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Widespread hiring freezes and layoffs have brought these problems into sharp relief now. But our graduate system has been in crisis for decades, and the seeds of this crisis go as far back as the formation of modern universities. Kant, in his 1798 work “The Conflict of the Faculties,” wrote that universities should “handle the entire content of learning by mass production, so to speak, by a division of labor, so that for every branch of the sciences there would be a public teacher or professor appointed as its trustee.”

Unfortunately this mass-production university model has led to separation where there ought to be collaboration and to ever-increasing specialization. In my own religion department, for example, we have 10 faculty members, working in eight subfields, with little overlap. And as departments fragment, research and publication become more and more about less and less. Each academic becomes the trustee not of a branch of the sciences, but of limited knowledge that all too often is irrelevant for genuinely important problems. A colleague recently boasted to me that his best student was doing his dissertation on how the medieval theologian Duns Scotus used citations.

The emphasis on narrow scholarship also encourages an educational system that has become a process of cloning. Faculty members cultivate those students whose futures they envision as identical to their own pasts, even though their tenures will stand in the way of these students having futures as full professors.

The dirty secret of higher education is that without underpaid graduate students to help in laboratories and with teaching, universities couldn’t conduct research or even instruct their growing undergraduate populations. That’s one of the main reasons we still encourage people to enroll in doctoral programs. It is simply cheaper to provide graduate students with modest stipends and adjuncts with as little as $5,000 a course — with no benefits — than it is to hire full-time professors.

The World Health Organization has, at the time of writing, increased its threat level to five, which means governments can activate their pandemic plans – and start handing out Tamiflu drugs.

This is extremely convenient for governments that would have very soon have to dispose of billions of dollars of Tamiflu stock, which they bought to counter avian flu, or H5N1. The US government ordered 20 million doses, costing $2bn, in October, 2005, and around that time the UK government ordered 14.6 million doses. Tamiflu’s manufacturer, Roche, has confirmed that the shelf life of its anti-viral is three years.

DHS Assistant Secretary Bridger McGaw circulated the swine flu memo, which was obtained by CBSNews.com, on Monday night. It says: “The Department of Justice has established legal federal authorities pertaining to the implementation of a quarantine and enforcement. Under approval from HHS, the Surgeon General has the authority to issue quarantines.”

McGaw appears to have been referring to the section of federal law that allows the Surgeon General to detain and quarantine Americans “reasonably believed to be infected” with a communicable disease. A Centers for Disease Control official said on Tuesday that swine flu deaths in the U.S. are likely.

Federal quarantine authority is limited to diseases listed in presidential executive orders; President Bush added “novel” forms of influenza with the potential to create pandemics in Executive Order 13375. Anyone violating a quarantine order can be punished by a $250,000 fine and a one-year prison term.

The exercise comes as the World Health Organization raised its pandemic alert, which means it believes a global outbreak of the swine flu is imminent.

No cases of swine flu have been reported in Alaska. Still, health officials say it is possible swine flu will reach our state, and they want to be ready in case it does.

Over the past two weeks, 11 schools have participated in an exercise to distribute the chicken pox vaccine to students.

This is also a chance to practice dispensing medication in the event of a large scale emergency, according to the Department of Health and Social Services and the school district.

Two Anchorage schools on Wednesday had a special delivery from the health department.

The schools received hundreds of doses of the varicella vaccine, which is used to prevent chicken pox.

The state requires all elementary students receive two shots of the vaccine by next year.

“Part of it is getting a jump on that cause,” said Mark Mew, the school district’s director of security and emergency preparedness. “There is obviously going to be a rush at the doctor’s office and the Health Department.”

This is also a chance for the district to practice its ability to deliver a lot of medication on short notice.

“We have a responsibility as the Department of Health and Human services to really have a high level of capacity to be able to deal with public health emergencies should they occur,” DHSS Deputy Director Jayson Smart said.

The school district says it wants to be ready to help out in the event of a pandemic.

“We’ve known for a couple of years that we’ve got a threat of pandemic flu, everybody’s been thinking about avian influenza for the last few years,” Mew said.

This is the third time DHSS and the school district have teamed up for a mass vaccination drill.

The majority of staff who helped with the drill is employed by the district, but some are volunteers.

“And when we do these kinds of exercises or practices, it helps us kind of identify, where do we have problems in things we need to fix to be better at doing that. This is a great practicing opportunity,” Smart said.

The timing of this pandemic practice couldn’t be better now that swine flu is sweeping across the nation.

“It wasn’t the reason we’re doing this necessarily, but certainly timely. It’s got everybody’s mind on that topic right now,” said Mew.

Over the past two weeks, the district distributed nearly 2,000 chicken pox vaccines to students from kindergarten to sixth grade.

