Trump Instructs U.S. Navy to Destroy Iranian Gunboats ‘If They Harass Our Ships at Sea’
April 22nd, 2020Via: Reuters:
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he had instructed the U.S. Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass it at sea, a week after 11 vessels from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) came dangerously close to U.S. ships in the Gulf.
The Characteristics of an Initiation Ritual
April 22nd, 2020Via: Truthstream Media:
Dr. John Ioannidis: Perspectives on the Pandemic [Update]
April 21st, 2020Update: Miasma of Confusion Around Multiple Antibody Studies
Nobody knows WTF is happening.
Via: Science Magazine:
Surveying large swaths of the public for antibodies to the new coronavirus promises to show how widespread undiagnosed infections are, how deadly the virus really is, and whether enough of the population has become immune for social distancing measures to be eased. But the first batch of results has generated more controversy than clarity.
The survey results, from Germany, the Netherlands, and several locations in the United States, find that anywhere from 2% to 30% of certain populations have already been infected with the virus. The numbers imply that confirmed COVID-19 cases are an even smaller fraction of the true number of people infected than many had estimated and that the vast majority of infections are mild. But many scientists question the accuracy of the antibody tests and complain that several of the research groups announced their findings in the press rather than in preprints or published papers, where their data could be scrutinized. Critics are also wary because some of the researchers are on record advocating for an early end to lockdowns and other control measures, and claim the new prevalence figures support that call.
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Update: USC Study, Similar Conclusion to Stanford
Via: USC:
USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health on Monday released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread — and the fatality rate much lower — in L.A. County than previously thought.
The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and county health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county.
Based on the results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus — which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have been infected. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county at the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.
“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, professor of public policy at the USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”
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Update: Stanford Study Debunked
More: Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence
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Via: Journeyman Pictures:
Johan Giesecke: Why Lockdowns Are the Wrong Policy
April 21st, 2020Via: Unherd:
Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:
– UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
– The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
– This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
– The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
– The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
– The paper was very much too pessimistic
– Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
– The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
– The results will eventually be similar for all countries
– Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
– The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
– At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
Harvard Professor Recommends Ban on Homeschooling
April 20th, 2020Elizabeth Bartholet’s desperation is hilarious, uplifting and beautiful.
Via: Harvard Magazine:
A rapidly increasing number of American families are opting out of sending their children to school, choosing instead to educate them at home. Homeschooled kids now account for roughly 3 percent to 4 percent of school-age children in the United States, a number equivalent to those attending charter schools, and larger than the number currently in parochial schools.
Yet Elizabeth Bartholet, Wasserstein public interest professor of law and faculty director of the Law School’s Child Advocacy Program, sees risks for children—and society—in homeschooling, and recommends a presumptive ban on the practice. Homeschooling, she says, not only violates children’s right to a “meaningful education” and their right to be protected from potential child abuse, but may keep them from contributing positively to a democratic society.
YouTube CEO: “Anything That Would Go Go Against WHO Recommendations Would Be A Violation Of Our Policy”
April 20th, 2020Also, watch out for those Vitamin C and turmeric videos. Remove. Remove. Remove.
Via: CNN:
YouTube CEO Susan Wojcocki says users are using the platform during the coronavirus crisis.
It started with basic information but now users “want to know about life under quarantine… like exercise at home. How do I fix my freezer? How do I give myself a haircut.” pic.twitter.com/p8jxTUBRte
— Reliable Sources (@ReliableSources) April 19, 2020
TRUMP SUSPENDING ALL IMMIGRATION INTO U.S.
April 20th, 2020Via: The Hill:
President Trump on Monday said he will sign an executive order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States amid the coronavirus pandemic, a move that is likely to draw prompt legal challenges.
“In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!” Trump tweeted.
…
The order would mark an extraordinary use of executive power by Trump, who hours earlier was speaking optimistically about the ability of certain states to begin reopening their economies despite the threat of the virus.
Flu Shot Raises Risk of Coronavirus by 36%, Vaccine Derived Virus Interference
April 20th, 2020Via: Children’s Health Defense:
In searching the literature, the only study we have been able to find assessing flu shots and coronavirus is a 2020 US Pentagon study that found that the flu shot INCREASES the risks from coronavirus by 36%. “Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a phenomenon known as “virus interference…’vaccine derived’ virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus…”
Oil Gaps Down, Low Demand, Storage Running Out
April 20th, 2020Update: Oil Trading Negative
I thought there was a problem with the data. Nope. ZeroHedge is reporting it: Front-Month WTI Crude Crashes Below Zero For First Time Ever
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Update: Penny
Via: CNBC:
West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery tanked 98%, or $18.04, to trade at 19 cents per barrel, its lowest level on record. At the session low, the contract traded at 1 cent. Meanwhile international benchmark, Brent crude, which has already rolled to the June contract, traded 6.3% lower at $26.30 per barrel. The June WTI contract, which expires on May 19, fell about 10% to $22.54 per barrel. The July contract was roughly 5% lower at $28 per barrel.
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Update: $1.25
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Update: $2.25
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Update: $3.04
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Update: $4.04
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Update: “Super Contango”
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Update: Largest WTI Price Decline on Record
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Update: $7.70
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Update: $10.42
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Update: $11.48
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Update: $12.43 [???] Oil production remains profitable in only three countries at these levels: Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
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$13.47 (NY Merc) as I post.
Madness.
Via: BBC:
The price of US oil has fallen to a level not seen since 1999, as demand dries up and storage runs out.
The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US oil, dropped 19.3% to $14.74 a barrel on Monday.
The oil market has come under intense pressure during the coronavirus pandemic with a huge slump in demand.
US storage facilities are now struggling to cope with the glut of oil, weakening prices further.
“The tech chief had never used the bunker and couldn’t remember how to unlock it”
April 20th, 2020Comedy gold.
Via: Bloomberg:
As coronavirus infections tore across the U.S. in early March, a Silicon Valley executive called the survival shelter manufacturer Rising S Co. He wanted to know how to open the secret door to his multimillion-dollar bunker 11 feet underground in New Zealand.
The tech chief had never used the bunker and couldn’t remember how to unlock it, said Gary Lynch, general manager of Texas-based Rising S Co. “He wanted to verify the combination for the door and was asking questions about the power and the hot water heater and whether he needed to take extra water or air filters,” Lynch said.
