GOLD: STRATEGIC SUPPORT BREACHED
August 11th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
There it goes… $850 was the BIG one.
Via: Market Watch:
Gold futures dropped to their lowest level of the year Monday afternoon as a decline in oil prices and strength in the dollar sent the precious metal’s prices down by almost as much as $40 an ounce in electronic trading.
Gold for December delivery fell to a low of $825 an ounce in Globex electronic trading. That’s gold futures’ lowest price since late December. It was last down $31.80, or 3.7%, at $833.
The contract dropped $34.80, or 4%, to $830 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
“Following a feeble and half-hearted recovery attempt, gold prices suffered an even greater wash-out than last Friday’s disastrous run to the downside,” said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
On Friday, gold dropped $13.10 an ounce to chalk up a weekly loss of nearly 6%.
The former all-time high of $845 did not appear to have any significant support, and the steep drop in prices “may be very difficult to recover from,” Nadler said.
“We’ve got stronger dollar, weaker crude and a large-scale commodity liquidation working,” said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial.
Put Options “Lotto” on Bear Stearns Collapse Paid Out More than $270 Million
August 11th, 2008I watched another one pop, then, finally, I thought: “This is the scene of a crime for sure.”
—Insider Crimes, Funny Money and Options Rackets
Via: Bloomberg:
On March 11, the day the Federal Reserve attempted to shore up confidence in the credit markets with a $200 billion lending program that for the first time monetized Wall Street’s devalued collateral, somebody else decided Bear Stearns Cos. was going to collapse.
In a gambit with such low odds of success that traders question its legitimacy, someone wagered $1.7 million that Bear Stearns shares would suffer an unprecedented decline within days. Options specialists are convinced that the buyer, or buyers, made a concerted effort to drive the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm out of business and, in the process, reap a profit of more than $270 million.
Whoever placed the bet used so-called put options that gave purchasers the right to sell 5.7 million Bear Stearns shares for $30 each and 165,000 shares for $25 apiece just nine days later, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That was less than half the $62.97 closing price in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on March 11. The buyers were confident the stock would crash.
“Even if I were the most bearish man on Earth, I can’t imagine buying puts 50 percent below the price with just over a week to expiration,” said Thomas Haugh, general partner of Chicago-based options trading firm PTI Securities & Futures LP. “It’s not even on the page of rational behavior, unless you know something.”
The 57,000 puts that traded March 11 at the $30 strike price and the 1,649 that traded at $25 were collectively worth about $1.7 million, Bloomberg data show. Each put is equal to 100 shares of stock.
`Lottery Ticket’
“That trade amounted to buying a lottery ticket,” said Michael McCarty, chief options and equity strategist at New York-based brokerage Meridian Equity Partners Inc. “Would you buy $1.7 million worth of lottery tickets just because you could? No. Neither would a hedge fund manager.”
During the next four days, New York-based Bear Stearns unraveled in the swiftest investment-banking failure in Wall Street history. Speculation about a cash shortage proved self- fulfilling, causing customers and lenders to demand their money back. Bear Stearns’s stock sank 47 percent to $30 on Friday, March 14. That’s when the Fed moved to stave off a panic by helping the U.S. Treasury arrange JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s purchase of the company for $2 a share, a price unimaginable to the firm’s 14,000 employees and more than 500 shareholders.
In the aftermath, Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz told Congress that the firm was toppled by rumor- mongering and abusive trading. Regulators have begun peeling back trading records, hunting for suspects.
Schwartz and officials at the SEC declined to comment for this story.
FDIC Fund Strained by Bank Failures May Lift Premiums
August 11th, 2008Via: Bloomberg:
The failure of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. and seven other banks this year may erase as much as 17 percent of a government insurance fund and raise premiums for all banks, from Franklin National of Minneapolis to Bank of America Corp.
The closing of IndyMac in July, the third-biggest U.S. bank failure, may cost the fund $4 billion to $8 billion, in addition to an estimated $1.16 billion for seven closures through Aug. 1. Premiums for deposit insurance will likely rise, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a July 30 interview. A decision on the increase is due by the fourth quarter.
“It’s going to be a bloody, expensive mess for the banking industry,” said Bert Ely, president of Ely & Co. Inc., a bank consulting firm based in Alexandria, Virginia. “Healthy banks are paying for the mistakes made by failed banks.”
