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Qantas Airways Grounds Entire Global Fleet Due To Strikes
October 30th, 2011Via: AP:
Australia’s government ordered an emergency arbitration hearing on Sunday after Qantas Airways grounded its global fleet amid a bitter dispute with striking workers, stranding passengers around the world.
Government leaders, who expressed frustration over the airline’s actions, were expected to argue at the hearing that Qantas should be forced to fly in Australia’s economic interests.
“It’s not our place to start allocating responsibility, but what I also know is there is a better way to resolve these matters … than locking your customers out,” Australian Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten told reporters ahead of the arbitration hearing in the southern city of Melbourne. “We want more common sense than that.”
Qantas, the world’s 10th-largest airline, announced Saturday that it would ground all flights. But CEO Alan Joyce said the airline could be flying again within hours if the three arbitration judges rule to permanently terminate the grounding and the unions’ strike action.
The unions want the judges to rule for a suspension so that the strikes can be resumed if their negotiations with the airline fail.
“Within six hours, we can get the fleet flying again” after the aviation regulator provides a routine clearance, Joyce told Australian Broadcasting Corp. television Sunday.
“We have to wait and see what that process generates today,” he said, referring to the court hearing.
Planes in the air when the grounding was announced continued to their destinations, and at least one taxiing flight stopped on the runway, a passenger said. Among the stranded passengers are 17 world leaders attending a Commonwealth summit in the western Australian city of Perth.
When the grounding was announced, 36 international and 28 domestic Australian flights were in the air, the airline said.
Syria Using U.S. Made Web Surveillance and Censorship Systems
October 29th, 2011These boxes are probably rooted by NSA. The Syrians are clueless enough to have allowed them to phone home, so, my guess is that Uncle is on board too.
Via: Cnet:
Blue Coat Systems has confirmed that its devices were being used by Syria to censor the Web and said it is investigating how they got into that country despite a strict U.S. trade embargo, The Wall Street Journal reported today.
The appliances were “transmitting automatic status messages back to the company” Blue Coat executives told the newspaper.
“Blue Coat says it doesn’t monitor where such ‘heartbeat’ messages originate from,” according to the report. “Computer code reviewed by the Journal indicates that Syrians were also using other Blue Coat products, raising questions about how the tools came to be used this way and whether Blue Coat has violated the trade embargo.”
Reports began trickling out this summer that the devices were being used by Syria to monitor its citizens’ Internet activity in a crackdown on opposition that has left thousands of protesters dead and injured.
Last month, Blue Coat told ZDNet UK that company policy forbade the sale of equipment to the Syrian government.
Fourteen of the Blue Coat devices were shipped to Dubai late last year destined for the Iraq government, and at least 13 of them were found in use in Syria, company executives said.
Snake Oil Economic Models
October 29th, 2011Remember, this isn’t physics.
—Gold Eyes Biggest 3-Day Fall In 28 Years
This is hilarious. It reminds me of my experiences in trying to develop black box trading systems. It’s relatively easy, for example, to program an autotrading system for EURUSD that does extremely well on some finite chuck of historical data. Initially, I thought that increasing the size of the dataset would help to produce better results over a variety of conditions. It turns out that the size of the initial dataset didn’t really matter because everything I tried resulted in overtraining my algorithm to that particular dataset. Once calibrated, what do you think happened as more data was added? That’s right, the %Profitable trades decreased. Eventually, it became clear that I was developing ornate coin tossing systems.
Anyone who works with trading systems should print this out, frame it and hang it on the wall. It’s from the article below:
That financial models are plagued by calibration problems is no surprise to Wilmott–he notes that it has become routine for modelers in finance to simply keep recalibrating their models over and over again as the models continue to turn out bad predictions. “When you have to keep recalibrating a model, something is wrong with it,” he says.
Yeah, buddy.
One more thing: The headline on the piece below is, “Why Economic Models Are Always Wrong.” I would argue that if something was always wrong, it would be easy to win! You could simply go the other way. In my experience, over time and given enough data, everything I’ve done nauseatingly approaches a coin toss. “Always wrong,” in a financial model would be a winning lottery ticket.
Via: Scientific American:
When it comes to assigning blame for the current economic doldrums, the quants who build the complicated mathematic financial risk models, and the traders who rely on them, deserve their share of the blame. [See “A Formula For Economic Calamity” in the November 2011 issue]. But what if there were a way to come up with simpler models that perfectly reflected reality? And what if we had perfect financial data to plug into them?
Incredibly, even under those utterly unrealizable conditions, we’d still get bad predictions from models.
The reason is that current methods used to “calibrate” models often render them inaccurate.
Research Credit: minerva
NYPD Monitors Everyone in City Who Changes Their Name
October 29th, 2011Via: AP:
For generations, immigrants have shed their ancestral identities and taken new, Americanized names as they found their place in the melting pot. For Muslims in New York, that rite of assimilation is now seen by police as a possible red flag in the hunt for terrorists.
The New York Police Department monitors everyone in the city who changes his or her name, according to interviews and internal police documents obtained by The Associated Press. For those whose names sound Arabic or might be from Muslim countries, police run comprehensive background checks that include reviewing travel records, criminal histories, business licenses and immigration documents.
All this is recorded in police databases for supervisors, who review the names and select a handful of people for police to visit.
The program was conceived as a tripwire for police in the difficult hunt for homegrown terrorists, where there are no widely agreed upon warning signs. Like other NYPD intelligence programs created in the past decade, this one involved monitoring behavior protected by the First Amendment.
