China’s Quake Aftershock: 5 Million Homeless
June 10th, 2008The scale of this disaster is very difficult to contemplate.
Via: MSNBC:
At the relief operations center in China’s mountainous Qingchuan county, government workers are still in emergency mode nearly a month after the devastating May 12 earthquake. Powerful aftershocks, heavy rains and dangerous “quake lakes” keep them from devoting all their attention to their primary task: getting the county’s residents into tents.
But even as they work to provide temporary shelter, officials are looking ahead to an even more formidable problem: When the ground stops shaking and the dust settles, this county alone will have 250,000 people who will need new homes.
It is not just a question of rebuilding what was here. Some towns lost not only their buildings but also the land they were standing on and scarce cropland when landslides hit from both sides, said Xiang Zhichun a young public affairs worker.
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“A lot of crops were buried, polluted and spoiled,” said Xiang. “After the earthquake there is not enough flat area to live.”
Qingchuan is but one corner of a disaster area roughly the size of Kentucky. And its population accounts for just a fraction of an estimated 5.5 million people left homeless by the earthquake. The number of homes needed may go even higher, suggest some analysts, based on Beijing’s announcement last week that some 15.5 million people have been “relocated” because of the quake — a number that the official Xinhua News Agency published without elaboration.
Shanghai’s Composite Index Declines 7.7%
June 10th, 2008Via: CNN:
Asian markets suffered major losses Tuesday, led down by Shanghai and Hong Kong, where banking and property shares fronted declines.
Investors fretted about the impact of the latest round of anti-inflation measures announced over the weekend.
Shanghai’s Composite Index plunged 7.7% to 3,072.33, its lowest closing level since March 22. Tuesday’s trading was the first since the People’s Bank of China announced it would lift the ratio of reserves banks must set aside as deposits by 1 percentage point. The adjustment comes ahead of consumer-price index data for May due out Thursday.
The benchmark index for the Shenzhen stock market was down 8% at 928.20.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 4.2% at 23,375.52 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gave up 5.4% to 12,789.87.
Chinese banking and property shares were among leading decliners amid concerns about the outlook for corporate earnings, given higher oil prices and the impact of the macroeconomic controls.
Shanghai-listed shares of China Merchants Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank both fell by their daily 10% limit. Shenzhen-listed shares of property developer China Vanke was also limit down 10% before trading was halted.
Britain: Traders Predict House Prices Will Fall by 50% in Four Years
June 10th, 2008Via: Guardian:
The slide in house prices will continue for at least three years and crush the value of a home by almost 50% in real terms, according to a key index of property price futures. Indications from futures trading on long term property prices shows that the average UK home will recover its current value only in 2017.
By the end of this year prices will be down by 10% and by a further 10.5% in 2009, according to the index. Prices will keep dropping through 2010 and cut values by 23.5% when they hit rock bottom in 2011. House prices will then begin a slow climb back to current market values over a period of about six years.
If an average retail price inflation rate of 4% is included in the calculation and in addition the 8% drop in prices over the last eight months already registered by the Halifax index, the fall in values over almost four years will reach 47.5% in real terms.
Britain: Emergency Procedures Activated Ahead of Tanker Driver Strike
June 10th, 2008Via: Guardian:
Downing Street today urged motorists not to indulge in panic-buying as the government confirmed that it had activated emergency procedures in preparation for a planned strike by tanker drivers.
The prime minister’s spokesman said that it was “disappointing” that the four-day strike, which is due to start at 6am on Friday and which could affect deliveries to up to 10% of filling stations, was still set to go ahead.
“The most responsible thing the public can do is to continue to buy as normal,” the spokesman said.
Ministers have already activated procedures intended to safeguard fuel for emergency services and to ensure that stocks are moved around the country to areas where there are shortages.
But the government believes it is “inevitable” that some stations could run out of fuel if the strike goes ahead.
One effect of the contingency arrangements, which were last used at the time of the strike at the Grangemouth refinery in April, is to allow oil companies to share information about their supplies by exempting them from the anti-cartel rules that normally prevent this kind of information-sharing.
About 500 drivers who work for haulage companies Hoyer UK and Suckling Transport are due to go on strike. They are the sole suppliers to around 1,000 Shell petrol stations, mainly in south-east England, the north west, central Scotland and the Midlands.
