Russia Stages Raid Near Key Oil Pipeline

August 9th, 2008

Via: AFP:

Russian warplanes on Saturday staged a raid near a major international oil pipeline that runs through Georgia but did not damage it, Georgia’s prime minister said.

The 1,774-kilometre (1,109-mile) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline is the world’s second longest and takes oil from Azerbaijan to Western markets.

Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze told Georgian television: “The area of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline was bombed by Russian planes. Miraculously, the pipeline was not damaged.”

The BTC has a capacity of 1.2 million barrels of oil a day but is currently shut down after an explosion in a Turkish section which has been claimed by Kurdish rebels.


U.S. TELLS RUSSIA TO PULL FORCES OUT OF GEORGIA

August 9th, 2008

Via: Reuters:

The United States told Russia on Friday to withdraw its forces from U.S. ally Georgia and stop its air attacks on the tiny Caucasus state following fighting in the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

“We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia’s territorial integrity, and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a statement.

Rice issued her statement as Georgia, a former Soviet state that now wants to join NATO, said it would declare martial law and battled to get control of the rebel enclave, which was fortified by Russian forces.

Georgia said Russian fighter jets bombed container tankers and a shipbuilding plant in the port of Poti, prompting Washington’s sharpest rebuke of Russia since the crisis began.

“We deplore the Russian military action in Georgia, which is a violation of Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity,” U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad told reporters at a U.N. Security Council meeting in New York.

The State Department summoned the Charge d’Affaires at Russia’s Embassy in Washington, Aleksander Darchiyev, to see Rice’s deputy John Negroponte, who pressed Moscow to stop its military activities in Georgia.

“The deputy secretary said that we deplore today’s Russian attacks by strategic bombers and missiles, which are threatening civilian lives,” said State Department spokesman Robert Wood of Negroponte’s meeting with the Russian diplomat.

“These attacks mark a dangerous and disproportionate escalation of tension,” he added.

Both Rice and the White House urged an immediate cease-fire in South Ossetia, and U.S. officials said they would send an envoy to the region to help mediate.

As fighting raged in and around the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said Russia and Georgia were at war.

Rice said the United States was working with its European partners to launch international mediation, and “we urgently seek Russia’s support of these efforts.”


The Price Is the Same; It’s the Size That Shrinks

August 9th, 2008

Via: New York Times:

IMAGINE what would happen if the price of gasoline remained the same, but instead of selling it by the gallon, gas stations knocked down the size a few ounces.

It might seem that you were paying the same amount — about $4 a gallon — but you wouldn’t be. You would be getting, say, a mere 120 ounces instead of 128, and you would be paying more for gas.

If gas stations labeled the change clearly, would there be riots in the street? Would weary consumers simply shrug and pay the same for less at the pump?

We don’t really know how people would react. But something very much like this is already occurring at the supermarket, what Tod Marks, a senior editor at Consumer Reports, calls “the incredibly shrinking package” strategy.

The repackaging trick isn’t new. Who hasn’t opened a box of cereal or a bag of chips and marveled at the abundance of air with the food? But Mr. Marks, who tracks the grocery industry, said, “It’s definitely happening a lot more than it used to.”

According to a study conducted this summer by the Consumer Reports National Research Center, shrinkage is occurring across a broad spectrum of goods, Mr. Marks said. The study will be published by Consumer Reports in October.


Energy Pipeline That Supplies West Threatened by Georgia Conflict

August 9th, 2008

Via: Times:

The conflict that has erupted in the Caucasus has set alarm bells ringing because of Georgia’s pivotal role in the global energy market.

Georgia has no significant oil or gas reserves of its own but it is a key transit point for oil from the Caspian and central Asia destined for Europe and the US.

Crucially, it is the only practical route from this increasingly important producer region that avoids both Russia and Iran.

The 1,770km (1,100 miles) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which entered service only last year, pumps up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from Baku in Azerbaijan to Yumurtalik, Turkey, where it is loaded on to supertankers for delivery to Europe and the US. Around 249km of the route passes through Georgia, with parts running only 55km from South Ossetia.

