Oil Up, Gold Up, Dollar Down

August 21st, 2008

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

The business media is saying that geopolitical tensions between Russia and the U.S. and the ongoing credit/banking crisis are the drivers here. Maybe.

To me, these moves look like very technical plays. I’d be extremely careful chasing gold or oil long here. These look like textbook DCBs (Dead Cat Bounces) so far. A better gamble might be to look for good entries on long dollar plays as USDX consolidates and daily oscillators pull back from extremes.

Gold has a VERY hard resistance overhead at $850. As I said, I haven’t sold one gram of my gold through any of this recent nonsense, but when it comes to taking on new positions, I wouldn’t want to try to fight that $850 resistance here.

It’s very blurry out there, but I’m thinking that these moves are technical (off extreme oscillators).

I’m just glad that I’m hedged now. This volatility is insane.

Via: CNN:

Oil surged more than $6 a barrel on Thursday to touch $122 a barrel, as a falling dollar and renewed concerns over the credit crunch motivated investors to move their assets back to commodities.

U.S. crude for October delivery rose $5.66 to $121.22 a barrel, having reached as high as $122.02. Wednesday’s $114.98 settlement price ended active trading for the September contract.

The last time oil traded above $120 was Aug. 8, when it touched $120.08. Oil settled at $120.02 on Aug. 7.

“The investor class is buying back oil as a hedge because the value of the dollar is weak,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading.

Another analyst echoed the same sentiment. “All else equal, people would think that in a stable commodity market and a negative financial market – people would have more faith in the commodity place,” said Neal Dingmann, director of equity research at Dahlman Rose.

Weaker dollar: Oil prices were supported by the declining value of the U.S. dollar. The dollar was down against both the euro and the yen on Thursday.


Russia Blocks Georgia’s Main Port City

August 21st, 2008

Via: AP:

Russian forces blocked the only land entrance to Georgia’s main port city on Thursday, a day before Russia promised to complete a troop pullout from its ex-Soviet neighbor.

Armored personnel carriers and troop trucks blocked the bridge to the Black Sea port city of Poti, and Russian forces excavated trenches and set up mortars facing the city. Another group of APCs and trucks were positioned in a nearby wooded area.

Although Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has promised that his forces would pull back by Friday, Russian troops appear to be digging in, raising concern about whether Moscow is aiming for a lengthy occupation of its small, pro-Western neighbor.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili told The Associated Press that Russia was thinning out its presence in some occupied towns but was seizing other strategic spots. He called the Russian moves “some kind of deception game.”


Twilight of the Psychopaths

August 21st, 2008

I don’t agree that the pathocracy is in decline, but this is a good read anyway.

Via: The Canadian:

Behind the apparent insanity of contemporary history, is the actual insanity of psychopaths fighting to preserve their disproportionate power.

Related: Political Ponerology by Andrzej M. Lobaczewski


Swarms of Robots Join the Army

August 21st, 2008

Via: Guardian:

Small robots working in swarms have finally moved out of the laboratory and into the real world. That was the most significant feature of the Ministry of Defence’s Grand Challenge competition, held over the weekend. It’s an idea that is also being pursued by the US military.

The advantages of a decentralised swarm have long been apparent to researchers. After all, it’s a strategy that has proven effective for ants, bees and other social insects for millions of years. However, until now, robot swarms have been experimental rather than practical.

Research Credit: One More Promethean


U.S. CONSUMERS SHOULD BRACE FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES IN NEARLY 20 YEARS

August 21st, 2008

Via: Reuters:

U.S. consumers should brace for the biggest increase in food prices in nearly 20 years in 2008 and even more pain next year due to surging meat and produce prices, the Agriculture Department said on Wednesday.

Food prices are forecast to rise by 5 percent to 6 percent this year, making it the largest annual increase since 1990. Just last month, USDA forecast food prices would climb between 4.5 and 5.5 percent in 2008.

“It’s a little bit of a surprise how strong some of the numbers were in July,” USDA economist Ephraim Leibtag, who prepared the forecast, said in an interview.

