Potential for Sucker Rally on the Dollar
March 5th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
There’s potential for a sucker rally on the dollar. Looking at the daily interval chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, we see a stochastic cross up under 20. There’s no way to know if it will rally or not, but I can tell you what often happens in cases like this.
Once a major support is taken out and new lows are in (in this case the support was 74.50), the issue will often retrace back up toward the previous support (which is now overhead resistance).
The point of this post is to to mentally prepare dollar bears for a bounce, while pointing out some levels to watch. The most critical number is 74.50. I shaded the zone between where it is now and 74.50. This is prime sucker bounce territory. Suckers will see a bounce and think, “The bottom is in,” and go long. As suckers load up on long positions, the big boys get ready to blow the support columns.

USDX daily interval
I’ve also drawn the Fibonacci retracement grid from the high on Feb. 7 to the low on Mar. 3. Notice how the 38.2 line is above 74.50?
Maddening, isn’t it? While I don’t expect it to rally above 74.50, if it does, there’s the 38.2 resistance as well as well as 75 a bit higher.
Finally, look at the MACD cross down on the weekly.

USDX weekly interval
We had all those weeks of massive intervention and manipulation which created a lot of noise, and now we’ve got that cross down anyway. In summary, don’t let a short term rally right here rattle your cage too much. I watch this everyday. I’ll revisit the analysis if some of those overhead resistance levels get taken out.
Taking a quick look at gold: It has been whacked out overbought. Expect volatility. Near term support at $955.

Gold daily interval
So far, this recent knock down looks like an attempt to shake the apple tree. That is, as gold was closing in on $1000, big players shook out smaller speculators who came in thinking that $1000 was imminent. In other words, lock profit and use it to buy more gold lower in the run-up to Helicopter Ben’s “Vigorous Response” later this month. If that’s what happened, we could see an ascending triangle start to take shape, but I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself. Like I said, the indicators on the weekly are in overbought territory, just like they have been for months. They’re going to unwind at some point. Too bad there’s no way to know when. Trend lines and Fib fans and retracements are the ways to look at this one on the longer intervals.
In summary, short term shake outs possible on fake dollar rallies/cranks, but the overall uptrend is still very much intact. In fact, I just bought a couple more grams during these recent red candles.
Bernanke: “Vigorous Response”
March 4th, 2008Could a 0.75% cut really be on the table!?
Via: Bloomberg:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, battling the worst housing recession in a quarter century, urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for more borrowers whose home values have declined.
“Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,” Bernanke said in a speech in Orlando, Florida today. “Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.”
Bernanke’s call goes beyond the stance of the Bush administration and previous Fed comments. By comparison, the central bank’s Feb. 27 report to Congress called for lenders to “pursue prudent loan workouts” through means such as modifying mortgage terms and deferring payments.
“Delinquencies and foreclosures likely will continue to rise for a while longer,” Bernanke said in the comments to the Independent Community Bankers of America. “Supply-demand imbalances in many housing markets suggest that some further declines in house prices are likely.”
Subprime borrowers are about to see their mortgage rates increase more than 1 percentage point, he said. “Declines in short-term interest rates and initiatives involving rate freezes will reduce the impact somewhat, but interest-rate resets will nevertheless impose stress on many households.”
`Vigorous Response’
In the past, homeowners could refinance, though that option is now “largely” gone because sales of bonds backed by subprime mortgages “have virtually halted,” Bernanke said. “This situation calls for a vigorous response.”
Bernanke didn’t comment in his speech text on the outlook for the economy or interest rates. Traders expect the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point by or at the panel’s next meeting on March 18, based on futures prices.
Bush Guts Intelligence Oversight Board
March 4th, 2008Via: Unbossed:
On Friday afternoon the White House posted without fanfare a new Executive Order that revamps an important though little known intelligence board. There are a few minor changes, but the most radical revision appears to be that the board has now been stripped of nearly all its powers to investigate and check illegal intelligence activities. It’s difficult to see what legitimate reasons there could have been for gutting the oversight activities of the board in this way, and the WH has not explained the changes.
And perhaps not coincidentally, the board has been renamed. Under the older Executive Order from 1993, it was called the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB). Now it has been renamed the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB), suggesting perhaps that the Bush administration had domestic intelligence activities in mind while making these revisions.
