S&P Cuts, May Cut Up to $534 Billion of Subprime Bonds
January 31st, 2008Via: Reuters:
Standard & Poor’s on Wednesday said it cut or may cut its ratings on $270 billion worth of U.S. mortgage-backed securities while putting $264 billion of collateralized debt obligations on watch for a possible downgrade.
The ratings action affects 6,389 classes of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities backed by first-lien subprime loans and 1,953 ratings from 572 global CDOs backed by asset-backed securities and other CDOs.
S&P’s actions on mortgage-backed securities follow its announcement on January 15 of further changes and planned changes to its methods for analyzing mortgage-backed securities and CDOs, respectively.
Earlier this month, S&P raised its expectations of losses on subprime loans originated in 2006 to 19 percent from 14 percent.
“Today’s rating actions incorporate our most recent economic assumptions and reflect our expectation of further defaults and losses on the underlying mortgage loans,” S&P said.
S&P slashed the ratings on $34.7 billion of RMBS originated in 2006 while placing another $136 billion under review for potential downgrade. In addition, S&P cut $15.4 billion of RMBS securities from 2007, while placing $34.8 billion on review for downgrade, it said. In addition, it affirmed the ratings on 1,735 RMBS classes from 2006 and 691 RMBS tranches from 2007.
The rating agency said the CDO downgrades and credit reviews were a result of RMBS credit deterioration and overall stress affecting the residential mortgage market. CDO managers were large buyers of RMBS, which they layered into their securities over recent years.
“The housing market, especially the subprime sector, will continue to decline before it improves and housing prices will come under stress,” said S&P. “We expect losses to continue to increase with borrowers experiencing rising loan payments as adjustable rate mortgages reset.”
Tough Call: Sold DBA
January 31st, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
Just a quick FYI: I took profit on my entire DBA position. It could easily go higher (Bullish Fibonacci fans intact no matter how you draw them, and beginnings of a symmetrical triangle?), but we have a lower high on the daily chart, lower volume on each of the past four up days and MACD cross down. It may also be about to BARF. Taken together, I started to believe the fear that I’ve had for a while about the weekly chart being way overdone. I’ll look at buying it again when the weekly stochastics and RSI unwind.

DBA Daily
Best of luck to DBA traders.
Cut Fiber: Internet Services in India and Egypt Disrupted
January 30th, 2008Via: Reuters:
A breakdown in an international undersea cable network badly disrupted Internet links to India and Egypt on Wednesday.
Egypt’s Telecommunications Ministry said a communications cable in the Mediterranean was cut, disrupting 70 percent of the country’s Internet network.
The ministry said in a statement it was not known how the cable was cut but that services would probably take several days to return to normal.
India reported serious disruptions to its services and one Indian Internet service provider linked the problem to the Egyptian outage.
“There has been a cable cut on several cable systems in Alexandria, Egypt which has impacted internet connectivity in India,” Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL), an internet service provider, said in a statement.
VSNL said its service had been “largely restored” by diverting to another cable.
India said it had lost more than half of its capacity.
“There has been a 50 to 60 percent cut in bandwidth,” Rajesh Chharia, president of the Internet Service Providers’ Association of India, told Reuters.
He told the Headlines Today news channel that a “degraded” service would be activated by Wednesday night, but full restoration will take 10 to 15 days.
Chharia said companies, including some of India’s many outsourcing businesses, had been affected.
Former Chief Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley: Head for the Hills
January 30th, 2008Via: Bloomberg:
Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with “seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.”
The “etc.” must mean guns.
“A few rounds over the approaching brigands’ heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,” he writes in his new book, “Wealth, War and Wisdom.”
Biggs is no paranoid survivalist. He was chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley before leaving in 2003 to form hedge fund Traxis Partners. He doesn’t lock and load until the last page of this smart look at how World War II warped share prices, gutted wealth and remains a warning to investors. His message: Listen to markets, learn from history and prepare for the worst.
Research Credit: BW
Poor Haitians Resort to Eating Dirt
January 30th, 2008Via: AP:
It was lunchtime in one of Haiti’s worst slums, and Charlene Dumas was eating mud. With food prices rising, Haiti’s poorest can’t afford even a daily plate of rice, and some take desperate measures to fill their bellies. Charlene, 16 with a 1-month-old son, has come to rely on a traditional Haitian remedy for hunger pangs: cookies made of dried yellow dirt from the country’s central plateau.
The mud has long been prized by pregnant women and children here as an antacid and source of calcium. But in places like Cite Soleil, the oceanside slum where Charlene shares a two-room house with her baby, five siblings and two unemployed parents, cookies made of dirt, salt and vegetable shortening have become a regular meal.