The pace of bank closings is accelerating as financial firms have reported almost $495 billion in writedowns and credit losses since 2007. The FDIC’s “problem” bank list grew by 18 percent in the first quarter from the fourth, to 90 banks with combined assets of $26.3 billion. A revised list is due this month. The insurance fund had $52.8 billion as of March 31.
The FDIC estimated its shutdown of California-based mortgage lender IndyMac might drain as much as 15 percent from the fund. Seven other banks will take about $1.16 billion, or about 2 percent.
The potential $9.16 billion in withdrawals would be the highest since the insurance account was created in 1933, Diane Ellis, the FDIC’s associate director of financial-risk management, said in a telephone interview. Bank failures pulled a record $6.9 billion from the fund in 1988 during the savings- and-loan collapse, Ellis said.
Russian Invasion of Georgia Moving Beyond South Ossetia
August 11th, 2008It’s extremely difficult to find information on this conflict that’s even remotely clean. The Western and Russian press organizations are all running in maximum propaganda mode.
There are no protagonists here at all. What we have is a mob war; the underlying nature of which isn’t clear yet. Georgia carried out atrocities when it unleashed a blitzkrieg on South Ossetia. The Russian response has intentionally targeted civilian areas, as well as Georgian civilian/economic infrastructure. WarNerd provides brutal summary of this troubled backwater. (This region could make the former Yugoslavia look like a bunch of hippies holding hands in a circle.)
The Georgian leadership has clearly had its, “Oh Shit” moment and is trying to stop this thing, but the Russians aren’t standing down. In fact, they’re expanding the operation. As Russian troops, tanks and aircraft pour into Georgia proper, the U.S… uses big words.
What are the Russians going to go for here?
Is the U.S. as flatfooted at it appears? Or, is the corpse of Georgia being served up on a platter for Russia in exchange for future cooperation on Iran?
Maybe it’s a simple mob war. (I suppose anything’s possible.) Georgians killed Russians and Russians killed Georgians, but then kicked it up a notch by bombing Georgian military installations, ports, etc. You cut off my finger, I’ll cut off your head. Sound fair? Good. Don’t f*ck with South Ossetia (meaning Russia) again.
What I’m watching for, hoping for, is that NATO and the U.S. stays out of this. If they do, it means that the U.S. sold Georgia out to Russia fair and square, Godfather style. For what? Maybe there will be more big words against Russia and some kind of slap on the wrist, but somehow, Russia will get away with something that it wanted in the first place and for years; mainly, getting a U.S. puppet state off its border…
What’s unthinkable is that the U.S./NATO will somehow enter this conflict against Russia. I haven’t had a nightmare about nuclear winter for a number of years, and I’d like to keep it that way. As such, I’ll just leave that in the “unthinkable” category for now.
Via: AP:
Russia opened a second front of fighting in Georgia on Monday, sending armored vehicles beyond two breakaway provinces and seizing a military base and police stations in the country’s west, the Georgian government and a Russian official said.
The new forays into Georgia — even as Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili on signed a cease-fire pledge — appeared to show Russian determination to subdue the small, U.S.-backed country, which has been pressing for NATO membership.
The latest developments indicate that Russian troops have invaded Georgia proper from the separatist province of Abkhazia while most Georgian forces are locked up in fighting around another breakaway region of South Ossetia.
The West has sharply criticized Russia’s military response to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia as disproportionate, and the world’s seven largest economic powers urged Russia on Monday to accept an immediate cease-fire and agree to international mediation.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her colleagues from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations spoke by telephone and pledged their support for a negotiated solution to the conflict that has been raging since Friday between the former Soviet state and Russia, a State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the call had not yet been formally announced.
Nana Intskerveli, the Georgian Defense Ministry’s spokeswoman, said Russian armored personnel carriers rolled into the base in Senaki, about 20 miles inland from the Black Sea port of Poti.
Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said Russian forces also took over police stations in the town of Zugdidi — about 20 miles from the base and also outside Abkhazia.
In Moscow, a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to give his name, confirmed the move into Senaki and said it was intended to prevent Georgian troops from concentrating.
The move followed Russia’s warning to Georgian forces west of Abkhazia to lay down arms or face a Russian military action. Senaki is located about 30 miles east of the Inguri River, which separates Abkhazia from Georgia proper.