The results, originally scheduled for publication on May 4, now may not be revealed until toward the end of next week, said the people, who declined to be identified. A new release date may be announced as soon as tomorrow, they said.

Regulators and bank executives are concerned about how the disclosure is handled because weaker institutions could suffer a collapse in their stock prices.

“Everybody understands they’ve got a tiger by the tail here,” said Mark Tenhundfeld, a senior vice president at the American Bankers’ Association in Washington. “If they don’t let him go gently, there will be a lot of mauling going on.”

The 19 firms include Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., GMAC LLC, MetLife Inc. and regional lenders including Fifth Third Bancorp and Regions Financial Corp. The banks in the test hold two-thirds of the assets and more than half of the loans in the U.S. banking system, according to a Fed study released April 24.

The Federal Government’s pandemic plan, a 132-page manual issued to medics, media and the public, insists that once the world reaches phase five, Australians should stock their pantries with food and bottled water to last 14 days, check on elderly neighbours and put emergency numbers by the phone.

But yesterday a spokesman for the Department of Health and Ageing called for calm, saying the Government did not want to spark panic buying – ignoring its own plan, already issued to hospitals across the nation.

“I agree that is it confusing,” the spokesman said, admitting he had not read the pandemic plan despite being employed to answer questions about it from national media. “The manual may say people should be preparing but we don’t want a run at the shops,” he said.

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

“Let’s not lose track of the fact that the normal seasonal influenza is a huge public health problem that kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. alone and hundreds of thousands around the world,” said Dr. Christopher Olsen, a molecular virologist who studies swine flu at the University of Wisconsin School of Veterinary Medicine in Madison.

His remarks Wednesday came the same day Texas authorities announced that a nearly 2-year-old boy with the virus had died in a Houston hospital Monday.

“Any time someone dies, it’s heartbreaking for their families and friends,” Olsen said. “But we do need to keep this in perspective.”

Flu viruses are known to be notoriously unpredictable, and this strain could mutate at any point — becoming either more benign or dangerously severe. But mounting preliminary evidence from genetics labs, epidemiology models and simple mathematics suggests that the worst-case scenarios are likely to be avoided in the current outbreak.

“This virus doesn’t have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus,” which claimed an estimated 50 million victims worldwide, said Richard Webby, a leading influenza virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.

When the current virus was first identified, the similarities between it and the 1918 flu seemed ominous.

Both arose in the spring at the tail end of the flu season. Both seemed to strike people who were young and healthy instead of the elderly and infants. Both were H1N1 strains, so called because they had the same types of two key proteins that are largely responsible for a virus’ ability to infect and spread.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health published genetic sequence data Monday morning of flu samples isolated from patients in California and Texas, and thousands of scientists immediately began downloading the information. Comparisons to known killers — such as the 1918 strain and the highly lethal H5N1 avian virus — have since provided welcome news.

“There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks,” said Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York. In particular, the swine flu lacks an amino acid that appears to increase the number of virus particles in the lungs and make the disease more deadly.

Scientists have identified several other differences between the current virus and its 1918 predecessor, but the significance of those differences is still unclear, said Dr. Scott Layne, an epidemiologist at the UCLA School of Public Health.

Ralph Tripp, an influenza expert at the University of Georgia, said that his early analysis of the virus’ protein-making instructions suggested that people exposed to the 1957 flu pandemic — which killed up to 2 million people worldwide — may have some immunity to the new strain.

That could explain why older people have been spared in Mexico, where the swine flu has been most deadly.

The swine virus does appear able to spread easily among humans, which persuaded the WHO to boost its influenza pandemic alert level to phase 5, indicating that a worldwide outbreak of infection is very likely. And the CDC reported on its website that “a pattern of more severe illness associated with the virus may be emerging in the United States.”

“We expect to see more cases, more hospitalizations, and, unfortunately, we are likely to see more deaths from the outbreak,” Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told reporters Wednesday on her first day at work.

But certainly nothing that would dwarf a typical flu season. In the U.S., between 5% and 20% of the population becomes ill and 36,000 people die — a mortality rate of between 0.24% and 0.96%.

Dirk Brockmann, a professor of engineering and applied mathematics at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill., used a computer model of human travel patterns to predict how this swine flu virus would spread in the worst-case scenario, in which nothing is done to contain the disease.

After four weeks, almost 1,700 people in the U.S. would have symptoms, including 198 in Los Angeles, according to his model. That’s just a fraction of the county’s thousands of yearly flu victims.

Just because the virus is being identified in a growing number of places — including Austria, Canada, Germany, Israel, New Zealand, Spain and Britain — doesn’t mean it’s spreading particularly quickly, Olsen said.