PFIAB is tasked with a range of things, but particularly with assessing “the quality, quantity, and adequacy of intelligence collection, of analysis and estimates, and of counterintelligence and other intelligence activities”; and with reviewing the performance of intelligence agencies. Board members are meant to bring an independent point of view to bear on intelligence activities; they cannot be employees of the federal government.
The Price of Wheat is More Than 80% Higher Than a Year Ago
March 4th, 2008A couple of points:
1. Those bulk grains we bought turned out to be our best investment yet.

50KG sacks of maize (left), 25KG sacks of hard wheat berries (right)
2. The corn based ethanol strategy is working perfectly; if potential for kill off is the metric in question.
Via: New York Times:
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the price of wheat is more than 80 percent higher than a year ago, and corn prices are up by a quarter. Global cereal stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 1982.
As usual, the brunt is falling disproportionately on the poor. The F.A.O. estimates that the cereal import bill of the neediest countries will increase by a third for the second year in a row. Prices have gone so high that the World Food Program, which aims to feed 73 million people this year, said it might have to reduce rations or the number of people it will help.
The world has faced periodic bouts when it looked as if population growth would outstrip the food supply. Each time, food production has grown to meet demand. This time it might not be so easy.
Population growth and economic progress are part of the problem. Consumption of meat and other high-quality foods —mainly in China and India— has boosted demand for grain for animal feed. Poor harvests due to bad weather in this country and elsewhere have contributed. High energy prices are adding to the pressures.
Yet the most important reason for the price shock is the rich world’s subsidized appetite for biofuels. In the United States, 14 percent of the corn crop was used to produce ethanol in 2006 — a share expected to reach 30 percent by 2010. This is also cutting into production of staples like soybeans, as farmers take advantage of generous subsidies and switch crops to corn for fuel.
The benefits of this strategy are dubious. A study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development suggested that — absent new technologies — the United States, Canada and the European Union would require between 30 percent and 70 percent of their current crop area if they were to replace 10 percent of their transport fuel consumption with biofuels. And two recent studies suggested that a large-scale effort across the world to grow crops for biofuels would add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere rather than reduce it.
The human costs of this diversion of food into energy are all too evident.
February Earnings
March 4th, 2008In February, Cryptogon and Farmlet earnings from all sources came to a total of $2258.86, or about 4.5X the minimum monthly goal of $500.
February represents the best ever month for earnings.
We were having a very good month to begin with, but then we had a wildcard event. Dagobaz sent $1001! Thank you, Dagobaz. And thanks to all cash contributors.
Amazon sales were very strong. Thank you all for remembering to begin your Amazon sessions via Cryptogon. You guys bought everything from freeze-dried disaster food to glow in the dark condoms to electronics to books of every description.
I quietly created a page on the Store that shows all of the items that Cryptogon readers ordered on Amazon’s U.S. site. (Note: I have no idea who ordered what. Amazon doesn’t provide that information to affiliates.) I take the sales record and feed it into the aStore catalog.
The logic is, if one Cryptogon reader orders something, maybe there are more Cryptogon readers who would be interested in the same item too. (This is me stretching my high powered business acumen to the outer limits. *sarcasm*) Anyway, the feature lives or dies by orders. It’s a bit of a fiddle to keep the list updated. If people use it, great. If not, that’s ok too.
BullionVault users generated $85 in commissions. There were especially large transactions on British sterling denominated accounts. (I convert all BullionVault commissions into dollars for ease of bookkeeping.) Thanks for that.
Thanks also go out to the owners of the following sites for signing up for webhosting with BlueHost:
bewilder.com.au
chunkthis.com
doomers.us
gamegumbo.com
mountainpad.com
I’ve been with BlueHost for three years and, overall, their offering is an unbelievable value. I’ll be renewing for two more years when my current contract runs out next month. I don’t know if they have been improving things behind the scenes, but I had a story go to the top or Reddit recently, and BlueHost cranked it all out. Previously, when stories had gone to the top of Reddit, my site would exceed the allotted CPU time on the server, and they’d cut the site off for about a minute at a time while the traffic was spiking like that. But this last surge was something like 18,000 visits (that’s not page views, but entire sessions) in a 24 hour period. No problem. As someone who has been responsible for providing computer services to organizations, I’m literally in shock by what BlueHost is providing for $6.95 per month.
Last but not least, thanks to Financial Web for continuing their sponsorship of Cryptogon in February.