The prime minister’s spokesman told reporters today that the government was “encouraged” that both sides were taking their dispute to Acas, the conciliation service. “We would encourage both sides to get back to the table and to reach a resolution,” he said.
“We do not believe that any strike action is justified because that would disproportionately impact on the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the country not involved in this dispute.”
Asked if he feared panic-buying, he said: “We want the public to continue to buy as normal so as to avoid creating problems that might otherwise not exist.”
John Hutton, the business secretary, activated the emergency procedures to ensure continuity of supply without publicity on Friday. Downing Street described them as “established procedures”.
Oil, Dollar Form Record Negative Correlation
June 9th, 2008Mmm hmm.
Via: Bloomberg:
When leaders of the Group of Eight industrialized countries meet June 13-14 in Japan, they may look to the joint actions taken ahead of a similar event in 2000, when oil prices were surging and a major currency was at a record low.
On Sept. 22, 2000, U.S. President Bill Clinton ordered the release of oil from the nation’s strategic reserve as crude had reached a 10-year high. Concurrently, the central banks of the U.S., Europe, Japan, U.K. and Canada bought euros in the first- ever concerted attempt to stem the currency’s slide, after it fell below 85 U.S. cents for the first and only time.
“The market has linked a weaker U.S. dollar to higher oil prices, and vice-versa,” DBS Group Holdings Ltd. said in a report. “That’s why a lot is riding on the weekend meeting.”
The chart of the day shows the correlation between the daily percentage change in the dollar index and crude oil, which formed a record negative last week. The link between the two peaked in positive territory on December 18, 2000, shortly after the unprecedented dual intervention and a Supreme Court ruling that cemented George W. Bush’s election victory over then-Vice President Al Gore.
The chart also shows that the most-recent positive correlation was in September 2007, after the Federal Reserve started cutting its benchmark rate in response to the worsening U.S. credit crisis.
Lowering Expectations
The negative correlation is “either because people are marking down their expectations for the U.S. outlook, or oil exporters wanting to preserve their returns do raise the price,” Sophia Drossos, chief currency strategist at Morgan Stanley and former manager of the Federal Reserve’s foreign-exchange portfolio, said in an interview June 6.
“We should see that negative correlation — that inverse correlation — persist, and if we do see energy prices rise, I think the dollar will fall,” she said.
The G-8 — the U.S., Japan, Canada, Germany, France, U.K., Italy and Russia — along with China, India and South Korea, which will also send officials for meetings on the sidelines, account for about 65 percent of global energy demand.
The negative oil-dollar correlation wasn’t the only record set last week. Oil rose $10.75, or 8.4 percent, to $138.54 a barrel in New York on June 6, the biggest-ever gain in dollar terms. The gain alone almost equaled the lowest price for a barrel of crude the past decade, set Dec. 10, 1998.
New York Fed Chief Urges Global Bank Framework
June 9th, 2008Why now?
Below is a screen shot of Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve:

So, what happens after the banks default on the loans that they’ve taken out from the Federal Reserve (that unprecedented, nearly vertical blue line on the chart above)?
Ah, yes. The phrase, Global Bank Framework might make a lot of sense, if the biggest banks in the world go bust. Actually, they went bust already, but the Fed ate it, for a time. Again, consult that unprecedented, nearly vertical blue line on the chart above if you doubt it.
Via: Financial Times:
Banks and investment banks whose health is crucial to the global financial system should operate under a unified regulatory framework with “appropriate requirements for capital and liquidity”, according to Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Writing in Monday’s Financial Times, Mr Geithner, a key US policymaker throughout the credit crisis and one of the main architects of the rescue of Bear Stearns, says that the US Federal Reserve should play a “central role” in the new regulatory framework, working closely with supervisors in the US and round the world.
“At present the Fed has broad responsibility for financial stability not matched by direct authority and the consequences of the actions we have taken in this crisis make it more important that we close that gap,” Mr Geithner says, in an excerpt of a speech to be delivered today at the Economic Club of New York.
The credit crisis has heightened pressure on US policymakers to consider sweeping changes to a regulatory system for financial institutions which has commercial banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup regulated by the Fed and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers more loosely regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Mr Geithner called the system “a confusing mix of diffused accountability, regulatory competition and a complex web of rules that create perverse incentives and leave huge opportunities for arbitrage and evasion”.