“You don’t ever find anything that you don’t look for,” he said. “Now that diagnostic laboratories and physicians and other healthcare workers know to look for it, perhaps it’s not surprising that you’re going to see additional cases identified.”

And a pandemic doesn’t necessarily have a high fatality rate. Even in Mexico, the fatalities may simply reflect that hundreds of thousands of people have been infected. Since the symptoms of swine flu are identical to those of a normal flu, there’s no way to know how many cases have evaded government health officials, St. Jude’s Webby said.

As the virus adapts to its human hosts, it is likely to find ways of spreading more efficiently. But evolution also suggests it might become less dangerous, Olsen said.

“If it kills off all its potential hosts, you reach a point where the virus can’t survive,” he said. Working to calm public fears, U.S. officials on Wednesday repeatedly stressed the statistic of yearly flu deaths — 36,000.

Sebelius and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano also rejected calls to close the borders, which several lawmakers reiterated Wednesday on Capitol Hill.

“We are making all of our decisions based on the science and the epidemiology,” Napolitano said. “The CDC, the public health community and the World Health Organization all have said that closing out nation’s borders is not merited here.”

Though scientists have begun to relax about the initial toll, they’re considerably less comfortable when taking into account the fall flu season. They remain haunted by the experience of 1918, when the relatively mild first wave of flu was followed several months later by a more aggressive wave.

The longer the virus survives, the more chances it has to mutate into a deadlier form.

An e-mail sent by Dr. Marcus Gitterle, an employee of Christus Santa Rosa hospital, sent out an e-mail releasing information about a public health meeting he recently attended. The e-mail states that almost everybody exposed to H1N1 virus will become infected, though not necessarily sick. He also wrote that he believed the number of confirmed cases is higher than media reports indicated and that hospital would likely be overwhelmed.

The e-mail generated a massive amount of interest from the hundred who received it, including KSAT 12 News via numerous forwarded messages from readers and viewers.

Comal County officials addressed Gitterle’s comments at their Thursday morning briefing.

“Christus Santa Rosa hospital just called me to assure me that this doctor was not speaking for the hospital,” said Comal County Judge Danny Scheel. “The hospital agrees fully with the recommendations made by the CDC and by our local health authorities.”

Scheel also said Gitterle’s assertions that communities are running out of Tamiflu, one of the treatments being used for those diagnosed with the illness, are exaggerated, and that more of the drug would be available if necessary.

Gitterle backtracked from his earlier e-mail with a post on his blog Thursday. The post read: “Finally, I want to clarify that I did not, and do not feel that the media is intentionally misleading anyone; rather, I think that this is a confusing, rapidly evolving situation, and it is easy for even trained professionals to become confused about the subtle distinctions between microbiologic confirmation and clinical diagnosis. I applaud the judicious, thoughtful reporting I have been seeing. I think the media has been by and large very responsible and helpful throughout this epidemic. Likewise, the Health Department and CDC are not misleading anyone, I think that again, the same technical communication issues apply.”

Dr. Marcus Gitterle, an emergency medicine physician based out of New Braunfels, Texas, sent out an internal alert which contains several stunning claims about swine flu that, if true, officials have presumably sought to keep from the public.

“After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County and Hays County, (name removed) suggested I send an update to my patients in the area, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is different from what you are hearing in the media,” writes Gitterle.

The doctor claims that the actual number of confirmed cases of swine flu is 10 to 25 times worse than has been reported, and that people are not recovering easily, as has been claimed, but that many Americans are in fact seriously ill.

“The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each “confirmed” case right now,” claims Gitterle.

“This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old in Houston is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life,” he writes.

Gitterle’s mention of a “23 month old in Houston” obviously refers to the Mexican toddler who died on Monday night and was announced as the first U.S. fatality on Tuesday morning.

Quick access to drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza, as well as ventilators, is preventing fatalities on the scale of Mexico, but Gitterle warns that “within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed”.

Gitterle warns, “ER’s south of here are becoming overwhelmed — and I mean that — already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.”

The doctor states that the severity of the situation has already crossed the threshold of the definition of a WHO phase 6 pandemic. “This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory,” he writes.

Gitterle claims that President Obama is being advised to declare a national emergency and that this could happen within the next 48 hours.

“This may not happen, but if it doesn’t, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days minimum,” writes the doctor.

Gitterle advises people to avoid all public gatherings, especially those held indoors, to avoid going to their ER if they feel ill, and to take the nutritional supplements N-Acetyl-Cysteine and Oscillococinum. He recommends Relenza as a more powerful drug than Tamiflu but warns that supplies of both drugs are running out fast.

The doctor states that swine flu is infectious for about two days prior to symptom onset and that the virus can spread for more than seven days after symptom onset. The symptoms are the same as normal flu, although it has been discovered that swine flu causes a distinctive “hoarseness” in many victims.