U.S. Warship Built with Scrap Steel from the Ruins of the World Trade Center
March 4th, 2008“The trophy is meant to give the murderer the same feelings of power he experienced at the time of the kill.”
—Death Reference, Serial Killers
Via: AP:
The USS New York, an amphibious assault ship built with scrap steel from the ruins of the World Trade Center, was christened Saturday as a source of strength and inspiration for the nation.
Thousands of people, including friends and families of those who died in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, gathered near the hulking gray ship, trimmed in red, white and blue banners.
The bow stem, which contains 7.5 tons of steel from the site, bore a shield with two gray bars to symbolize the twin towers and a banner over that declaring “Never Forget,” a slogan among New Yorkers.
“May God bless this ship and all who sail on her,” Dotty England said before smashing a bottle of champagne against it, producing a loud thump to go with the spurting liquid and flying streamers.
Story after story of lives lost in, and touched by, the attacks peppered the ceremony, held under the blazing sun and broadcast on large screens. It all brought back painful memories for New York Police Lt. Matt Murphy. But the reason for his being here, though, was a source of pride, he said.
“I tell you, it’s a fantastic day. Sometimes you think you’re over something,” he said, his eyes welling up as he looked off toward the ship, “and then you realize you’re not completely.”
Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England, husband to Dotty, told the crowd that ship names provide a legacy, and that for their crews they serve as a source of strength and inspiration.
When the attacks occurred, the ship was planned but had no name. Then-New York Gov. George Pataki asked the Navy to commemorate the disaster by reviving the name New York. That required an exception to Navy policy of assigning state names only to nuclear submarines.
The steel from the towers is now part of the ship that splices through the water, leading the way.
“It resurrects the ashes, so to speak, to do great things for our nation,” said Bill Glenn, a spokesman for Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, the ship builder.
UK: Court Gags Ex-SAS Man Who Made Torture Claims
March 3rd, 2008Via: Guardian:
A former SAS soldier was served with a high court order yesterday preventing him from making fresh disclosures about how hundreds of Iraqis and Afghans captured by British and American special forces were rendered to prisons where they faced torture.
Ben Griffin could be jailed if he makes further disclosures about how people seized by special forces were allegedly mistreated and ended up in secret prisons in breach of the Geneva conventions and international law. Griffin, 29, left the British army in 2005 after three months in Baghdad, saying he disagreed with the “illegal” tactics of US troops.
He told a press conference hosted by the Stop the War Coalition this week that individuals detained by SAS troops in a joint UK-US special forces taskforce had ended up in interrogation centres in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Guantánamo Bay. He had not witnessed torture himself but added: “I have no doubt in my mind that non-combatants I personally detained were handed over to the Americans and subsequently tortured.”
Referring to the government’s admission that two US rendition flights containing terror suspects had landed at the British territory of Diego Garcia, Griffin said the use of British territory and airspace “pales into insignificance in light of the fact that it has been British soldiers detaining the victims of extraordinary rendition in the first place”.
The Ministry of Defence said it did not comment on special forces’ activities.
“NINJA” Loans (No Income, No Job, No Assets)
March 3rd, 2008Via: Telegraph:
It is now pretty well established, too, that these loans tended to go not merely to the poorest families, but, in general, were marketed at America’s black and Hispanic populations. They were the most likely to take on the so-called “ninja” loans (no income, no job, no assets). According to one real estate broker in Oakland, all some credulous households were told was: “firma, fecha” – Spanish for “signature, date.”
One family – the husband is a janitor, the wife a cleaner – bought their two bedroom bungalow in Oakland for $420,000 in 2005. Now their mortgage rate has reset and it is on the market for $119,000. It probably won’t fetch the list price.
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Over in Detroit there are now more than a handful of properties on the market at $100 (and no, that’s not a misprint – just search through property website realtor.com to see).
These kind of properties are all being sold by a very specific section of society – the so-called sub-prime buyers with poor credit records – or as Heidi puts it dolefully “It’s just the junk that’s coming back onto the market.”
However this is unlikely to remain the case. As unemployment rises – and it already is, sharply – more middle class families will find themselves out of a job and possibly having to sell. Experts also fear that whereas the so-called teaser rate problem is generally limited to working class families, a different mortgage-related issue could be about to strike the white-collar community.