“We’ve been waiting for some moderation, but especially with some of the meat prices and how much has come through relatively recently (at the retail level) leads me to believe the overall number may be a little bit higher for the year,” he added.

Leibtag said he expected food prices to moderate, but the timing depends on what happens to volatile energy and food ingredient costs.

Prices are expected to rise by 4 percent to 5 percent in 2009, lead by red meat and poultry. The forecast, if correct, would be the third straight year where food prices have surged at least 4 percent.


RUSSIA TO CUT ALL MILITARY TIES WITH NATO

August 21st, 2008

As this unfolds (into the fall and winter months), here’s something to keep in mind.

The following states now have strategic dependencies on natural gas from Russia:

Germany
Turkey
France
Austria
Poland
Greece

(See: Russian Natural Gas: Regional Dependence)

Via: AP / Guardian:

Russia has informed Norway that it plans to suspend all military ties with NATO, Norway’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

The report comes a day after NATO foreign ministers said they would make further ties with Russia dependent on Moscow making good on a pledge to pull its troops back to pre-conflict positions in Georgia. However, they stopped short of calling an immediate halt to all cooperation.

The Nordic country’s embassy in Moscow received a telephone call from “a well-placed official in the Russian Ministry of Defense,” who said Moscow plans “to freeze all military cooperation with NATO and allied countries,” Espen Barth Eide, state secretary with the Norwegian ministry said.

Eide told The Associated Press that the Russian official notified Norway it will receive a written note about this soon. He said Norwegian diplomats in Moscow would meet Russian officials on Thursday morning to clarify the implications of the freeze.

“It is our understanding that other NATO countries will receive similar notes,” Eide said. The ministry said the Russian official is known to the embassy, but Norway declined to provide a name or any further identifying information.

A Kremlin official declined to comment on the report. But the Interfax news agency, citing what it called a military-diplomatic source in Moscow whom it did not identify, reported that Russia is reviewing its 2008 military cooperation plans with NATO.

Officials at NATO headquarters in Brussels said Moscow had not informed the alliance it was taking such a step.

Washington described the reported move as unfortunate.

“If this indeed is the case, it would be unfortunate. We need to work with Russia on a range of security issues, but we are obviously very concerned about Russian behavior in Georgia,” U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood said.

The ITAR-Tass and RIA-Novosti news agencies, citing an unidentified member of the Russian mission to NATO in Brussels, reported that Russia’s NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin has been called back to Moscow for consultations on relations and between Russia and NATO, including military cooperation.

RIA-Novosti said Rogozin would return to Moscow late this week.

Eide said he hoped NATO and Moscow would get back on track with dialogue and cooperation but said that Russia would first have to comply with a cease-fire in Georgia.

“I regret the situation has come to this,” he said.

The hostilities between Russia and Georgia began earlier this month when Georgia cracked down on South Ossetia. The region is internationally recognized as being within Georgian borders but leans toward Moscow and regards itself as independent. Russia answered by sending its troops and tanks across the Georgian border.


Russian Aircraft Carrier Heads for Syria?

August 21st, 2008

Yikes. Keeping an eye on this for confirmation.

Via: MINA:

The Russian aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” is ready to head from Murmansk towards the Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open for a Russian base in the area. The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines, Newsru.com reports.

President Assad in meetings in Moscow this week expressed support to Russia’s intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia. He also expressed interest in the establishment of Russian missile air defence facilities on his land.

The “Admiral Kuznetsov” also last year headed a navy mission to the Mediterranean. Then, on the way from the Kola Peninsula and south, it stopped in the North Sea where it conducted a navy training exercise in the immediate vicinity of Norwegian offshore installations.


U.S. Sending 12,000 to 15,000 Additional U.S. Troops to Afghanistan

August 20th, 2008

Via: U.S. News:

The Pentagon will be sending 12,000 to 15,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, possibly as soon as the end of this year, with planning underway for a further force buildup in 2009.

