bank said police had searched SocGen’s trading room at its glass-fronted headquarters in the Le Defense financial district on Wednesday.
She confirmed one person was being held for questioning.
Kerviel has been placed under investigation for breach of trust, computer abuse and falsification. He is being held in a Paris prison after a decision to grant bail was overturned.
The fresh arrest comes ahead of a hearing on Friday on whether Kerviel should remain in custody.