Millions of relatively well-off families took out adjustable-rate mortgages that allow borrowers to pay so little each month that the amount owed actually increases over time rather than being eroded away. Industry insiders fear that with property prices falling, these families will find themselves facing record levels of negative equity, which may trigger a second tide of defaults.
Chavez Warns of War with Colombia
March 3rd, 2008It’s an energy story. Keeping an eye on the oil.
Via: AP:
Venezuela and Ecuador ordered troops to their borders with Colombia, sharply raising tensions after Colombia killed a top rebel leader on Ecuadorean soil.
President Hugo Chavez on Sunday promised Venezuela would respond militarily if Colombia violates its border, where he ordered tanks as well as thousands of troops. He also ordered closed Venezuela’s embassy in Bogota.
Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa said he deployed troops to the border while also withdrawing his government’s ambassador from Bogota and expelling Colombia’s top diplomat.
“There is no justification,” Correa said Sunday night, snubbing an earlier announcement from Colombia that it would apologize for the military incursion.
Chavez called the killing of rebel leader and spokesman Raul Reyes and 16 other guerrillas on Saturday an attack by a “terrorist state,” saying it shows Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is a “criminal.”
“Mr. Defense Minister, move 10 battalions to the border with Colombia for me, immediately — tank battalions. Deploy the air force,” Chavez said during his weekly TV and radio program. “We don’t want war, but we aren’t going to permit the U.S. empire, which is the master (of Colombia) … to come divide us.”
Correa said Colombia deliberately carried out the strike beyond its borders, flying deep into Ecuador to bomb the rebel camp from the south. The Ecuadorean leader said the rebels were “bombed and massacred as they slept, using precision technology.”
The Colombian military said the camp was located just over a mile from the border.
Colombian officials have long complained that rebels are allowed to take refuge across its borders in both Ecuador and Venezuela.
Colombia said after the assault that FARC “terrorists” including Reyes “have had the custom of killing in Colombia and taking refuge in the territory of neighboring countries.”
In Chile, President Michelle Bachelet offered to mediate in the conflict.
“A situation like this requires an explanation from Colombia to Ecuadoreans, to the Ecuadorean president and to the entire region,” Bachelet said. “We are very worried.”
Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon also offered to helps and urged the countries to begin talking “within the framework of the appropriate regional organizations.”
Pritchard: “I am Now Really Frightened”; Federal Reserve’s Rescue Has Failed
March 3rd, 2008“We are definitely not out of the woods with the subprime debacle. In fact, we are in for a year of steady increases in foreclosures and liquidity problems. There are no buyers for these securities now. If banks are holding these bombs, they’re stuck with them and the clock is ticking.
As those teaser rate loans reset, and f*cked buyers go bankrupt in increasing numbers (see chart above), banks are going to have serious problems.”
Via: Telegraph:
The verdict is in. The Fed’s emergency rate cuts in January have failed to halt the downward spiral towards a full-blown debt deflation. Much more drastic action will be needed.
Yields on two-year US Treasuries plummeted to 1.63pc on Friday in a flight to safety, foretelling financial winter.
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The debt markets are freezing ever deeper, a full eight months into the crunch. Contagion is spreading into the safest pockets of the US credit universe.
It is hard to imagine a more plain-vanilla outfit than the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which manages bridges, bus terminals, and airports.
The authority is a public body, backed by the two states. Yet it had to pay 20pc rates in February after the near closure of the $330bn (£166m) “term-auction” market. It had originally expected to pay 4.3pc, but that was aeons ago in financial time.
“I never thought I would see anything like this in my life,” said James Steele, an HSBC economist in New York.
No sane mortal needs to know what term-auction means, except that it too became a tool of the US credit alchemists. Banks briefly used the market as laboratory for conjuring long-term loans at Alan Greenspan’s giveaway short-term rates. It has come unstuck. Next in line is the $45trillion derivatives market for credit default swaps (CDS).
Last week, the spreads on high-yield US bonds vaulted to 718 basis points. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring corporate default risk in Europe smashed the 600 barrier. We are now far beyond the August spike.
Sub-prime debt is plumbing new depths. A-rated securities issued in early 2007 fell to a record 12.72pc of face value on Friday. The BBB tier fetched 10.42pc. The “toxic” tranches are worthless.
Why won’t it end? Because US house prices are in free fall. The Case-Shiller index for the 20 biggest cities dropped 9.1pc year-on-year in December. The annualised rate of fall was 18pc in the fourth quarter, and gathering speed.