Since August, an Associated Press investigation has revealed a vast NYPD intelligence-collecting effort targeting Muslims following the terror attacks of September 2001. Police have conducted surveillance of entire Muslim neighborhoods, chronicling daily life including where people eat, pray and get their hair cut. Police infiltrated dozens of mosques and Muslim student groups and investigated hundreds more.
Research Credit: midnightagain
Britain: Undercover Police Officers Allowed to Give False Evidence in Court
October 28th, 2011Via: Telegraph:
Senior police chiefs authorised undercover police officers to give false evidence in court to protect their cover as environmental protesters, it was claimed last night.
The claims led to Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary delaying a report into undercover police tactics at the last minute.
It had been due to be published today and was thought to be critical of the police.
Lawyers for a convicted protester claim a Metropolitan Police officer called Jim Boyling, posing as an activist, was prosecuted alongside their client and lied under oath to conceal his true identity.
Solicitors from the law firm Bindmans claim Boyling pretended to be Jim Sutton between 1995 and 2000 and joined the non-violent organisation Reclaim the Streets, the Guardian newspaper reported.
As part of his role, Bindmans claim, he was prosecuted at Horseferry Road magistrates court in London in 1997 for disorderly behaviour in a three-day trial.
He maintained his fiction during the entire prosecution, they allege, giving a false name and occupation and lying under oath.
Billionaire French Hotelier Shot Dead in Professional Hit
October 28th, 2011Via: Telegraph:
A billionaire French hotelier has been shot dead in a wealthy Paris suburb in what police believe was a professional hit.
The lifeless body of Claude Dray, 76, was found with three bullet holes in the neck in Neuilly-sur-Seine, the Paris suburb where President Nicolas Sarkozy built his career and still owns property.
A butler found Dray’s corpse at 9am on Tuesday following a death that had all the hallmarks of a professional hit.
Dray, one of the most prominent Jews in France, had been the subject of threats in the past. His palatial villa – which was called Madrid – was considered one of the most secure in the French capital.
It was regularly surrounded by police and private security guards, and is equipped with anti-intruder measures including cameras and infra-red alarms.
“Somebody got in and fired three bullets into the victim’s neck,” said one detective at the scene who asked not to be named, adding that a silencer had likely been used as domestic staff heard nothing.
Dray’s wife, Simone, was in the US, where four years ago he bought the famous art deco National Hotel in South Beach, Miami.
Dray also owned the Hotel de Paris in St Tropez, one of the most popular celebrity institutions on the French Riviera.
Iraq War Will Cost More than World War II
October 28th, 2011See this post for what winding down the war means:
There will also be 4,000 to 5,000 private State Department security contractors, as well as a significant C.I.A. presence. In Afghanistan, about 95,000 American troops remain.
Via: Christian Science Monitor:
Iraq war, now winding down with US troop exit by December, has cost more than $800 billion so far. But ongoing medical treatment, replacement vehicles, etc., will push costs to $4 trillion or more.
Anyone curious about the cost of America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan can look it up on costofwar.com, up to the latest fraction of a second. Last weekend, the Iraq war had cost more than $800 billion since 2001; the Afghan war, $467 billion plus.
For the 8-1/2-year conflict in Iraq alone, that works out to nearly $3,000 a second.
So President Obama’s announcement that all US troops will be out of Iraq by year end should mean some drop in ongoing military spending. But the budget relief probably won’t be as much as you might expect.
Tragically, beside the financial cost, there is the human toll. The war in Iraq has resulted in some 4,480 US troops killed and more than 32,000 wounded. (The Iraqis have suffered far more fatalities, about 654,965, according to the British medical journal The Lancet.) Thus, ongoing medical and disability claims and treatment of US veterans will boost the costs of the Iraq war even more.
Throw in the replacement of vehicles, weapons, equipment, etc., and the eventual tab for the United States could reach $4 trillion to $6 trillion, according to University of Columbia economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard University budget expert Linda Bilmes.
Research Credit: noncompliant
EU: 50% Writedown on Greek Bonds
October 27th, 2011Update: Why The Latest Eurozone Bail-Out Is Destined To Fail Within Weeks
—End Update—
Hooray! Can kicked down the road another five feet.
Via: Washington Post:
European leaders moved early Thursday to stem the debt crisis gripping the continent by agreeing to a plan that imposes steep losses on investors holding troubled Greek bonds and boosts the firepower of the region’s bailout fund to at least a trillion dollars.
After marathon negotiations that continued well past midnight, European leaders said banks and other major investors in Greek bonds agreed to take losses of up to 50 percent. This concession was meant to help prevent the Greek government from defaulting on bills it cannot pay and avoid an even costlier shock to the European financial system.
The losses are much larger than private investors accepted under a deal this summer. Since then, Greece’s economy has steadily eroded, making it even harder for the government to repay its bonds.
The question of how to structure a new refinancing plan for Greece and divide the costs of rescuing it has been at the center of negotiations. Other elements of the plan were dependent on European officials reaching an agreement with negotiators for major banks, which had been balking at taking bigger losses.
Under the deal, the bailout fund, known as the new European Financial Stability Facility, would help cash-strapped countries such as Italy and Spain borrow at least a trillion dollars by providing a kind of insurance that would make their bonds more attractive to investors.
The breakthrough at a summit meeting in Brussels came hours after leaders announced they had agreed on measures to shore up the region’s banking system. The 27-member European Union said banks would be asked to raise perhaps $150 billion in new capital as a buffer against possible losses on their holdings of European government bonds that have declined in value.
Related: Euro Rallies to 7-Week High