More: Georgia Fight Spreads, Moscow Issues Ultimatum
U.S. Arms Cache Found in Kyrgyzstan
August 11th, 2008Via: Kommersant:
The U.S. embassy in Kyrgyzstan has found itself embroiled in scandal after the country’s interior ministry announced that a hoard of U.S.-made weapons has been found in a house in Bishkek rented by U.S. citizens. The embassy hurriedly stated that the weapons were intended for antiterrorism exercises, but Kyrgyz enforcement agencies have not confirmed that. The news is the talk of Kyrgyzstan. The prosecutor general has begun an investigation.
Local police found 53 firearms, including large-caliber guns, grenade launchers, machineguns, pistols, sniper’s rifles and more than 15,000 rounds of ammunition of various sizes. According to Kyrgyz Deputy Minister of the Interior Temirkan Subanov, there were two employees of the U.S. embassy with diplomatic immunity and ten members of the American military, allegedly in the country to train Kyrgyz special forces. “Interior Ministry staff questioned them about the weapons and ammunition to determine their purpose. We received information from residents of a new house that they were constantly moving things into and out of that house. None of the U.S. citizens were detained or arrested. All of them were simply questioned,” Subanov said.
The U.S. embassy quickly issued a statement saying that the cache was in the country with the permission and at the request of Kyrgyz authorities. The Kyrgyz Defense Ministry, State Committee for National Security, border service and national guard say that they have no training with Americans planned. Only the narcotics control agency had such plans, but they did not include weapons. Kyrgyz officials are not commenting on the situation. Observers are both pointing out reasons to be alarmed at the incident and reasoning that the United States has little motivation to create a provocation in Kyrgyzstan.
Theory on Dollar Short Squeeze
August 11th, 2008Via: GoldMoney:
So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.
When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.
On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve’s custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.
Related: U.S. Dollar Index: Bears, the Squeeze Is On
Research Credit: ES
Cryptogon Readers Send Contributions
August 11th, 2008Thank you.
JH $50
CA $20
DJ $25
RL $30
JG $30
Pookie $75
IL $90 (Farmlet)
Chinese Created Simulated Fireworks Display for Broadcast During Opening Ceremony
August 11th, 2008I’ve decided to mostly ignore the nonsense associated with the Totalitarian Games 2008, but I couldn’t resist posting this.
Via: Telegraph:
As the ceremony got under way with a dramatic, drummed countdown, viewers watching at home and on giant screens inside the Bird’s Nest National Stadium watched as a series of giant footprints outlined in fireworks processed gloriously above the city from Tiananmen Square.
What they did not realise was that what they were watching was in fact computer graphics, meticulously created over a period of months and inserted into the coverage electronically at exactly the right moment.
The fireworks were there for real, outside the stadium. But those responsible for filming the extravaganza decided in advance it would be impossible to capture all 29 footprints from the air.
As a result, only the last, visible from the camera stands inside the Bird’s Nest was captured on film.
The trick was revealed in a local Chinese newspaper, the Beijing Times, at the weekend.
Gao Xiaolong, head of the visual effects team for the ceremony, said it had taken almost a year to create the 55-second sequence. Meticulous efforts were made to ensure the sequence was as unnoticeable as possible: they sought advice from the Beijing meteorological office as to how to recreate the hazy effects of Beijing’s smog at night, and inserted a slight camera shake effect to simulate the idea that it was filmed from a helicopter.
“Seeing how it worked out, it was still a bit too bright compared to the actual fireworks,” he said. “But most of the audience thought it was filmed live – so that was mission accomplished.”
Related: Singing in Opening Ceremony Also Faked
Oil-Rich Fund Eyeing Foreclosed U.S. Homes
August 10th, 2008Is this a nonsense story to trick people on the sidelines into flinching and buying? Or is it real? I don’t know.
I have to wonder, because the next phase, the Alt-A and prime phase is just getting started. You’d think the people with billions of dollars burning holes in their pockets would know better—but maybe not.
Via: New York Post:
There’s a new land grab starting in America.
Foreign money, which up to now has focused its attention on investing in iconic commercial real estate – like Barneys New York and the Chrysler Building – is now moving to scoop up tens of thousands of discounted foreclosed homes across the country.
One sovereign fund, said to have earmarked $29 billion to purchase foreclosed residential real estate, recently hired a West Coast mortgage broker and is starting to search for bargains, The Post has learned.