“When my mother does not cook anything, I have to eat them three times a day,” Charlene said. Her baby, named Woodson, lay still across her lap, looking even thinner than the slim 6 pounds 3 ounces he weighed at birth.
Though she likes their buttery, salty taste, Charlene said the cookies also give her stomach pains. “When I nurse, the baby sometimes seems colicky too,” she said.
Food prices around the world have spiked because of higher oil prices, needed for fertilizer, irrigation and transportation. Prices for basic ingredients such as corn and wheat are also up sharply, and the increasing global demand for biofuels is pressuring food markets as well.
The problem is particularly dire in the Caribbean, where island nations depend on imports and food prices are up 40 percent in places.
The global price hikes, together with floods and crop damage from the 2007 hurricane season, prompted the U.N. Food and Agriculture Agency to declare states of emergency in Haiti and several other Caribbean countries. Caribbean leaders held an emergency summit in December to discuss cutting food taxes and creating large regional farms to reduce dependence on imports.
At the market in the La Saline slum, two cups of rice now sell for 60 cents, up 10 cents from December and 50 percent from a year ago. Beans, condensed milk and fruit have gone up at a similar rate, and even the price of the edible clay has risen over the past year by almost $1.50. Dirt to make 100 cookies now costs $5, the cookie makers say.
Still, at about 5 cents apiece, the cookies are a bargain compared to food staples. About 80 percent of people in Haiti live on less than $2 a day and a tiny elite controls the economy.
Merchants truck the dirt from the central town of Hinche to the La Saline market, a maze of tables of vegetables and meat swarming with flies. Women buy the dirt, then process it into mud cookies in places such as Fort Dimanche, a nearby shanty town.
Carrying buckets of dirt and water up ladders to the roof of the former prison for which the slum is named, they strain out rocks and clumps on a sheet, and stir in shortening and salt. Then they pat the mixture into mud cookies and leave them to dry under the scorching sun.
The finished cookies are carried in buckets to markets or sold on the streets.
A reporter sampling a cookie found that it had a smooth consistency and sucked all the moisture out of the mouth as soon as it touched the tongue. For hours, an unpleasant taste of dirt lingered.
Assessments of the health effects are mixed. Dirt can contain deadly parasites or toxins, but can also strengthen the immunity of fetuses in the womb to certain diseases, said Gerald N. Callahan, an immunology professor at Colorado State University who has studied geophagy, the scientific name for dirt-eating.
Haitian doctors say depending on the cookies for sustenance risks malnutrition.
“Trust me, if I see someone eating those cookies, I will discourage it,” said Dr. Gabriel Thimothee, executive director of Haiti’s health ministry.
Marie Noel, 40, sells the cookies in a market to provide for her seven children. Her family also eats them.
“I’m hoping one day I’ll have enough food to eat, so I can stop eating these,” she said. “I know it’s not good for me.”
Related: The Failed State and You
Washington Post: Identities of Storm Worm Operators Are Known to Authorities
January 30th, 2008This is interesting, but take your pick about what to believe.
Via: Washington Post:
Dmitri Alperovitch, director of intelligence analysis and hosted security for San Jose, Calif.-based Secure Computing, said federal law enforcement officials who need to know have already learned the identities of those responsible for running the Storm worm network, but that U.S. authorities have thus far been prevented from bringing those responsible to justice due to a lack of cooperation from officials in St. Petersburg, Russia, where the Storm worm authors are thought to reside. In a recent investigative series on cyber crime featured on washingtonpost.com, St. Petersburg was fingered as the host city for one of the Internet’s most profligate and cyber-crime enabling operation — the Russian Business Network.
Alperovitch blames the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the political influence of operatives within the Federal Security Service (the former Soviet KGB) for the protection he says is apparently afforded to cybercrime outfits such as RBN and the Storm worm gang.
“The right people now know who the Storm worm authors are,” Alperovitch said. “It’s incredibly hard because a lot of the FSB leadership and Putin himself originate from there, where there are a great deal of people with connections in high places.”
FBI Investigates Sub-Prime Crisis
January 30th, 2008Things started to get interesting when They sent a memo to all employees on what to say to anyone who presented themselves as auditors or investigators. We were to refer them to some flunkie.
I thought, “Oh goodie, we’re going to get raided by a three-letter agency and guys wearing guns and blue wind-breakers are going to wheel the servers out on dollies! PHBs are going to be handcuffed and frog marched into a waiting paddy wagon!”