The security of the BTC pipeline, depicted in the James Bond film The World is Not Enough, has been a primary concern since before its construction.

The first major attack on the pipeline took place only last week – not in Georgia but in Turkey where part of it was destroyed by PKK separatist rebels.

Output from the pipeline, which is 30 per cent owned by BP and carries more than 1 per cent of the world’s supply, is likely to be on hold for several weeks while the fire is extinguished and the damage repaired.

But the threat of another attack by separatists in Georgia itself is very real.

Only a few days before the Turkish explosion, Georgian separatists threatened to sabotage the pipeline if hostilities continued.

The latest eruption of violence could easily spur fresh attacks. The BTC pipeline, which is buried throughout most of its length to make sabotage more difficult, was a politically highly charged project. It was firmly opposed by Russia, which views the Caucasus as its own sphere of influence and wants central Asian oil to be exported via its own territory.

Russia also backs the South Ossetian and Abkhazian separatists in Georgia and relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have curdled into outright hostility in recent months.

The BTC pipeline, which cost $3 billion to build, is a key plank of US foreign policy because it reduces Western reliance on oil from both the Middle East and Russia.


RUSSIAN FORCES ATTACKING TARGETS THROUGHOUT GEORGIA

August 9th, 2008

Via: CNN:

Bombs rocked Tbilisi early Saturday morning as the fight between Georgia and Russia over a breakaway region intensified and moved into the Georgian capital.

Government buildings, including the Parliament, were evacuated when the bombs fell.

Heavy casualties have reported on both sides since Russian forces moved Friday into South Ossetia, a pro-Russian autonomous region of Georgia.

Russian bombers were targeting Georgia’s economic infrastructure, National Security Council secretary Alexander Lomaia said, including the country’s largest Black Sea port, Poti, and the main road connecting the southern part of Georgia with the east and the airport.

Georgian television reported that the port had been destroyed.

Georgia, a former Soviet state, sent troops into South Ossetia on Thursday, aiming to crack down on the separatists, who want independence or unification with North Ossetia, which is in Russia. Russia responded Friday, sending troops into the Georgian province where it had peacekeepers stationed.


Vista’s Security Rendered Completely Useless by New Exploit

August 8th, 2008

Put a fork in it.

Via: NeoWin:

This week at the Black Hat Security Conference two security researchers will discuss their findings which could completely bring Windows Vista to its knees.

Mark Dowd of IBM Internet Security Systems (ISS) and Alexander Sotirov, of VMware Inc. have discovered a technique that can be used to bypass all memory protection safeguards that Microsoft built into Windows Vista. These new methods have been used to get around Vista’s Address Space Layout Randomization (ASLR), Data Execution Prevention (DEP) and other protections by loading malicious content through an active web browser. The researchers were able to load whatever content they wanted into any location they wished on a user’s machine using a variety of scripting languages, such as Java, ActiveX and even .NET objects. This feat was achieved by taking advantage of the way that Internet Explorer (and other browsers) handle active scripting in the Operating System.

While this may seem like any standard security hole, other researchers say that the work is a major breakthrough and there is very little that Microsoft can do to fix the problems. These attacks work differently than other security exploits, as they aren’t based on any new Windows vulnerabilities, but instead take advantage of the way Microsoft chose to guard Vista’s fundamental architecture. According to Dino Dai Zovi, a popular security researcher, “the genius of this is that it’s completely reusable. They have attacks that let them load chosen content to a chosen location with chosen permissions. That’s completely game over.”