However, legislation to overhaul US financial regulation is unlikely to start advancing through Congress until next year when the new administration takes office.
In his speech, Mr Geithner will also say the Fed is examining whether to make “permanent” some of the new liquidity facilities put in place during the credit crisis, and called for central banks to establish a “standing network of currency swaps, collateral policies and account arrangements” to bolster liquidity during a future crisis.
Meanwhile, Malcolm Knight, the general manager of the Bank of International Settlements, the Basel-based central banking group, told the FT that the financial system now faces a growing risk of exchange-rate volatility as investors and central banks grapple with the impact of rising commodity prices and other inflationary pressures.
“It is not clear if the rest of the world is going to continue to fund the US current account deficit at current levels of exchange rates,” he said. “The pattern of the exchange rates is subject to considerable uncertainty now.”
The comments are likely to be closely watched by investors and policymakers, since they come at a time of renewed market focus on the outlook for the dollar relative to the euro and other currencies. Last week, Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, broke with the US central bank’s traditional silence on currency matters to make clear that it does not want any further dollar weakness.
While the dollar rallied on Mr Bernanke’s remarks, it retreated later in the week after European Central bank comments suggested an interest rate rise and as the price of crude oil soared, heightening inflation fears.
“There is a perception that after a long period of quiescent inflation, things are changing,” Mr Knight said. “This is quite visible in terms of commodity prices in energy markets but also in terms of what is happening with other commodities too.”
Research Credit: Pookie
British Police Opening Thousands of Safe Deposit Boxes, Searching for Gold, Other “Criminal Assets”
June 9th, 2008Via: BBC:
Six suitcases packed with suspected gold dust and about £30m in cash has been found during searches of safety deposit centres in London, police say.
…
The Met Police believe criminals used the centres in Park Lane, Hampstead and Edgware to store criminal assets.
Armed police continue to guard the buildings as specialist officers search the 7,000 safety deposit boxes.
So far only a third of the boxes have been opened and the finds have also included a firearm, counterfeit currency, several works of Renaissance art and a substantial amount of high value jewellery.
Speaking after the raids Commander Allan Gibson said: “Search teams have been working around the clock to open all the boxes at the location and are progressing well, although we are likely to remain at the locations for some time yet.
Cryptogon Readers Sign Up for Hosting with BlueHost
June 9th, 2008Thanks to the owners of shaw8.com and comradesimba.com for signing up for hosting with BlueHost. Cryptogon received $130.
Australian PM Wants Europe-Style Asia-Pacific Union
June 8th, 2008Sure.
Via: Reuters:
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Wednesday that he wants to see an Asia-Pacific Community by 2020 structured similar to the European Union.
Rudd said there was a “brittleness” in bilateral ties, and that while regional bodies like ASEAN and APEC had achieved much, there was a need for a region-wide architecture to tackle the growing challenges of the Asia-Pacific century.
“Terrorism in Southeast Asia will remain a continuing challenge. Across wider continental Asia, the rise of India and China represent great economic, environmental, energy policy and security reverberations for the future,” Rudd said in a speech to the Asia Society Australiasia in Sydney.
“I believe it is time that we started to think about where we want to be with our regional architecture in 2020. We need to have a vision for an Asia-Pacific Community,” he said, adding the world could learn from Europe where centuries of animosity had been transformed into transnational cooperation.
Rudd said an Asia-Pacific Community, which should include the United States, Japan, China, India, Indonesia and the other states of the region, would encourage cooperation and action on economic, political and security issues but also develop a “genuine and comprehensive sense of community”.
“The danger in not acting is that we run the risk of succumbing to the perception that future conflict within our region may somehow be inevitable,” said Rudd.
“At present none of our existing regional mechanisms as currently configured are capable of achieving these purposes.”
Rudd, a Mandarin-speaking former diplomat, came to power last November and aims to forger closer ties with the region. He visited Beijing earlier this year, where he won wide praise, and he is set to travel to Japan and Indonesia later this month.
Bilderberg 2008 Photos
June 8th, 2008Via: Cryptome:
The Bilderberg Meeting is taking place at the Westfields Marriott Hotel, Chantilly, VA, June 6-8, 2008.