The search, which is being carried out, in part, by Field Check Group mortgage consultant Mark Hanson, who was retained by the broker, Steve Iversen, is concentrating on single- and multi-family REO (real estate owned) homes, or homes that have already been taken over by the mortgagee.
Neither Iversen nor Hanson would disclose the name of the client, but sources told The Post it’s a sovereign fund.
The unidentified fund joins individual US investors, hedge funds and Wall Street banks in kicking the tires of REO homes, which have fallen in value so much that they are now tempting investments.
A sovereign fund would have two distinct advantages over other investors – the depressed value of the US dollar makes the homes a bargain, and sovereign funds have deeper pockets.
The sovereign fund of Abu Dhabi, for example, has a reported $875 billion in assets, while Norway has $391 billion, Singapore has $303 billion and Kuwait has $264 billion in their sovereign funds, which are funded by proceeds from oil sales.
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is expected to announce next month what type of US distressed assets they will be investing in and real estate is at the top of the list, according to a report in Financial Times last week.
ADIA did not respond to an e-mail question about REO investments.
So far, prices on bulk sales of REO properties vary based on location and are selling from 60 cents to 80 cents on the dollar. Hanson started out offering 40 cents on the dollar for about $2.5 billion worth of California properties owned by IndyMac and Washington Mutual but was turned down. The banks refused to comment.
Hanson is now willing to pay 50 cents to 60 cents on the dollar for a collection of California REOs worth at least $500 million.
In fact, this week Hanson’s team negotiated a $2 billion package mixed with homes across the country for 31 cents on the dollar. While progress seems slow, Hanson reminds us this is only a nine-month old industry.
Has Cheney Been Fitted with a Kill Switch?
August 10th, 2008Dick Cheney’s life depends on a device that can be accessed remotely and commanded arbitrarily with readily available hardware and software.
In 2001, Cheney received a Medtronic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. See: Device in Cheney’s Chest Helps Veep’s Ticker Keep Time:
July 2, 2001 — Small technology is at the heart of an advanced pacemaker implanted in Vice President Dick Cheney’s chest on Saturday.
The Medtronic GEM III DR, a pacemaker and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), now constantly records Cheney’s heart activity and can speed up or slow down an irregular rhythm. And it’s all in a package the size of a small pager.
MEMS accelerometer, which monitors the heart’s activity level, works alongside a microprocessor to detect the level and deliver more electricity to keep the heart in rhythm. In the case of the ICD, the device delivers a high-energy electrical shock to bring the ventricles back to normal rhythm.
“It’s an emergency room in your chest,” said Bob Hanvik, a spokesman for Medtronic Inc., the Minneapolis-based market leader in pacemaker and ICD sales. “It actually recognizes when a potentially life-threatening arrhythmia might occur, and gives you a shock before it can escalate to life-threatening.
“That’s why Cheney described it as an ‘insurance policy.’ … Ultimately, the hope is it would never have to deliver therapy, but it’s nice to know it’s there.”
After reading the recently released paper, Pacemakers and Implantable Cardiac Defibrillators: Software Radio Attacks and Zero-Power Defenses, it would appear that the U.S. Secret Service will want to review Cheney’s, “insurance policy.”
Maybe they can wheel him around in a Faraday cage in the meantime???
Note: I’ve disabled comments on this post because they could easily result in problems with the U.S. Secret Service.
Via: Venture Beat:
The Defcon conference is the wild and woolly version of Black Hat for the unwashed masses of hackers. It always has its share of unusual hacks. The oddest so far is a collaborative academic effort where medical device security researchers have figured out how to turn off someone’s pacemaker via remote control. They previously disclosed the paper at a conference in May. But the larger point of the vulnerability of all wirelessly-controlled medical devices remains a hot topic here at the show in Las Vegas.
Let’s not have a collective heart attack, at least not yet. The people on the right side of the security fence are the ones who have figured this out so far. But this has very serious implications for the 2.6 million people who had pacemakers installed from 1990 to 2002 (the stats available from the researchers). It also presents product liability problems for the five companies that make pace makers.
…
Fu and Halperin said they used a cheap $1,000 system to mimic the control mechanism. It included a software radio, GNU radio software, and other electronics. They could use that to eavesdrop on private data such as the identity of the patient, the doctor, the diagnosis, and the pacemaker instructions. They figured out how to control the pacemaker with their device.
“You can induce the test mode, drain the device battery, and turn off therapies,” Halperin said.
Translation: you can kill the patient.