—Life Inside a Wall Street Chop Shop
I’ve set up a news alert for “FBI subprime [Name of Wall Street Megafirm that I used to work for]”. That company was one of the ringleaders of the securitization racket. That’s why They were in the subprime game in the first place. They weren’t interested in actually making the loans. The BIG money was made in selling the toxic waste to some sucker (bank, pension fund, insurance company, clueless country) at the end of the month. Every month. It will be very interesting to see how They get out of this one—which They will, I have no doubt.
My guess is that They have devised plans to frame the executive management staffs of the subprime firms They acquired. Oh man. It all makes sense now. I used to think, “Why are They keeping these coked-out slobs around?”
Patsies.
The Porsche driving A-holes—that came with the acquisitions—are probably going to be the patsies.
Via: BBC:
The FBI is investigating 14 companies embroiled in the sub-prime mortgage crisis as part of a crackdown on improper lending.
It did not identify the companies but said the investigation encompassed developers, sub-prime lenders and investment banks.
FBI officials said the agency was looking at instances of accounting fraud and insider trading.
The cases could lead to potential civil or criminal charges, the FBI said.
The FBI said it viewed mortgage fraud as an increasing threat to the national economy.
It said that there had been 1,200 cases of mortgage fraud for the 2007 financial year compared with just 400 in 2006.
The crisis in the sub-prime lending market has hit financial markets worldwide.
Joint investigation
The FBI said it was investigating the cases with the US market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The SEC has opened about three dozen investigations into the collapse of the sub-prime market.
Targets of the SEC probe include Swiss bank UBS and US banks Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, Reuters news agency reported.
It was not clear whether any of these firms were involved in the FBI investigation.
The sub-prime market is focused on providing home loans to those with poor or limited credit histories.
Many of these borrowers have been unable to keep up with payments and face losing their homes.
The wider crisis emerged as many of these mortgages were converted into financial instruments and sold on to investors including the big investment banks.
Defaults on these loans caused a steep drop in the value of related investments and has led to more than $100bn of losses at banks worldwide.
Leaked UK Government Document Reveals Plan to “Coerce” Brits Into National ID Register
January 30th, 2008Via: BoingBoing:
“Various forms of coercion, such as designation of the application process for indentity documents issued by UK Ministers (e.g. passports), and and option to stimulate applications in a manageable way. Designation should be considered as part of a managed rollout strategy, specifically in relation to UK documents. There are advantages to designation of documents associated with particular target groups e.g. young people who may be applying for their first Driving Licence.”
…
UK campaigners NO2ID this morning enlisted the help of bloggers across the world to spread a leaked government document describing how the British government intends to go about “coercing” its citizens onto a National Identity Register. The ‘ID card’ is revealed as little more than a cover to create a official dossier and trackable ID for every UK resident – creating what NO2ID calls ‘the database state’.
Cryptogon Readers Contribute $50 and $20
January 30th, 2008DJ sent $50 and MW sent $20. Thank you.
World’s Most Powerful Rail Gun Delivered to Navy
January 29th, 2008Via: military.com:
For true sci-fi fans, any mention of a real-world rail gun will draw an instant, slightly audible gasp. Instead of relying on chemical propellants — such as gunpowder — a rail gun uses magnetic “rails” to launch a solid, nonexplosive projectile at incredible speed. Theoretically, rail guns would be able to precisely strike targets at extreme ranges, and would negate the risks associated with carrying around tons of explosive ammo. More to the point, they’re cool-sounding, just like lasers.
Which is why the news that BAE Systems has delivered a functional, 32-megajoule Electro-Magnetic Laboratory Rail Gun (32-MJ LRG) to the U.S. Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren, Va., is exciting. Installation of the laboratory launcher is currently under way, and according to BAE, this is the first step toward the Navy’s goal of developing a tactical 64-megajoule ship-mounted weapon.
The lab version doesn’t look particularly menacing — more like a long, belt-fed airport screening device than like a futuristic cannon — but the system will fire rounds at up to Mach 8, drawing on tremendous amounts of electricity to generate the current for each test shot. That, of course, is the problem with rail guns: Like lasers, they’re out of step with modern-day generators and capacitors. Eight and 9-megajoule rail guns have been fired before, but providing 3 million amps of power per shot has been a limitation. At 32 megajoules, this new system appears to be the most powerful rail gun ever built, and the Office of Naval Research is installing additional capacitors at the Dahlgren facility to support it. The planned 64-megajoule weapon, if it’s ever built, could require even more power — a staggering 6 million amps.
Related: EEstor: More Clues Emerge