According to Microsoft, many of the defenses added to Windows Vista (and Windows Server 2008) were added to stop all host-based attacks. For example, ASLR is meant to stop attackers from predicting key memory addresses by randomly moving a process’ stack, heap and libraries. While this technique is very useful against memory corruption attacks, it would be rendered useless against Dowd and Sotirov’s new method. “This stuff just takes a knife to a large part of the security mesh Microsoft built into Vista,” said Dai Zovi to SearchSecurity.com. “If you think about the fact that .NET loads DLLs into the browser itself and then Microsoft assumes they’re safe because they’re .NET objects, you see that Microsoft didn’t think about the idea that these could be used as stepping stones for other attacks. This is a real tour de force.”


RUSSIAN ARMOR SENT INTO GEORGIA

August 8th, 2008

It’s war.

What will NATO do now???

Via: Telegraph:

Russia sent troops and dozens of tanks into the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia today, throwing the two former Soviet neighbours into a sudden yet undeclared state of war.

In the most serious regional crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, at least 50 tanks – and possibly many more – rumbled through the Roki tunnel, which cuts through the Caucasus mountains separating South Ossetia from the Russian province of North Ossetia.

“One hundred and fifty Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other vehicles have entered South Ossetia,” President Saakashvili of Georgia told reporters in Tbilisi. “This is a clear intrusion on another country’s territory. We have Russian tanks on our territory, jets on our territory in broad daylight.”

Mr Saakashvili added that Georgian forces had downed two Russian jet fighters over Georgian territory.


Two Additional United States Aircraft Carriers Are Heading to the Gulf

August 8th, 2008

Right off the bat: Take it or leave it.

I wasn’t going to post this because it’s almost like a “Fool me once / fool me twice” kind of thing every few months.

I believe that there are always two carrier groups operating in and around the Persian Gulf. So, if this means that four will be on station… yep, that might be interesting.

So, for whatever it’s worth…

Via: Jerusalem Post:

Two additional United States naval aircraft carriers are heading to the Gulf and the Red Sea, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper Kuwait Times.

Kuwait began finalizing its “emergency war plan” on being told the vessels were bound for the region.

The US Navy would neither confirm nor deny that carriers were en route. US Fifth Fleet Combined Maritime Command located in Bahrain said it could not comment due to what a spokesman termed “force-protection policy.”

While the Kuwaiti daily did not name the ships it believed were heading for the Middle East, The Media Line’s defense analyst said they could be the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the USS Ronald Reagan.

Within the last month, the Roosevelt completed an exercise along the US east coast focusing on communication among navies of different countries. It has since been declared ready for operational duties. The Reagan, currently with the Seventh Fleet, had just set sail from Japan.

The Seventh Fleet area of operation stretches from the East Coast of Africa to the International Date Line.

Meanwhile, the Arabic news agency Moheet reported at the end of July that an unnamed American destroyer, accompanied by two Israeli naval vessels traveled through the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean. A week earlier, a US nuclear submarine accompanied by a destroyer and a supply ship moved into the Mediterranean, according to Moheet.

Currently there are two US naval battle groups operating in the Gulf: one is an aircraft carrier group, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, which carries some 65 fighter aircraft. The other group is headed by the USS Peleliu which maintains a variety of planes and strike helicopters.

The ship movements coincide with the latest downturn in relations between Washington and Teheran. The US and Iran are at odds over Iran’s nuclear program, which the Bush administration claims is aimed at producing material for nuclear weapons; however, Teheran argues it is only for power generation.

Kuwait, like other Arab countries in the Gulf, fears it will be caught in the middle should the US decide to launch an air strike against Iran if negotiations fail. The Kuwaitis are finalizing details of their security, humanitarian and vital services, the newspaper reported.

The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman – lie just across the Gulf from Iran. Generals in the Iranian military have repeatedly warned that American interests in the region would be targeted if Iran is subjected to any military strike by the US or its Western allies.

Bahrain hosts the US Fifth Fleet, while there is a sizeable American base in Qatar. It is assumed the US also has military personnel in the other Gulf states, The Media Line’s defense analyst said.

Iran is thought to have intelligence operatives working in the GCC states, according to Dubai-based military analysts.

The standoff between the US and Iran has left the Arab nations’ political leaders in something of a bind, as they were being used as pawns by Washington and Teheran, according to The Media Line analyst.