A request by Gen. David McKiernan, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, for three U.S. brigades with support staff has been approved. “Now that means we just need to figure out a way to get them there,” adds a senior defense official.

The troops are slated to arrive earlier than has been previously discussed, on the heels of the deadliest months for American forces in Afghanistan since the war began.

The first wave of soldiers will be a U.S. Army brigade from the 10th Mountain Division, according to a senior military official. This brigade is scheduled to ship out between November and January, while two other brigades are likely to arrive “sometime in the spring or summer of next year,” the official adds.


U.S. Government Holding International Travel Information for 15 Years

August 20th, 2008

The Magic 8-Ball is strong in this one.

Via: Washington Post:

The federal government has been using its system of border checkpoints to greatly expand a database on travelers entering the country by collecting information on all U.S. citizens crossing by land, compiling data that will be stored for 15 years and may be used in criminal and intelligence investigations.

Officials say the Border Crossing Information system, disclosed last month by the Department of Homeland Security in a Federal Register notice, is part of a broader effort to guard against terrorist threats. It also reflects the growing number of government systems containing personal information on Americans that can be shared for a broad range of law enforcement and intelligence purposes, some of which are exempt from some Privacy Act protections.

While international air passenger data has long been captured this way, Customs and Border Protection agents only this year began to log the arrivals of all U.S. citizens across land borders, through which about three-quarters of border entries occur.

The volume of people entering the country by land prevented compiling such a database until recently. But the advent of machine-readable identification documents, which the government mandates eventually for everyone crossing the border, has made gathering the information more feasible. By June, all travelers crossing land borders will need to present a machine-readable document, such as a passport or a driver’s license with a radio frequency identification chip.

In January, border agents began manually entering into the database the personal information of travelers who did not have such documents.

The disclosure of the database is among a series of notices, officials say, to make DHS’s data gathering more transparent. Critics say the moves exemplify efforts by the Bush administration in its final months to cement an unprecedented expansion of data gathering for national security and intelligence purposes.

The data could be used beyond determining whether a person may enter the United States. For instance, information may be shared with foreign agencies when relevant to their hiring or contracting decisions.

Public comments are being taken until Monday, when the “new system of records will be effective,” the notice states.

“People expect to be checked when they enter the country and for the government to determine if they’re admissible or not,” said Greg Nojeim, senior counsel at the Center for Democracy & Technology. “What they don’t expect is for the government to keep a record for 15 years of their comings into the country.”

But DHS spokesman Russ Knocke said the retention period is justified.

“History has shown, whether you are talking about criminal or terrorist activity, that plotting, planning or even relationships among conspirators can go on for years,” he said. “Basic travel records can, quite literally, help frontline officers to connect the dots.”

The government states in its notice that the system was authorized by post-Sept. 11 laws, including the Enhanced Border Security and Visa Reform Act of 2002, the Aviation and Transportation Security Act of 2001, and the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004.

Nojeim said that though the statutes authorize the government to issue travel documents and check immigration status, he does not believe they explicitly authorize creation of the database.

“This database is, in a sense, worse than a watch list,” he said. “At least in the watch-list scenario, there’s some reason why the name got on the list. Here, the only thing a person does to come to the attention of DHS is to lawfully cross the border. The theory of this data collection is: Track everyone — just in case.”

Under the system, officials record name, birth date, gender, date and time of crossing, and a photo, where available, for U.S. travelers returning to the country by land, sea or air. The same information is gathered about foreign travelers, but it is held for 75 years.


UK: “Failsafe” Face Scanners Could Replace Passport Officers at Airports

August 20th, 2008

In Other News: Security researcher clones chips on two British passports; implants digital images of Osama bin Laden and a suicide bomber.

Three thousand blank British passports have been stolen.

Via: This Is London:

Facial recognition machines are to be installed at airports to replace passport officers under border control plans announced today.

The machines will scan a travellers’ face to compare them with the images on their biometric passports and open an automated gate when a match is registered.

Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, who unveiled details of the scheme today, claims it will shorten immigration queues and boost border security.


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