Iran has offered them economic and industrial sweeteners, while the US is boosting their defense capabilities. US President George W. Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have paid visits to the GCC states in a bid to win their support.


FIGHTING RAGES IN GEORGIAN SEPARATIST CAPITAL

August 8th, 2008

Via: Reuters:

Fighting raged in and around the capital of Georgia’s breakaway South Ossetia region on Friday as Georgian troops, backed by tanks and warplanes, pounded separatist forces in a bid to re-take the territory.

A Reuters correspondent said the roar of warplanes and the explosions of heavy shells were deafening more than three km (two miles) from the town. Many houses were ablaze.

Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, said his forces had “freed” the greater part of the territory’s capital, Tskhinvali, and ordered a full-scale mobilization of military reservists.

Russia confirmed fighting in the centre of town.

Georgia said four Russian jets entered Georgian airspace and dropped bombs on two places just south of the territory, which has been outside central government control since the 1990s.

There was no immediate comment on the report from Moscow.

The crisis, the first to confront Russian President Dmitry Medvedev since he took office in May, has fuelled fears of full-blown war in a region emerging as a key energy transit route and where Russia and the West are vying for influence.

NATO, the European Union and the United States, a vocal Georgian ally, all urged a halt to the bloodshed while Moscow vowed to respond after it said several Russian peacekeepers were killed by Georgian artillery fire.


U.S. Dollar Index: Bears, the Squeeze Is On

August 8th, 2008

WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.

NOTE: I’m posting this ASAP, without this week’s candle close fully printed.

Who? What? Where? Why? How is the dollar going up?

I have no idea, but let’s take a look at the big picture:


U.S. Dollar Index, Weekly Interval

While the larger downtrend is still intact, we’re seeing the dollar attempting to retest the upper channel resistance. Again, don’t ask me how, because I don’t know. Lots of people, including me, thought that the dollar was about to retest the all time low over the last couple of weeks. Lots of people, including me, were wrong.

Instead, we’re getting squeezed here, quite violently.

On the shorter intervals, the dollar looks very strong. While that’s true, look at what’s just overhead. That’s a hard resistance.

The dollar has been beaten down so far and for so long that it has been easy for dollar bears to get lulled into complacency. Anytime an asset starts to look like it’s giving free money away to investors, watch out! Shorting the dollar has been just such a ticket for a long time. Squeezes are pretty easy to pull off.

Now, while I’m of the opinion that dollar bears are being squeezed here, short term, we need to keep a close eye on this now because it has the potential to turn very ugly. I encourage everyone to draw their own lines in the sand.

Here’s mine:

I’m not staying short the dollar if we get a weekly green candle close above that upper channel line.

I know, the snake handling gold bugs and feral dollar bears are frothing at the mouth, speaking in tongues and pulling out what’s left of their hair right now, citing thousands of articles and endless evidence about why the dollar will collapse further. None of it matters. I’ve allocated my money along those lines, but, unlike a lot of these guys, it’s not a religious conviction for me.

I’m content to watch these antics up to that point (top blue line), but that’s it. If the USDX breaks up and out of its long term, down trending channel, I’ll start holding dollars again, instead of trying to exchange them for something else as soon as possible, like I’ve been doing for the last two years. I should have been holding some US$ all along, as a hedge, as per my recommendations on Cryptogon. But I didn’t take my own advice…

I don’t really expect it to break out, but I want to get the word out early so it’s clear: IT COULD HAPPEN. Devise your strategy in advance.

My guess is that there’s a better than average chance that it’s going bounce off that resistance. Why? The weekly stochastic is heading into extreme territory with a hard resistance overhead. Looking ahead a few days to a couple of weeks, aggressive dollar bears who are looking to take on new short positions might have an interesting opportunity there. Above that top blue line, though, watch out.

UPDATE: Gold Longs Hail Mary

Chart pic. The beauty of this is that you’ll know if it worked, or not, really fast!


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